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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« More Ex-Edwards Aides Helping 527s | Blog Home Page | Richardson Again Calls For Resignation »

Morning Thoughts: On Hold

WEST DES MOINES -- It's Friday morning, the end of what seems like a very short week. No one's left in Washington, so here's what Iowans and Granite Staters are watching as the presidential primaries draw to a close:

-- Today On The Trail: Hillary Clinton makes stops in Story City, Webster City and Mason City, while John Edwards is in Independence, Dubuque, Clinton, Tipton and Davenport. Barack Obama's bus tour takes him to Williamsburg, Coralville, Clinton, Davenport and Muscatine. Joe Biden is in Adel and Decorah, followed by stops in Cresco, Waverly and Waterloo. Chris Dodd holds events in Des Moines, Clive and Council Bluffs. And Bill Richardson gives a speech in Des Moines (more on that below) followed by "Final Presidential Job Interviews" in Decorah, Elkader, Anamosa and Tipton.

-- On the Republican side, Fred Thompson campaigns in Pella, Oskaloosa, Ottumwa, Fairfield and Fort Madison, while Mitt Romney's bus tour takes him to Rock Rapids, Sioux Center, Le Mars, Sergeant Bluff, Missouri Valley and Council Bluffs. Mike Huckabee is in Pella and Ottumwa. John McCain finishes his Iowa swing with a stop in West Burlington, followed by multiple events in Manchester, New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani finishes up a multi-day swing through Florida with a stop in Orlando, followed by an event in Fort Dodge, Iowa. Ron Paul has a day of closed-press media interviews in Manchester.

-- The assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto rocked the presidential campaign yesterday, as every candidate not only expressed condolences but used her death as an opportunity to assert their own foreign policy experience. By the end of the day, the jockeying had led to several tiffs between campaigns on both sides of the aisle, even before Bhutto was laid to rest this morning.

-- In perhaps the most startling discussion of the assassination, top Obama strategist David Axelrod seemed to suggest that the war in Iraq, and by extension Hillary Clinton, could be responsible for the tragedy: "One of the reasons that Pakistan is in the distress that it's in is because al-Qaeda is resurgent, has become more powerful within that country and that's a consequence of us taking the eye off the ball and making the wrong judgment in going into Iraq. That's a serious difference between these candidates and I'm sure that people will take that into consideration," Axelrod told reporters in Des Moines yesterday. A top Clinton spokesman responded, accusing Axelrod of politicizing the tragedy with "baseless allegations." Axelrod backed off the comments later, telling CNN that he meant that American actions in Iraq have had direct impacts on Afghanistan and Pakistan. Not to be left out, Edwards actually spoke to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, First Read and Radio Iowa report.

-- Second-tier Democrats got into the scrum as well, starting with Bill Richardson's call for Pervez Musharraf's resignation. That prompted harsh responses from Joe Biden, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Chris Dodd, the number two Democrat on the panel, both of whom called Richardson's assertion irresponsible. Richardson fired back, arguing that U.S. support for Musharraf has been misguided. Richardson will give a speech on Pakistan this morning in Des Moines. He told CNN this morning that Pakistan's scheduled January 8 elections should be postponed until former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif decides to get involved.

The question of the moment, however, is this: If the Democratic race is a three-way contest in Iowa, and if Clinton is the "experienced" candidate, as her campaign has argued all year, doesn't she become the default choice in any crisis situation? We'll see.

-- Republicans spent the day responding to the attack, rather than each other, which left them open to a few minor flubs on foreign policy. Mike Huckabee, whose reputation for policy gaffes is growing by the day, said the incident should raise questions about whether to continue martial law in Pakistan (martial law was ended two weeks ago, which Ambinder says is evidence of a lack of brilliance on the policy front). Meanwhile, Romney chastised "those who think Iraq is the sole front in the War on Terror," per a statement. Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes wonders just who thinks there is but one front, calling the statement Romney's "Mike Huckabee moment." Meanwhile, John McCain responded to the news by arguing that he is most ready to handle the crisis, citing the fact he has been to Waziristan, the lawless tribal area on the Afghanistan border.

-- In more domestic affairs, a look at the schedule tells the whole tale: Every major Democratic candidate is in Iowa, as are most Republicans, all intent on making their closing arguments. What's the best way to make a closing argument to a large audience? Bus tours are good, but Hillary Clinton is going to offer a two-minute advertisement on every 6 o'clock news broadcast in Iowa the day before the caucuses, the campaign says. Don't be surprised if another campaign(s) does something similar.

-- If other campaigns follow Clinton's lead, it will only add to the media saturation Iowans face these days. The New York Times' Patrick Healy looks at some of the latest ad campaigns -- Romney has a new blitz on the way, Giuliani is preparing a September 11th-themed commercial, and Edwards just launched two new spots. Obama has spent the most, at $8.3 million, followed by Clinton at $6.3 million and Edwards at $2.7 million, according to a CMAG analysis. That's good for an astounding 44,600 individual advertisements. From experience, Politics Nation can report that no show goes by without an advertisement, including The Simpsons.

-- Romney leads the GOP field with $6.5 million spent on more than 8,000 individual runs, and the former governor leads by a mile. Thompson and Huckabee come in second and third, having spent just over $1 million each. The bottom line: Democrats will spend about $140 per caucus-goer on advertisements while the GOP drops nearly $100 per voter. That's comparable with the amount of money New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg and New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine spent on their respective bids for office.

-- While Democrats are making their final pitches, Republicans, the schedule shows, aren't ready to go that far yet. John McCain is spending a few days in New Hampshire, while Rudy Giuliani is only now making his post-Christmas appearance in Iowa (and his first in more than a week). Usually, one expects a candidate to exude confidence in the outcome of a race, but Republicans know their race is just too fluid. "I'm not ready to predict the outcome," Mitt Romney told the Washington Post yesterday in Manchester, where he said goodbye to close supporters before heading to Iowa for the remainder.

-- Third Party Of The Day: If Huckabee wins the Republican nomination, bet that more candidates will take a harder look at people backing the so-called FairTax in the future. The group, which favors a national sales tax to income taxes, had a big presence at the Iowa straw poll in Ames this August, helping Huckabee to a surprise second-place showing, and their supporters fueled Huckabee's similarly surprising rise in polls this month. Will the system -- a 23% sales tax and monthly reimbursement checks for poorer families -- work? The Washington Post takes a look. One thing's for sure: The movement has real backers, and they're providing some serious Huckmentum.