A new poll out of the Gem State shows that, despite the travails of outgoing Sen. Larry Craig, Republicans have a strong chance to retain the state's open Senate seat next year. The poll, conducted by Myers Research and Strategic Services, tested Lieutenant Gov. Jim Risch, a Republican, against former Rep. Larry LaRocco.

The poll was conducted for Democratic State House Leader Nicole LeFavour last month, between 11/13-19, as she pondered a bid herself, and surveyed 600 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

General Election Matchup
Risch 48
LaRocco 34

Generic Senate Matchup
Democrat 42
Republican 36

A generic Democrat leading a generic Republican in a Senate race? Seems impossible, doesn't it, especially as Risch leads LaRocco by a wide margin? Not necessarily. The GOP brand is wounded, even in Idaho: President Bush earns just a 33% excellent/good job approval rating, lower even than Craig's 37% mark.

So how is Risch ahead? The simple answer is that he is one of the state's most popular public officials. When Gov. Dirk Kempthorne was elevated to become Bush's Interior Secretary, Risch served temporarily as his replacement, though he decided to avoid a GOP primary and ceded the nomination to Gov. Butch Otter, choosing instead to run for re-election.

Risch is the overwhelming favorite to retain the seat for Republicans, thanks to the good will he built during his temporary stint as governor. LaRocco is probably the best-known Democrat the party could have found to run for the seat, though if history is any indication, he has to find a new way to run a race: He lost to Risch in the race for Lieutenant Governor in 2006 by a wide 58%-39% margin.