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By Reid Wilson

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Where's The Confidence?

He's raised more than $16 million this quarter alone. He has set himself up as a hero of the growing libertarian movement around the country. He is acting more like a front-runner every day. But Congressman Ron Paul is still, at heart, a pragmatist. Roll Call's David Drucker reports today that, regardless of how he does in the presidential sweepstakes, Paul will file for re-election to his House seat.

Meanwhile, Paul campaign chief Lew Moore tells Politics Nation that the impressive fundraising performance the campaign turned in earlier this week will allow them to focus on building staff. The campaign has "a very full-blown canvassing program" run out of offices in Des Moines and Concord, New Hampshire, Moore said, and Paul advertisements will go up in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and other early states.

Paul's libertarian message is playing better in some parts of the country than in others, something the campaign recognizes. "Our greatest amount of focus has been on New Hampshire," Moore said, though "we're going into all the early states," including forays into Florida and Michigan.

Paul's appeal comes, Moore speculated, from Republican losses in 2006. "It's in many ways pent up demand. Our party has campaigned election after election on smaller government, and there is no smaller government," he said. "The Republican Party is shrinking."

Unlike Paul's, the GOP's "finances are in serious trouble in several areas." Paul, who Moore contends helps the GOP attract new voters, is doing more good than harm. "The Republican Party needs to be about expanding the base, not restricting it."

Part of acting like a front-runner, in modern politics, is attacking opponents. Paul's campaign recently paid for two Arkansas legislators to head to Iowa and make the case against Mike Huckabee. Still, no campaign wants to be seen as going negative, and the Paulites are no different. "It isn't so much a matter that we're going after Mr. Huckabee. I think a lot of our folks in Iowa are frustrated that the people that we're talking to are not aware of his record," Moore said. "People in Iowa should have the opportunity to know about it."

Paul remains an unlikely candidate to win the GOP nomination. But as his campaign begins to act more like a front-runner, they would do well to develop the confidence that other front-runners have. John McCain, for one, would never say he will plan to run for re-election, making clear his own assumption that he will win the nomination.

For now, Moore will not speculate on his campaign's chances anywhere. "I have no idea where we'll actually finish," he said.