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Young, Stevens In Trouble

DailyKos is out with another Research 2000 poll today, and the results are not good for Republicans in the great snowy north. R2K tested embattled Republican Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young alongside Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and former House Democratic leader Ethan Berkowitz. Berkowitz has already announced his campaign against Young, while Begich continues to mull a bid against Stevens.

The poll, conducted 12/3-6, surveyed 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. The sample reflects the heavily Republican tilt of the state: 33% of those responding were Republicans, compared with just 19% of Democrats. The remaining 48% called themselves independent or identified with another political party.

General Election Matchups
(All / Men / Wom / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Begich 47 / 43 / 51 / 81 / 7 / 55
Stevens 41 / 46 / 36 / 7 / 81 / 35

Berkowitz 49 / 46 / 52 / 83 / 18 / 57
Young 42 / 46 / 38 / 8 / 72 / 35

There's a reason Berkowitz and Begich are out-pacing Young and Stevens: Alaska voters simply don't see the two incumbents in a very favorable light:

Fav/Unfav
Begich 48 / 19
Berkowitz 45 / 18
Young 40 / 54
Stevens 39 / 58

The numbers are pretty incredible: Independents choose both challengers by wide margins, though the state's Republican Party still maintains an incredible size advantage. But there is no guarantee that Young or Stevens will make another bid, or even be the GOP nominee come next year. Facing scandals, Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski looked to present Democrats with a great pick-up opportunity in 2006. That is, until Alaska Republicans did not renominate him, instead choosing Sarah Palin in his place.

Palin went on to win the general election over former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles, who until Murkowski got routed was the favorite to win the seat. If Republicans choose other candidates over Stevens and Young, they are likely to be rewarded. Barring a new candidate, Democrats have the best chance they've seen in Alaska for more than a generation.