Missouri Governor Matt Blunt's decision to retire at the end of this term could produce a domino effect that helps a former Democratic rival win a seat in Congress. Blunt's exit prompted Republican Rep. Kenny Hulshof to enter the race for governor this week, leaving his 9th District seat for a chance at the top post in Jefferson City.

Hulshof would have been difficult to defeat, as his district gave President Bush 59% of the vote in 2004. But the DCCC had already been spending money on radio ads in the district before Hulshof announced his retirement, and they're likely to continue targeting the open seat.

Prior to Hulshof's decision, the leading Democratic challenger was State Rep. Judy Baker, whose lack of name recognition and financial support may have been too much to overcome against the 6-term incumbent. But the open seat produced much excitement among Democrats, and caused many candidates more well-known than Baker to consider a run.

One such candidate is former State House Speaker Steve Gaw, whom the Columbia Tribune reports is likely to enter the race. Gaw was first elected to the Legislature in 1992, representing all of Randolph County and parts of three others. He was elected Speaker in 1996 after just four years in the State House. In 2000, he ran unsuccessfully for secretary of state, losing 51%-45% to Matt Blunt, who used that post as a springboard to the governorship. Gaw has not run for office since his loss to Blunt, and now Blunt's exit could be the impetus of his return.

Other potential Democratic challengers include former Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell, who was elected to the 2nd highest post in the state in 2000. The Tribune reported, however, that Maxwell is unlikely to run. Wes Shoemyer, a socially conservative, first-term state senator, is still considering a race.

Potential Republican successors to Hulshof include Greg Steinhoff, the director of the Department of Economic Development; State Rep. Bob Onder; State Rep. Joe Smith; and Jason Van Eaton, a former aide to Sen. Kit Bond, the Tribune reports.

The expansive 9th District includes all of 22 counties, as well as the university city of Columbia, the outskirts of the St. Louis metropolitan area, and the entire northeastern section of the state. Democrats were elected here for 34 years before Hulshof first won in 1996. The mix of urban, suburban and rural voters makes this a difficult race for any candidate to win, but will likely remain on national Democrats' target list.

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

He can't help himself, it seems: After wins in Iowa and South Carolina, Barack Obama has raised $32 million in January, the Associated Press' Jim Kuhnhenn reports. $32 million is an incredible quarter. But you read that right: Obama didn't raise that money in a quarter, he raised it in a month.

If Obama becomes the Democratic nominee, his coffers will swell so fast it may not matter who Republicans put up. Recall that, in 2004, after Democrats nominated John Kerry, the GOP spent the next month virtually alone on the air criticizing Kerry. No matter who Republicans nominate, Obama will have enough money to begin hammering them immediately, while the GOP hunkers down to raise money.

One has to believe that Hillary Clinton will be well-funded too, though not to the extent Obama might be. Not in recent history has the entire Democratic Party been better-funded than Republicans, and the gap this year could be enough to truly change the political landscape.

As Senate and House committees announce their fundraising totals today after filing with the FEC, Democrats continue their dominance. The DSCC reports $29.4 million in the bank and a $1.5 million debt, while Senate Republicans have just under $12.1 million on hand, with no debt, Roll Call and the New York Times report. On the House side, the DCCC kept $35 million along with a $1.3 million debt, while Republicans, finally out of the red, have $5 million on hand and obligations of about $2 million.

Numbers for the DNC and RNC were not immediately available, though we'll have those to you by this afternoon.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Time Magazine will lead this week with a look at the rise of the younger voter, spurred to the polls by Barack Obama's star power. If that sounds familiar, replace the name "Barack Obama" with "Howard Dean" or any of the large number of candidates who supposedly have relied on the youth vote over the years, and one or many news outlets wrote the same story then.

Most candidates who rely on the youth vote end up disappointed at the end when younger voters don't bother showing up. But Obama remains a front-runner after big victories in two states. For all the talk of younger voters flocking toward their favored candidate, though, the numbers tell a less spectacular story: Yes, youth turnout is up. But, the numbers show, not that much.

Those between the ages of 17-29 who are eligible to caucus made up 22% of the Iowa electorate this year, up only 5 points from 2004. In New Hampshire, turnout among those 18-29 was 18%, up 4 points from four years ago. In South Carolina, the 14% of the electorate who are young was up 5 points.

Many more young people turned out this year, but turnout was up across the board, and youth voters rose only slightly more than the population at large. Perhaps more telling, younger voters are making up smaller portions of the electorate. Those under 29 made up just 9% in Florida, and the numbers have decreased in each successive state.

Obama is doing well among younger voters, but it's not a key portion of his coalition. Obama's success rests on a more traditional base of Democrats. As Gordon Fischer, a top Obama adviser and former Iowa Democratic Party chairman, told Politics Nation a few months ago, the youth vote is the icing on the cake, but the campaign is still baking the cake.

Finally, it seems, a campaign that the media says will benefit from a big youth boom is not letting the hype go to its head. Ask President Dean how much good the promise of a younger voter surge actually does.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:25 AM | Email Author | Permalink

With the primary coming on May 20, filing for Kentucky federal races closed on Tuesday, as eight Democrats lined up for the right to take on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Several potential top-tier challengers, including Congressman Ben Chandler, state Auditor Crit Luallen and former Attorney General Greg Stumbo all passed on the race, though McConnell does not have a free ride.

Attorney and Iraq war veteran Andrew Horne, a top DCCC recruit in 2006 who nonetheless lost his primary to now-Rep. John Yarmuth, announced his candidacy weeks ago. Still, it may be the second time Horne can't make it through a primary. Wealthy businessmen Greg Fischer and Bruce Lunsford are also in the race, and both are willing to spend money to get their campaigns off the ground.

Fischer is a first-time candidate, while Lunsford ran for governor in 2003 and 2007, losing in both primaries. This time around, he's been encouraged to run by DSCC chair Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and even new Governor Steve Beshear, who called Lunsford in December, the Lexington Herald-Leader wrote.

All three top candidates face a steep uphill climb. A poll this month, conducted for McConnell's campaign, showed the incumbent 15 points ahead of Lunsford, 22 points up on Fischer and 23 ahead of Horne. Through the end of the 3rd quarter, McConnell had more than $6.8 million in the bank, an almost insurmountable hurdle for any challenger.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Good Thursday morning. It's the last day of January, but given the weather in Washington yesterday, it feels like the first week of the month. Here's hoping Punxsutawney Phil declares winter over this Saturday. The rest of what Washington's watching:

-- After another tough week, the House is out of session again today (Were they even around? We honestly forgot. Oh, that's right, State of the Union and then the stimulus package). The Senate Finance Committee, meanwhile, advanced their own version of a stimulus bill to the floor, capping eligibility for rebate checks at $150,000 -- meaning single members of Congress won't be getting rebates -- and adding energy tax breaks and cuts for those building houses, CongressDaily reports (subs req'd). Today, the bill hits the floor, where it needs 60 votes to take the place of the House version, which Majority Leader Harry Reid plans to offer today.

-- Last night's debate brought a new-look GOP field. The media wanted to see the Mitt Romney-John McCain throw-down, and they got it. The two barked back and forth over McCain's recent criticism of Romney for advocating time tables to get out of Iraq, an assertion Romney rejects outright, for so long that even Mike Huckabee complained about being left out, Jonathan Martin writes. But, an important opportunity missed last night: A focus on the economy. Changing the course of the debate to favor a tanking economy is Romney's last chance to get back in front, but last night, heading into the biggest election of his life, he failed to do so.

-- Like him or not, McCain is the front-runner, and somebody has to take action if they're going to stop him. Maybe Romney isn't the person to do so; maybe it's Huckabee. After another stellar debate in which he came across as reasonable, humorous, responsible and tried to act the commander in chief, Huckabee goes into Super Tuesday with no money and not much of an official campaign organization. That's exactly how he went into Iowa, and thanks to an underground network of supporters, he won. It's not hard to imagine Huckabee taking several Southern states and performing surprisingly well in some others, while Romney can't manage one win next week. If that happens, McCain will still be in front, but he'll have to turn his attention to some serious Huckabusiness.

-- Regardless of Huckabee's success, though, we couldn't help but remember 2004, when Edwards survived to face John Kerry one-on-one. A late debate performance was meant more as an audition as the attack dog, in order to convince Kerry he could serve as Vice President. The four candidates on stage last night are all despised by various wings of their party. Huckabee is not well-liked by the Club for Growth, for instance, while Romney is unpopular with evangelicals. Ron Paul, it seems, is unpopular with everyone. McCain's had a history of sticking his finger in the GOP's eye; what better way to do so than by picking Huckabee as a running mate, just to irritate his party further?

-- Further evidence of Romney's dropping off as a strong contender: Five days before Super Tuesday and he still has not made a move to get his advertisements on the air, as this space has reported and as Jim Geraghty and the AP report today. Still, the point Geraghty makes is well-taken: Romney won big in Wyoming and Nevada, where he spent time organizing, and beat McCain by a narrower margin in Michigan. If Romney could spend his money on building big organizations, he'd be in good position. But that's not something he can do in five days.

-- To be fair, McCain and Huckabee aren't going up on television either, leaving only Democrats on the air, the New York Times writes. But that's not unusual for either: McCain is relying on the free media that's brought him this far (Never underestimate how much the press loves access to a candidate). And Huckabee is relying on word-of-mouth campaigning that got him a win in Iowa. Of course, the fact that neither has the money to run a big ad campaign makes the decision not to do so a lot easier.

-- By the way, consider a weakened GOP base: Rush Limbaugh is furious that McCain would even be allowed to use the party label, much less serve as standard-bearer. Conservatives not freaked out by the possibility of a President Obama or a President Clinton vote by staying home. And, chronically under-funded, the ticket can't compete with the hundreds of millions -- perhaps more -- that the Democratic team brings in. It is entirely likely, from the presidential level down, that this could be a doomsday year for Republicans, perhaps on a scale that makes 2006 look small by comparison.

-- Not all is bad news for the GOP this morning: Their old pal Ralph Nader is considering a new presidential bid, Bloomberg reports. If the presidential race is anywhere near close, Republicans will love it if Nader is back on the ballot. Nader will spend a month assessing his fundraising viability and hiring staff, he told reporters as he filed papers to form an exploratory committee.

-- Downer Of The Day: Last week, the conversations centered on two contested conventions, with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton leaning on John Edwards delegates to win and Republicans in a three- or four-way melee for first place. Sadly, as happens every year, the idea of a contested convention is pleasant, but it's not going to happen. The Democratic race is a two-way contest with just 26 Edwards delegates up for grabs (fewer, actually -- his Iowa delegates haven't been picked yet, meaning they'll go with Clinton or Obama). On the GOP side too, there aren't enough delegates allocated yet to make the case against an overwhelming nominee. Contested conventions are fun to talk about, but there's a reason one hasn't happened in decades. This year, too, there will likely be two consensus choices.

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton and Obama debate in Los Angeles tonight, after Obama holds a town hall meeting there. Also in L.A., McCain wins backing from California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Huckabee addresses the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, while Mitt Romney has tour stops in Long Beach, Fountain Valley and San Diego.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

To his credit, John Edwards does more than just talk about poverty. Edwards has taken volunteers to New Orleans to help rebuild houses, started One Corps to encourage more people to volunteer in their communities and spent his own time lending a hand on numerous occasions around the country.

After announcing he would suspend his campaign today in the same Ninth Ward neighborhood where he launched his White House bid more than a year ago, Edwards rolled up his sleeves and lent a hand in Habitat for Humanity's Musicians' Village, helping out on a couple of houses currently under construction.

Sometimes, though, it takes a professional. One Habitat volunteer familiar with Edwards' work on the two houses reports the now-former candidate, in the process of building a railing, screwed in several spindles on a rather crooked angle. Plus, the volunteer says, "I think he stripped a bunch of the screws." One possible explanation may be Edwards' assistant: His son Jack lent a helping hand.

Edwards then headed to another house, where he found his calling: He reportedly excelled at putting up siding.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Virginia Republican Tom Davis announced today that he will step down from Congress at the end of the year, though he left open the possibility of running for office again someday. The move was not entirely surprising since Davis removed his name from consideration for the upcoming Senate race in Virginia.

"I want to emphasize that I am not closing the door on future public service, but after 29 years in office, winning 11 elections, I think it is time for a respite," Davis said in a released statement.

Davis initially told supporters he would run for Senate if Republican John Warner retired. But after Warner announced he would be leaving the chamber, the Virginia GOP voted to nominate its candidate through a convention, rather than a primary. A convention gave a big advantage to former Governor Jim Gilmore, whom the conservative base in the state would surely support over the moderate Davis.

Davis was first elected to the Northern Virginia-based 11th District in 1994. Shortly after being elected, Davis was named chairman of the Government Reform and Oversight Committee's D.C. subcommittee, and in 2003 became chairman of the full committee, surpassing a number of Republicans on the committee with more seniority.

Davis has remained active on issues pertaining to the nation's capital, and most recently worked with D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton on a drive to give the District a full voting member of the House. He has jokingly been referred to as the Congressman from the Orange Line, the subway route that travels through his district.

Davis was elected NRCC chairman in 1998, and a successful election cycle won him re-election to the post in 2000. In 2002 he worked with Karl Rove on redistricting plans across the country that helped Republicans boost their majority.

Virginia's 11th District includes much of Fairfax County, including the bustling Tyson's Corner, a massive junction of highways and office parks, located 10 miles outside of D.C. The entire region has been trending Democratic for some time, helping provide winning margins for Democrats in recent state legislative elections. But Davis's tenure and moderate voting record has helped him remain in office.

However, in 2006 he won with just 55% against a little-known and underfunded Democrat. Despite the vote of confidence he gave in his retirement announcement that Republicans will keep the seat, Davis has previously admitted the GOP will be hard pressed to win here if he retired.

Democrat Gerry Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, has already formed an exploratory committee for the seat. His position as the supervisors board chair gives him a similar spotlight as that of a city mayor, and it is the same office Davis held before being elected in 1994. Other Democrats who have been waiting for Davis to retire will likely join the race as well, and depending on who Republicans can recruit, this should be one of the party's best chances at a pick-up in the country.

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

In the race for the Democratic Senate nomination in Oregon, Portland attorney Steve Novick is running as the decided underdog. He trails House Speaker Jeff Merkley in money raised, institutional support and endorsements from prominent Oregon Democratic organizations.

Still, let no one say that Novick is out of the race. He's certainly got creativity wrapped up, as his latest television ad demonstrates:

Challengers low in the polls and off the mainstream radar screen are frequently overlooked and forced to do something off the wall to raise their profiles. Most of the time, the gambits don't work. Occasionally, though, they launch a candidate's unlikely success: Think Paul Wellstone's fantastic ads during his inaugural Senate race in Minnesota. Can Gordon Smith open a beer with his hook? We don't think so.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Kentucky Republican Ron Lewis will no longer seek re-election to his 2nd District seat this year, his office revealed yesterday in a story filled with the bizarre twists of old-school politics. Lewis's re-election paperwork had already been turned in by the state's January 29 candidate filing deadline. But as Josh Kraushaar reports, some 11th hour funny business ensued as Lewis tried to ensure his successor.

Daniel London, Lewis's chief of staff, sent his wife to the Kentucky Secretary of State's office to file her husband's paperwork to run for the seat. While there, she also withdrew Lewis's name from the ballot. Their apparent scheme would have allowed London no primary competition, and forced national Republicans to back the unopposed nominee in the general.

It almost worked. But, the Louisville Courier-Journal reports, State Senator Brett Guthrie heard about Lewis's impending retirement and rushed to the Secretary of State's office to file his own paperwork with little time to spare.

Republican officials in the state, including Senator Mitch McConnell, seemed to frown upon Lewis not announcing his retirement before the filing deadline, thereby not allowing prospective candidates time to mull their options. In a release, McConnell stated that he is "delighted" that Guthrie entered the race, but made no mention of London. NRCC spokesperson Ken Spain called Guthrie an "'A' candidate."

Guthrie and London will now face off in the May 20 Republican primary. The winner will face one of two Democrats in the general election -- State Senator David Boswell and Davies County Judge Executive Reid Haire.

The 2nd District of Kentucky includes all of 20 counties mostly south of Louisville, as well as a small part of Louisville's Jefferson County. This was President Bush's best-performing district in 2004, winning 65%. Lewis had won mostly lopsided races since entering Congress in a 1994 special election. In 2006, however, Democrat Mike Weaver, a conservative state representative and Vietnam War veteran, held Lewis to 55%.

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

John Edwards' unexpected announcement that he will drop out of the race has stolen what was supposed to be Rudy Giuliani's day. The former New York Mayor, who ignored early contests in hopes of relying on his national name recognition to sweep to a February 5 win, saw his strategy collapse thanks to a distant third-place finish in Florida last night. He is widely expected to head to California today, drop out of the race and back John McCain for the GOP nomination.

Giuliani's announcement, as Ben Smith and David Paul Kuhn write, could mark the end of September 11 as a major factor in American politics. Joe Biden famously mocked Giuliani's sentence structure as "a noun and a verb and 9/11," and the failure of that message led directly to Giuliani's demise.

That's not to say the campaign was doomed from the start: Giuliani brought a solid message of competent, even exceptional management to the race. But he played those messages up too late, ignoring early warning signs and relying on a broken strategy.

Strategists and future candidates can take important lessons from Giuliani's failed campaign: First, and most importantly, a campaign needs oxygen. Giuliani, who spent the plurality of his campaign working the Sunshine State and ignoring Iowa and New Hampshire, led in polls until just after the kick-off caucus and primary. After a week of media attention on winners Mike Huckabee and John McCain, and on second-place finisher Mitt Romney, Giuliani's numbers collapsed as voters read about other candidates non-stop.

Second, Giuliani failed to take a risk. The poet Terence argued that fortune favors the bold. In presidential politics, too, playing defense gets you nowhere. The only way to win is to fight for it, tooth and nail, in the earliest contests.

Giuliani and Romney, throughout 2007, were akin to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the Democratic side: All four were seen as 800-pound gorillas, and all four did not want to engage the other on unfamiliar territory, worried that a loss would be seen as a crushing blow. The difference: Clinton and Obama both competed in Iowa and New Hampshire, splitting the vote and emerging to avoid each other, again, on February 5. Giuliani virtually ceded Iowa and New Hampshire to Romney (giving Huckabee and McCain an opening), betting on facing him successfully in Florida and later.

But when Giuliani's main rival became the equally well-known McCain, who had benefited from a month of good press, that strategy collapsed. Previous candidates from New York City have had a hard time being elected governor of the state, much less being elected President. The next person who tries (attention, Mr. Bloomberg) needs to keep in mind an important lesson: You're a celebrity in New York City. In Iowa and New Hampshire, and continuing through other early primary states, you have to beg and plead for a vote just like everyone else.

Finally, many have argued that Giuliani was simply outside the GOP mainstream, and that the positions he took would have killed him in the end. That's probably accurate, given the attitude with which he addressed controversial stands on gay rights, abortion and gun control. Had Giuliani instead come out aggressively pushing back, insisting that his positions were mischaracterized or that his insistence on conservative judges would make up the difference, he might have found more success. Letting rivals pigeon-hole him as a liberal with three weddings under his belt was too much.

A campaign can't survive without oxygen, future presidential consultants and managers would do well to note, and Giuliani's strategy of skipping early contests was the first sign of the campaign's impending doom. As Romney, Clinton and Obama discovered, even a loss can keep you in the news and at the front of the pack. If Giuliani had competed and won in Iowa and New Hampshire, he would have run away with the nomination. Had he competed and lost, he would have at least been able to finish ahead of Ron Paul and Fred Thompson, and he could have built momentum instead of hoping to stay afloat long enough to survive. As he drops out of the race, Giuliani trails even Paul in delegates accumulated.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

John Edwards will use a speech in New Orleans today to drop out of the presidential race, MSNBC's Chuck Todd reports today. The last major casualty in the Democratic race before the nomination is decided, Edwards is ending his campaign in the same city he launched his bid in late 2006.

Edwards' exit will likely aid Barack Obama in some northern states, where liberals can't wrap their minds around Hillary Clinton, and will help Clinton in the South, where race now becomes more of a factor in many voters' minds. Clinton, too, will likely benefit from Edwards' labor backing; Obama has shown a marked lack of ability to win union support, while Clinton has backing from as many major national unions as Edwards did.

The real winner: CNN, which holds the race's first one-on-one debate tomorrow night in Los Angeles. With Edwards out of the race, there's no one left to play peace-maker between Clinton and Obama.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:10 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Good Wednesday morning. For the sake of many in the press corps, who have seen their hard-living ways catch up to them, it's a wonderful thing that the primaries are over early in the evening this year. Then, those of us on the brink of catching our deaths can actually get some sleep. Before we pass on to the great political pages in the sky, here's what Washington is watching:

-- The House is not in session today, though yesterday it passed the economic stimulus package by an approximately 10-1 margin. The measure now moves to the Senate, which feels somewhat snubbed for being left out of the negotiations between the House and the White House, and has its own plan to offer. That could throw a monkey wrench in hopes by President Bush and Speaker Pelosi to just get the darned thing passed. The House, seemingly resting up for battle with the upper chamber, is out of session today.

-- Last night's Florida win for John McCain perpetuated the front-runner storyline in a dramatic way. The media consensus, at the moment, is that McCain is the nominee in waiting. "Only McCain left standing," writes CQ's Craig Crawford. "For McCain, Momentum That May Be Hard To Stop," heads the Post's Dan Balz. The win, Adam Nagourney wrote, "raises the hurdles for [Mitt] Romney." While many suggested yesterday that Florida was a must-win for him, this morning many are discussing just how crucial Florida was for Romney, instead. The Florida primary was going to be a game-changer in favor of either McCain or Romney, and it certainly succeeded.

-- But the media may be racing toward a conclusion too quickly. To be certain, there have to be dozens of conservative radio hosts around the country who loathe John McCain and everything they think he stands for. Those hosts reach millions of people -- heck, more people listen to Rush Limbaugh on a daily basis than watch Fox News, CNN and MSNBC combined. As the Washington Times' Don Lambro points out, as McCain gets closer to the nomination, those hosts won't quiet down; they're just getting louder.

-- In fact, one might argue that Romney has an easier path to the nomination now than he did before losing Florida. With Rudy Giuliani out of the race, Romney's the only executive. With Mike Huckabee all but dead in the water and flat broke, Romney is the lone anti-McCain figure in the race. That's his new pitch, NBC/NJ's Erin McPike writes: It's a conservative versus John McCain. If he can convince voters that's actually the matchup they get, Romney -- if Republicans on Capitol Hill are to be believed -- would have to try to lose. Fortunately for McCain, though, Republicans on the Hill have shown a propensity to incorrectly gauge their base from time to time, and a win last night in a closed GOP primary showed the base might be just fine with the maverick.

-- Instead, it was Romney who headlines portray this morning as on the way to his own funeral. The AP's headline defines just how the media is looking at his second-place showing: "Romney vows to carry on campaign." That's not the message a successful candidate projects, that's the message of someone about to drop out. And, to be fair, that's probably not Romney. He came close last night, chased a lead opponent from the race and now has the matchup that probably suits him best. Still, with no events other than the Simi Valley debate on his docket today -- one has to imagine a sit-down with Mrs. Romney and all the little Romneys to discuss financial matters -- he's not acting like it's full speed ahead. When are those Super Tuesday ads going up?

-- On the Democratic side, HILLARY CLINTON WON A HUGE VICTORY LAST NIGHT! That's our lede, A01, right in front. Well, not really. Every now and then, the press reports on the efforts of one group to convince us what to report and what to value. How very meta. Clinton's campaign tried that yesterday, hoping to convince reporters that Florida was just as important -- if not more so -- than South Carolina, where Barack Obama came away with a big win. Clinton landed in Davie, Florida after polls closed last night for what her camp billed as a victory rally, and we're certain she'll win a few headlines, mostly in Florida. But it really didn't help her cause when MSNBC, among others, read disclaimers about Florida offering no delegates any time they talked about the Democratic side.

-- On the other hand, Florida Democrats offered two points about their party's nomination contest: First, in a vacuum, Hillary Clinton is still the front-runner. It wasn't a complete vacuum -- we suppose Obama's campaign had a few ads on cable news networks -- but it was nothing like the saturation level that happened in the first four early states. Aided by a lack of attention, Clinton won: She is therefore the default candidate, the one Democrats pick when they don't know much about the other guys. On February 5, Clinton can win every place no one watches, forcing Obama and John Edwards to find every delegate and play everywhere.

-- Second, and on the flip side of the above, Clinton won by just 17 points, about half of what she led by a year ago when a Quinnipiac poll showed her up by 36 (see all the Florida polls here). Nationally, Clinton holds a 9.7-point edge over Obama, according to the latest RCP Democratic Average. That's way down from the near-30 point lead she held through October. Obama has closed the gap enough to eliminate much of Clinton's default status. The default candidate, by the way, has a hard time winning votes back once they're lost. If Obama succeeds in overtaking Clinton, she will have a terribly difficult time coming back. Given polls in strange states like Colorado, where Obama's up by 2, he may be on the verge of doing just that.

-- Unthinkable Scenario Of The Day: We're not picking on Zogby, they just offer the best example of the lesson that politics is unpredictable. Their telephone survey of 364 likely Republicans, conducted 7/12-14 last year, showed Fred Thompson with 22% and Rudy Giuliani with 21%, followed by Romney's 11%, McCain at 9% and Huckabee at just 5%. Thompson and Giuliani, who led the national polls all year, are gone. Laggards Romney, McCain and Huckabee are still standing. Remember this in four years: Do not pay attention to national polls in presidential primaries.

-- Today On The Trail: Before Republicans head to the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California to debate, Huckabee has a fundraiser in Newport Beach, meets with religious leaders in Westlake Village and holds a fundraiser in Thousand Oaks. McCain has media stops in Miami and Burbank before the debate, while Romney goes straight to the debate. Clinton hits North Little Rock for a town hall, then heads to Atlanta to address the National Baptist Convention and the Georgia Dems' Jefferson-Jackson dinner. Edwards delivers a major speech on poverty in New Orleans before heading to the Georgia Democratic event as well. Obama has rallies planned in Denver and Phoenix as his February 5 sprint is already in full swing.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

John McCain won the Florida primary, along with the state's 57 delegates tonight. For complete coverage, and minute-by-minute results as they came in, check out the RCP Blog.

Multiple media outlets confirm that tonight's disappointing finish will end Rudy Giuliani's campaign. He will fly to California tomorrow to offer his backing to McCain.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Chris Van Hollen today tapped three trusted lieutenants to head up a pivotal program that helped the party pick up dozens of Republican-held seats last year. Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Alabama Rep. Artur Davis and Iowa freshman Bruce Braley will co-chair the Red-to-Blue program, Van Hollen announced today.

The program, which targets promising recruits running against GOP incumbents, rewards prospects for proving fundraising and campaigning abilities by providing financing and assistance. It is also a leading indicator for which Republican members the committee views as most vulnerable.

Van Hollen and Wasserman Schultz co-chaired the successful program in 2006, helping raise more than $22.6 million for 56 candidates, according to the DCCC. In 2004, Red-to-Blue raised $7.5 million for 27 candidates. In all, 42 new Democrats were elected to Congress in 2006, including 24 who defeated GOP incumbents and eight who won an open seat that had been vacated by a Republican.

The preliminary list of targeted candidates includes Democratic challengers running for eight GOP-held open seats and three special elections. Five of the eight candidates running for open seats are candidates who ran in 2006 and lost by fewer than 3 points. Second-timers include Dan Maffei, who lost to Rep. Jim Walsh in New York's 25th District, Mary Jo Kilroy, who narrowly lost Ohio's 15th District to Deborah Pryce, Linda Stender, in New Jersey's 7th District, Gary Trauner in Wyoming and Charlie Brown, who missed beating John Doolittle in California's 4th District. First-time challengers John Adler, in New Jersey's 3rd District, Ohio 16's John Boccieri and Debbie Halvorson in Illinois' 11th District are all state senators running in open seats.

Also listed are three seats with special elections that will take place this year, including seats being vacated by Republican Reps. Denny Hastert and Richard Baker and a seat left open after the death of Democratic Rep. Julia Carson. Carson's seat is the only Democratic seat listed, and her grandson, Indianapolis City-County Councilor Andre Carson will be the Democratic nominee in the March special election.

Notably absent from the first wave of Red-to-Blue candidates are those who face a competitive primary. One likely list member is Ann Kirkpatrick, a well-funded former state legislator who has received endorsements from EMILY's List and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, and whose top Republican competition dropped out three weeks ago. Kirkpatrick is running in the moderate and sprawling 1st District in Arizona, which is being vacated by the scandal-plagued Republican Rick Renzi.

Two other districts likely to make the Red-to-Blue list at some point this year are Minnesota's 3rd District, where Republican Jim Ramstad is retiring, and New Mexico's 1st District, where Republican Heather Wilson is leaving her seat to run for the Senate. President Bush won 51% in both districts in 2004.

The Red-to-Blue list will grow as the year goes on, and a Democratic candidate's inclusion, or exclusion, will indicate the amount of faith the DCCC has in that candidate's chances.

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

As we wrote this morning, Mitt Romney has dominated the Florida airwaves, broadcasting almost three times as many ads as John McCain has this month alone. And while it has been assumed, by this writer as much as any, that Romney will move forward with his campaign, and in reasonably strong position, regardless of his Florida finish, some signs suggest that the campaign is waiting with baited breath, hoping for a win before they make future plans.

Romney greets voters in Des Moines on New Years' Eve

But instead of getting a head start on his rivals, Romney remains dark in Super Tuesday states. Campaign spokesman Kevin Madden says the campaign is going according to plan, though. "It's our goal to be competitive in all these early states," he says. "You can make the case that you have a growing level of momentum" heading into February 5.

Still, the situation appears similar to the week between New Hampshire's primary and the Michigan contest, in which the campaign pulled ads from Florida and South Carolina to focus their attention on the Wolverine State. Conventional wisdom held that Romney was acting the businessman: Why continue to throw good money after bad, when he might not win the nomination?

After winning in Michigan, Romney put enough resources behind his Florida effort to put him in the position he finds himself today: Very near, if not at, the top. Still, without a larger investment, Romney remains an underdog in February 5 states. Romney lacks a national profile, and he would have to introduce himself to voters, unlike McCain, who can coast on his name recognition.

The absence of further ad spending, then, seems to suggest that Romney is awaiting the results of Florida to see whether it's worth it. And given that he's waiting, even as the race boils down to a nail-biter between Romney and McCain, one might conclude that a win in Florida is Romney's only option if he is going to continue.

Madden dismissed that idea. "I don't think any state's a must-win, since we've been very competitive in all these early states," he told Politics Nation. "A very competitive finish is good for us, whether it's a first or a close second." Asked whether Romney had put any additional money behind his candidacy, Madden demurred. "Our FEC reports are due on the 31st," he said.

Florida, unlike previous states, operates under a winner-take-all system. Romney's campaign -- including the candidate himself -- has been the most vocal proponent of the delegate battle theory, by which the primaries do not produce a clear winner and the battle progresses to a convention. Despite Romney's lead in the race for delegates, his campaign may have concluded that, should Florida's 57 delegates fall to McCain, the path to 1,191 representatives at the convention becomes implausible.

Given Romney's lack of spending, one might be led to believe that Florida is just as important to him as it is to Giuliani. Then again, it seems likely that Romney will continue, regardless of the outcome tonight. Madden hinted to Politics Nation that advertising in February 5 states is right around the corner. "We will make those decisions in the next day or so," he said.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Former Republican Rep. Anne Northup will file for her old seat today, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports, setting up a grudge match with Democrat John Yarmuth in Kentucky's 3rd District. Yarmuth defeated Northup 51%-48% in 2006 to take back the Louisville-Jefferson County based seat for Democrats.

Northup's first four elections were close, running against relatively well-funded candidates in a district that Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry all won in the last three presidential elections. In 2006, Northup's campaign faced challenges both political -- she fell victim to the national anti-incumbent mood that swept the country -- and the personal, when one of her six children unexpectedly passed away. After the death, she suspended her campaign for six weeks.

After her defeat, Northup mounted an ultimately unsuccessful bid for the Republican nomination for governor last year, losing 50%-37% to scandal-tainted Ernie Fletcher, the incumbent who was soundly beaten by the Democratic nominee in November. Before deciding to enter the race this year, Northup had been supporting Republican Erwin Roberts, who recently pulled out because of the likelihood his Army Reserve unit would be activated.

Those who follow Kentucky politics say Northup will be aided by Senator Mitch McConnell's run for re-election this year, especially if no Democrat emerges as a strong challenger. McConnell, who had nearly $7 million in the bank by the end of the 3rd quarter, will spend heavily, especially in Yarmuth's district. The two are close politically -- McConnell did not back incumbent Fletcher while Northup was challenging him -- and the seat returning to the Republican fold is good for GOP candidates running at all levels. McConnell, who hails from Louisville, would certainly like to be represented by a Republican in Congress as well.

In her latest financial disclosure with the FEC, Northup reported having less than $10,000 cash on hand. In 2006, she spent about $3.4 million to Yarmuth's $2.2 million. Through September of last year, Yarmuth had banked an impressive $610,000. He has no reason to worry about money anyway -- he donates his congressional paycheck to charity.

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Following Governor Matt Blunt's surprise decision to suspend his campaign for re-election, Missouri Republicans are scrambling to get to the head of the pack to replace him. Three major candidates have jumped in so far, all hoping to face likely Democratic nominee Jay Nixon. Still, with a relatively late primary, the crowded field of well-known candidates could only serve to bolster Nixon's chances in November.

The top Republicans have moved quickly to form their campaign teams and stake their claims to the nomination. In a four-minute video on his website, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder said he looked forward to tax cuts and tougher positions on illegal immigration. The first-term number two hails from Cape Girardeau, just south of St. Louis near the confluence of Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky.

State Treasurer Sarah Steelman's campaign hit Clay County yesterday, stressing education, health care affordability and the economy to what the Kansas City Star called about 20 people. Steelman had announced she would seek a second term as Treasurer early on January 22, but after Blunt made his announcement, later that day, she decided instead to seek the governorship. Steelman is a former State Senator from Rolla, a small town halfway between St. Louis and Springfield.

The two statewide elected officials are not alone in the race, though. Today, U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof, who represents the Columbia-based Ninth District in the northeast corner of the state, plans to announce his own bid for governor, the Star reports. Hulshof has been calling top donors telling them of his decision, and a formal announcement will come today, GOP sources said.

Two other Republicans, moderate Rep. Jo Ann Emerson and former Senator Jim Talent, who ran for governor in 2000, have each said they will not run.

Hulshof likely begins as the front-runner, and in 2006 he spent more than $1.3 million. That's considerably more than Steelman's 2004 campaign, when she raised just over $900,000, and Kinder's, when he took in around $740,000. Kinder starts his campaign with about $275,000 in the bank, outpaced by Steelman's $330,000. Hulshof, FEC records show, has $350,000 in his federal account, though it is unclear how much he can transfer to a statewide bid.

No matter which candidate emerges from the GOP primary, they will likely face an uphill battle against Nixon, Missouri's Attorney General. Nixon has been running, albeit against Blunt, for most of the past four years, and recent polls had shown Nixon leading the Republican incumbent. Through the end of the year, Nixon had raked in an incredible $1.75 milion for his campaign, finance reports show. While Republicans have several candidates to be proud of, Nixon's advantage still makes the seat a better opportunity for Democrats than it is for Republicans.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Good Tuesday morning. Hope you're not too tired: We're just one-quarter of the way through the busiest week in politics in recent memory. Here's what Washington is watching today:

-- The Senate continues debating amendments to the FISA bill today, a day after Republicans failed to end debate and Democrats failed to extend the program by 30 days. President Bush highlighted the program in last night's State of the Union, urging Congress to take action. House members take up the economic stimulus package today, which is expected to sail to passage with only token opposition from the far right and the far left.

-- The political world, though, is focused on Florida, which the Miami Herald modestly casts itself as "a barometer for the country." Over a million people have already voted in the state's closed primary, and the state's booming Hispanic, retired and conservative electorates will ultimately decide the direction of the race. Win two out of three of those constituencies and a candidate will take the GOP nomination.

-- In the Sunshine State, Republicans face yet another must-win state for one candidate. Iowa was Mike Huckabee's Waterloo, as was New Hampshire for John McCain, Michigan for Mitt Romney and South Carolina for Fred Thompson. Only Thompson has lost so far, though given polls, tonight might be the end for Rudy Giuliani, who has staked his claim on a state that doesn't seem to be breaking his way. The final RCP Florida Average has Giuliani trailing McCain and Romney by just under 15 points. Asked by reporters yesterday if a loss would end his campaign, Giuliani exhibited a rare moment of doubt: "Wednesday morning, we'll make a decision," he said, per AP's Libby Quaid.

-- McCain and Romney are locked in a pitched battle. not only for Florida but for first place in the race as a whole. In recent days, McCain has called Romney a flip-flopper and accused him of setting a time-table for withdrawal in Iraq. Romney has pushed back hard, calling McCain dishonest and accusing him of hidden liberal tendencies. The winner of that argument looks likely to win the nomination. The two candidates, both of whom have their problems with the Republican base, look like finalists for the job. Given Thompson and Huckabee, one of whom is out and another who looks on his way out, is it really the case that conservatives didn't have a candidate, or did they have a candidate and choose McCain and Romney in spite of that choice?

-- Given the fact that Romney has run almost ten times as many advertisements as McCain, should he be worried that he remains fractionally behind? Romney, as Ambinder writes, ran more ads in September than McCain has run to date, and McCain's lead can be seen in one of two lights: First, McCain, media darling and noted maverick, is ahead despite his lack of money through sheer force of will and the advantage of running eight years ago gives him an insurmountable head start. Second, Romney, unknown outside Massachusetts and Utah when this thing started, has come within an inch of overtaking a war hero with previous presidential race experience while far outpacing America's Mayor. Either way, both candidates look pretty good coming out of Florida.

-- While there's no love lost between McCain and Romney, there doesn't seem to be any affection between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as well. Even as Clinton shook Ted Kennedy's hand at last night's speech, Obama refused to offer his own hand, Frank James writes at The Swamp. It was the first time the two have seen the inside of the chamber in which they ostensibly work, during votes on FISA, and each had several opportunities to say hello to the other. As far as reporters know, neither took advantage of those chances.

-- Indicative of the keys to a Clinton win: She's bought time on Spanish-language radio networks. After her Nevada performance, and Obama's big win among African Americans in South Carolina, Clinton is depending on her enduring popularity among Hispanics for another win. But, perhaps indicative of how tenuous that strategy seems, according to Politico's Ben Smith: That Spanish-language radio buy is going into Clinton's home state of New York. The district to watch: That of Clinton backer Rep. Charlie Rangel, based in Harlem, which is 31% African American and 48% Hispanic.

-- Rankings Of The Day: Ted Kennedy's decision to back Obama at a mega-rally yesterday in Washington dominated cable news nets as much if not more than Bush's speech. That's because his was a Symbolic Endorsement, the highest level in the endorsement hierarchy,