RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

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Romney Gamble Pays Off

Two weeks ago, Mitt Romney strode to a podium in College Station, Texas, and delivered a speech fraught with peril. The Mormon candidate, sick and tired of answering questions about his religion, was going to address faith in the public square and get it off his chest once and for all. Romney's Mormonism has been seen as an albatross around his neck, and with flagging poll numbers, a speech actually addressing the issue head-on was seen as a huge gamble that could make, or would break, his campaign.

Two weeks later, polls show Romney has reversed his slide, and while he isn't at the top of the GOP pack again, he's on his way up. The governor has seen recent upticks in the RCP National Average, the RCP Iowa Average and the RCP South Carolina Average, and while many were ready to watch Romney's huge advantage in New Hampshire slip in favor of a John McCain surge, the latest RCP New Hampshire Average shows his slide has plateaued.

The Texas A&M speech helped Romney in two ways: First, it reassured many in evangelical Christian circles that Romney would not take governing cues from the Mormon Church. The speech won plaudits from top evangelical leaders like Michael Gerson, Chuck Hurley and others. Polls, too, show Romney gaining among evangelicals. A recent Reuters/Zogby poll showed 14% of born again voters backed Romney, up from 4% and slightly more than the 7-point bounce Romney earned among all voters. (Mike Huckabee gained big among evangelicals too, up 14 points, while Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson each lost 15 points among the group)

Second, it significantly raised his national profile. Coupled with Rudy Giuliani's stunning decline -- he fell 13 points from the last NBC/WSJ poll, in early November -- Romney is now tied for first place. The poll also shows slight upticks in Romney's positive ratings, from the last survey in November, and fewer respondents rating him negatively.

Many argued that Romney's campaign was inept and amateur, and was taking a huge risk by giving the Mormon speech so late in the game. But these guys know what they're doing. One of the under-reported stories of this campaign cycle is the depth of talent Romney recruited.

A look at his campaign organization reveals a veritable who's-who of Washington Republican politics: Carl Forti, former NRCC communications director; Sally Canfield, former top policy adviser to Dennis Hastert; Matt Rhoades, former research director at the RNC; Kevin Madden, former spokesman for John Boehner; Tony Feather, political director for the Bush/Cheney 2000 campaign. This is not an amateur team by any stretch of the imagination.

The campaign has worked hard to bring together a coalition of groups, from old Washington hands like ex-Rep. Vin Weber and ex-Sen. Jim Talent to conservatives like James Bopp, Paul Weyrich and Robert Bork, to business leaders like eBay CEO Meg Whitman and national security experts like former CIA Operations chief Cofer Black and House Intelligence Committee co-chair Pete Hoekstra.

Still, despite spending millions to lay the groundwork in early states, a healthy lead in polls through much of the year and an almost limitless bank account, thanks to his personal fortunes, Romney remained well behind front-runners in national polls. He needed, it seemed, a breakout moment. That moment came a month before the Iowa caucuses, in a speech many thought was a huge risk.

Poll numbers show that risk has paid off. Whether or not Romney wins the nomination, he stopped his slide and successfully vaulted himself back into contention.