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By Reid Wilson

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Morning Thoughts: Vilmain Event

Good Wednesday morning. Congress is so close to finishing their work for the year, we're not surprised at the number of members we saw streaming down Pennsylvania Avenue last night, all of them looking exhausted. Meanwhile, here's what Washington is watching:

-- They're not done yet, though. The House today will vote on the Senate's version of the omnibus spending measure, which includes $70 billion in funding for the war in Iraq that the original version did not include. That gives Democrats the chance to vote against war funding and appease the base, while the funding measure will pass on the backs of Republican votes. Later, the House takes up the alternative minimum tax and a bill on consumer safety. The Senate has morning business, but no votes are scheduled. President Bush signs the energy bill this morning that increases fuel efficiency standards 40% by 2020.

-- A story that will have every Democrat talking today: The New York Times reports that the White House engaged in discussions with the CIA over whether to destroy controversial video tapes showing harsh interrogations of high-value al Qaeda detainees. The White House lawyers involved included Harriet Miers, Alberto Gonzales and top Dick Cheney aide David Addington, as well as John Bellinger, then the senior lawyer for the National Security Council. There is disagreement between former officials over who favored destroying the tapes, though the simple fact of the White House's involvement in the matter is likely to incite outrage both on Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

-- We've never bought into the cult of the consultant, whereby one political strategist is able to manipulate the hundreds of voting groups around the country to such an extent that he or she changes the outcome of a presidential race on his or her own. See Karl Rove and his permanent majority. But in Iowa, organizing matters, and the best organizers have cult followings of their own. Teresa Vilmain, Hillary Clinton's Iowa state director, is one of those top-notch organizers, and she gets another glowing write-up today in the Wall Street Journal. The real take-away of the story: Whoever has built the superior organization -- Vilmain, Obama state director Paul Tewes or Edwards state director Jennifer O'Malley Dillon -- will walk away on caucus night with a win. (One measure of Vilmain's stature: Top Clinton turnout guru Michael Whouley has been brought in to reshape the campaign's New Hampshire field organization. He has not been asked to go to Iowa.)

-- Sometimes a win, though, means second place. Not second place in Iowa, but second place in a voter's heart. And as the Chicago Tribune writes today, second place is still up in the air. Supporters of Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and others who might not meet the 15% threshold necessary to win delegates will have to go somewhere, and campaigns are focusing on rounding them up after the first period of voting. That, the Tribune suggests, is why Barack Obama and John Edwards are beginning to engage each other. Both are competing for second-place votes as well as rural votes, two keys to an Iowa win.

-- In New Hampshire, campaigns are wrestling with a big dilemma: In a small state, the influx of a few thousand new residents can dramatically alter the playing field. A new report out from the University of New Hampshire suggests about a quarter of Granite State voters eligible to vote now were not on voter rolls in 2000. New residents, demographer Kenneth Johnson suggests, are more likely to have higher incomes, which could benefit Obama on the Democratic side. But the real story is the lack of real independent voters. Most call themselves independent, but are, at the end of the day, actually drawn to one party. John McCain, banking on independent votes to get him through the GOP primary, has to hope that there are enough independents who lean GOP to push him over the top.

-- Mitt Romney is determined not to let McCain get traction in the Granite State. Perhaps more importantly, Romney is determined to reverse his slide and Mike Huckabee's rise in Iowa. The Bay Stater has the money to outspend Huckabee, which he is managing easily (1,000 points in the top four Iowa markets, and $1.7 million worth of television time this week in five early states, according to Jonathan Martin). Huckabee has about half Romney's ad buy in Iowa. But in New Hampshire, Romney is spending $674,000 to McCain's $545,000, not an overwhelming difference.

-- Here's an interesting comparison: Is Mike Huckabee the 2008 version of Harriett Miers? Marc Ambinder thinks so, and he has a compelling case. The same groups that joined up to oppose Miers' Supreme Court nomination are now taking it to Huckabee, including Rush Limbaugh and several bigger-name right-leaning blogs. Conservative intellectuals are against him more than they are for him, and eventually that could spell danger for the governor. From immigration to Miers to spending, this coalition has proven a vaunted foe of Republicans who don't fall in line, up to and including President Bush.

-- Those who set primary dates should be getting a clear message lately: Never, ever set primaries so close to Christmas. Whether it's Mike Huckabee's ad featuring a floating cross or Rudy Giuliani with Santa, these advertisements are just getting ridiculous. The candidate who ends up winning will probably be the one who doesn't put up an ad on the holiday.

-- Democrats hoping for big Senate gains next year have been frustrated in Oregon, where Washington insiders have settled on House Speaker Jeff Merkley as the best candidate to take on Republican Senator Gordon Smith. The two-term Republican could be vulnerable, but several top candidates refused to run and Smith has not stumbled sufficiently to attract vultures. Until, perhaps, Monday. As Mississippi Senator Trent Lott prepares to retire, Smith, eulogizing his career, said Lott's 2002 comments at Strom Thurmond's birthday party were "misconstrued." Lott said that had the country elected Thurmond, who ran as a state's rights segregationist, "we wouldn't have had all these problems over all these years." The Oregon Democratic Party and the DSCC pounced, and if they can make hay of Smith's comments in socially liberal Oregon, they might cut into what is looking increasingly like a safe Republican seat.

-- ManBearPig Sighting Of The Day: Al Gore, you just won the Nobel Peace Prize. What are you going to do now? I'm fundraising for the DCCC! The former Vice President lent his name to a pitch from Congressional Democrats, Politico reports, as part of the committee's Year-End Challenge. Democrats' GOP counterparts are finally out of debt, but the DCCC maintains a huge cash-on-hand advantage over the NRCC.

-- Today On The Trail: John Edwards has two more town halls with Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne, in Portsmouth and Manchester, New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton stops in Independence, Elkader, Clarion and Des Moines. Bill Richardson holds town halls in Hudson, Pembroke, Portsmouth and Dover, New Hampshire, while Barack Obama meets voters in Concord, Manchester and Nashua. Chris Dodd is in Ames, Marengo, Iowa City and Cedar Rapids and Joe Biden is in Council Bluffs, Fort Dodge, Carroll, Denison and Sioux City.

-- On the GOP side, Mitt Romney has a media availability in Davenport and a Christmas party in West Des Moines. Fred Thompson's bus tour continues, with stops in Cedar Rapids, Tipton, Muscatine and Davenport. Mike Huckabee is in West Des Moines and Ames, while Ron Paul makes the obligatory stop at the Politics and Eggs breakfast in Bedford. Rudy Giuliani is staying out of the early states, giving a press conference in Kansas City and a speech in Columbia, Missouri.