Morning Thoughts: Outside Influences
MANCHESTER, NH -- Sure, Iowa goes first. But with John McCain, Mitt Romney, Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama in the Granite State today, don't let anyone tell you it's unimportant. The candidates sure don't think so. Politics Nation's trip just about ended early last night when we cheered a little too loudly against the Patriots. Not smart up here. For those who are smart, though, here's what to look out for today:
-- The House returns from Thanksgiving break to begin consideration of bills dealing with dam safety, timber imports and prevention of human trafficking. The Senate today takes up a free trade agreement with Peru, with a final passage vote scheduled for this afternoon. President Bush attends an RNC fundraiser with the First Lady in Washington, while Vice President Cheney fundraises for Texas Rep. Ralph Hall, who, we feel compelled to remind the veep's staff, was a Democrat until just a few years ago. Defense Secretary Gates is headed to Afghanistan to meet with President Hamid Karzai, while Attorney General Michael Mukasey and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson get into the holiday spirit: Mukasey lights the National Chanukah Menorah on the Ellipse tonight and Paulson's department has their annual holiday party, with the boss scheduled to attend.
-- Two big stories outside the political sphere that will play heavily in both primaries broke yesterday: On the Democratic side, how quickly will Barack Obama and John Edwards point to news reports that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 in an effort to rekindle the debate over Hillary Clinton's judgment on the topic? We're guessing as early as today, when candidates meet for a radio debate in Des Moines. The National Intelligence Estimate is good news for anyone who voted against a resolution naming a part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization; that would be every Senate Democrat running for president except Clinton. In Washington, does this mean President Bush is even more of a lame duck than he was before yesterday? The announcement has changed the debate on Iran more than any single intelligence report has ever changed a debate, the New York Times assesses.
-- Republican debates have focused excessively, in the minds of some, on immigration, and after yesterday, that focus is unlikely to wane. Phoenix Mayor Bart Gordon, a Democrat many believe is headed on to higher offices eventually, announced yesterday his administration would withdraw backing from a police order that prevents officers from asking about the citizenship and residency status of anyone they arrest, the Arizona Republic reports. The New York Times gives a national spin. The federal government failed to uphold its end of the bargain, forcing the city to act, a spokesman said. The move comes two months after a police officer was killed by an illegal immigrant. Look for Gordon, the Democrat, to win praise from Republicans as they take after each other on immigration issues.
-- We told you yesterday that Congressional Democrats' campaign arm is spending close to $150,000 on a television ad hitting Ohio-05 candidate Bob Latta in the race to replace the late Rep. Paul Gillmor. Republicans, who paid for a poll in the district last week, went into full panic mode either after they got the results of the poll or in anticipation of more DCCC spending: Yesterday the NRCC dropped a whopping $234,000 on television ads hitting Democrat Robin Weirauch, along with $33,000 in targeted direct mail, FEC reports show. And the bad news could keep coming: Republicans commissioned a new survey in Virginia-01, where Republican State Delegate Rob Wittman faces teacher and Iraq war veteran Phil Forgit. Both special elections will be held a week from today. For more on the Ohio race, check back with Politics Nation later today.
-- In the presidential contest, much of the focus this week will center on what Mitt Romney has to say about Mormonism at a speech this week at Texas A&M University in College Station. But Romney's warning that he's not going to talk about his own faith much, focusing rather on the role of faith in America. "There's plenty of ways that people can learn more about my faith if they'd like to, I'm sure -- a lot of websites people can go to," Romney told the LA Times. Romney's written the speech himself, campaign aides tell Top Of The Ticket, and many believe the speech will be one of the most powerful moments of the campaign so far. Sliding in some polls, Romney needs a big splash to get back on top. Thursday's event is starting to feel like a make-or-break moment.
-- Well-known evangelicals have weighed in on behalf of virtually every candidate except Mike Huckabee, and they seemed to do it right as he was on the way up. The tax crowd has made their feelings about Huckabee known. But what about another vital GOP constituency, the Second Amendment crowd? Consider that Romney's record on guns is thin and Rudy Giuliani's is downright terrible, in the minds of the National Rifle Association. Fred Thompson and John McCain have solid records, but Huckabee's is top-notch. NRA Public Affairs Director Andrew Arulanandam tells OnCall that a pre-primary endorsement is not out of the question, though it's "definitely out of the ordinary as far as what we usually do." NRA officials have met with every GOP candidate except Paul, and anyone who wins their backing can expect a big boost in a Republican primary, especially in New Hampshire, the Live Free or Die state.
-- John McCain had a little fun in Hooksett, New Hampshire last night, joining a crowd of college students to become the first Republican presidential hopeful to attend a joint MTV/MySpace forum, broadcast both on cable and the web. McCain, the oldest Republican aside from Ron Paul and the one most closely associated with the war in Iraq, won wild applause with calls for action on global warming, Social Security, genocide in Darfur and other issues younger voters are likely to find appealing. As young voters move away from the GOP, could some old guy like McCain actually bring them back? And, while it's completely anecdotal, none of the students we talked with afterwards were concerned enough with his Iraq position that they wouldn't vote for him. Every one was an opponent of the war, yet McCain's support is less important to them than other issues.
-- In the Senate, what once looked like a great three-way race to be Republican Conference chairman in the wake of Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott's resignation could get a little less interesting today as Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison may drop her bid, Roll Call reports. That move would leave Tennessean Lamar Alexander and North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr vying for the position. It would also mean Hutchison would keep her post as head of the GOP Policy Committee, shutting off the possibility for others, including Texas colleague John Cornyn, to move up the leadership ladder.
-- Scalper's Opportunity Of The Day: Oprah's popular. Perhaps Politics Nation underestimated her appeal. But she's huge, apparently, in both South Carolina and New Hampshire, CNN reports, where rallies with Obama are now filled to capacity, the campaign says. That's astonishing in South Carolina's case -- 18,000 people can fit in the Colonial Center in Columbia, and if they do, Oprah will be a bigger draw than the University of South Carolina's basketball team.
-- Today On The Trail: Politics Nation will be with John McCain at stops in Milford and Hooksett; in between, he stops in Peterborough and Keene to meet voters. We'll also join Mitt Romney in Concord and Meredith after he makes stops in Windham and Raymond, New Hampshire. Fred Thompson is in Spartanburg and Greer, South Carolina, while Mike Huckabee joins Don Imus on the air, then meets voters in Des Moines.
-- On the Democratic side, candidates will meet for a radio debate on Iowa Public Radio at the State Historical Society in Des Moines. Listen live, from 2-4 pm Eastern, here. Other than the debate, John Edwards has a town hall at Iowa State University, Barack Obama rallies at Grinnell College and the University of Iowa and Chris Dodd holds a town hall at Briar Cliff University in Sioux City. Bill Richardson will join Huckabee on Imus, then attends a funeral in Independence and holds a meeting with voters in Waterloo.


