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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Competitive In Colorado? | Blog Home Page | The First Blog »

Three Dems To Watch

Three new polls in three very different states out today show not everything is rosy for Democrats. It's been a difficult year for three elected officials, which could lead to opportunities for Republicans down the road.

In Nevada, a lesson is rapidly emerging: It does not pay to be Senate Democratic leader. A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted 12/3-5 for the Las Vegas Review Journal, shows just 41% of the 625 registered voters think Sen. Harry Reid is doing an excellent or good job, while 58% say his job performance is fair or poor. That's about the same as unpopular Governor Jim Gibbons, a Republican, who clocked in at a 41% to 54% margin.

Is it bad to be a Republican leader? Or is it just better to be a few steps down the leadership chain? John Ensign probably doesn't care, as long as the NRSC chief remains popular in the Silver State. He enjoys a 57% excellent or good rating, while 40% rate him as fair or poor.

In New York, a Quinnipiac University poll taken just before Eliot Spitzer's one-year anniversary as governor demonstrates his difficult year. Only 37% of the 1,083 respondents in the poll, taken 12/4-10, approved of the way Spitzer is doing his job, while 48% disapprove. Independents are slightly less favorably disposed to Spitzer, by a 35%-49% margin. 21% say things have gotten worse while Spitzer has been governor, while just 7% say things are getting better.

By contrast, the state's two Senators, Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer, are very popular. Even though she's on the presidential campaign trail, 64% approve of Clinton's job performance, while 59% like the job Schumer is doing. 29% disapprove of Clinton, while 22% disapprove of Schumer.

In neighboring New Jersey, the news isn't much better. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,085 registered voters there, between 12/5-9, and found that Governor Jon Corzine has just a 46% to 43% approval rating, while only 38% are satisfied with the situation in New Jersey. 62% say they are dissatisfied.

Corzine leads a generic Republican by a 41% to 31% margin, though just 44% say he deserves re-election and 43% say he does not. Senator Frank Lautenberg, whose seat comes up for re-election next year, has a 42% job approval rating, with 33% disapprove. Before Republicans get too excited, though, they should look at recent history. Lautenberg has never been the most popular senator, and neither have his seatmates, including Corzine, Sen. Bob Menendez and former Sen. Robert Torricelli.

Still, every time Republicans target one of the seats, sinking millions into ultra-expensive Philadelphia and New York City media markets, they come up short. After State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. lost to Menendez last year, Republicans might be shy about going after Lautenberg too aggressively next year.