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Morning Thoughts: No Sleep 'Til...

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WEST DES MOINES -- Caucus day is Thursday. Until then, no rest for the weary or the wicked. Here's what Iowans are waking up to this morning:

-- Today On The Trail: Rudy Giuliani holds events in Clive, Indianola and Mount Pleasant, while Mitt Romney stops in Newton, Pella, Oskaloosa, Ottumwa and Burlington. Mike Huckabee visits Indianola and Perry, while Fred Thompson starts in Burlington, then hits Washington, Williamsburg, Montezuma and Newton. John McCain is staying in New Hampshire for now, with events in Merrimack, Bedford and Londonderry

-- On the Democratic side, John Edwards leads roundtables discussion in Muscatine, Washington and Knoxville before rallying with wife Elizabeth in Des Moines. Hillary Clinton is in Eldridge, Clinton, Maquoketa, Dubuque and Manchester, Iowa. Barack Obama hits Fort Madison, Keokuk, Mount Pleasant and Ottumwa, while Bill Richardson delivers another foreign policy speech in Iowa.

-- The Republican race has, for the moment, boiled down to three candidates and two story lines. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are feuding bitterly in Iowa, while John McCain and Mitt Romney are fighting like children in New Hampshire. Romney is attacking both candidates, though for very different reasons: In Iowa, Romney trails, and his team thinks Huckabee has peaked, write Dan Balz and Michael Shear. In New Hampshire, Romney leads, though he's seeing that lead slip as McCain's momentum continues.

-- Both Huckabee and McCain aren't taking things lying down; McCain leaked an anti-Romney spot yesterday before releasing a real one to New Hampshire television stations, while Huckabee is considering another round of push-back in Iowa. Questions all around: Does Huckabee have the money to go toe-to-toe with Romney? Can McCain continue his upward climb? And can Romney survive fighting wars on two fronts?

-- Another question the feudin' and the fussin' brings up: What happened to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson? The two, who sat together atop national polls for months, are being virtually ignored. Thompson's bus tour, which no one can call lazy, is keeping the candidate out of the fray, which may be a good thing if at least a few Iowans decide they don't like the Huckabee-Romney fight. Giuliani, who never made a serious effort in Iowa, is making just a day and a half swing through the state before bolting for New Hampshire. Questions for both candidates: Can Thompson become the nice guy to choose over the bullies? Can Giuliani survive without oxygen until Michigan or Florida, where he might again be in the top two?

-- Another fascinating subplot: With Romney and Huckabee so far ahead of the rest of the field -- the latest RCP Iowa Average has a 15.3 point gap between second-place Romney and third-place Thompson -- the real fight is for third place. Thompson barely leads McCain for the show position, with Giuliani a little farther out. The implications for both men are great: Thompson has said he needs to finish third in Iowa, and McCain's prospects of winning New Hampshire could receive a substantial boost if he posts a better than expected third in Iowa.

-- For Democrats, the race seems to boil down to three candidates -- no surprise there -- but if anyone says they know who will finish first, second and third in Iowa, they're probably pulling your leg. One certainty: Obama and Edwards do not like Clinton, and the two are getting more irritated that the other one is in the race. This week, Obama spent serious time taking shots at Edwards for his perceived relationships with independent 527 groups, while Edwards called an Obama adviser's comments on the death of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto "ridiculous" and said his rival was in "never-never land," in an interview with ABC's Jake Tapper.

-- Obama strategist David Axelrod's comments, which seemed to link Clinton to Bhutto's death, was a slip-up that had to be walked back. Yesterday, the candidate himself goofed. "It's that experience, that understanding, not just of what world leaders I went and talked to in the ambassador's house I had tea with, but understanding the lives of the people like my grandmother who lives in a tiny hut in Africa," Obama said in Coralville, the New York Times reports. Some thought the comment was sexist, though Clinton surrogate Madeleine Albright didn't play that card: "Senator Clinton has been in refugee camps, clinics, orphanages, and villages all around the world, including places where tea is not the usual drink," she said.

-- Obama's response to the kerfluffle: "They must really be on edge." That statement can, and should, apply to every campaign here over the next few days. Everyone has tons to gain, or lose, in Iowa. For Edwards, a win breathes needed life into his campaign, while a loss spells the beginning of the end of his road. For Obama, a win probably gives him a victory in New Hampshire, and the snowball begins there, while a loss could cost him the Granite State. For Clinton, a win earns a big bounce, as many thought they saw the state slip away from her earlier this month, while a loss costs her the invincible aura she once enjoyed. Everyone, understandably, should be on edge.

-- To get the win, Edwards has to convince people that he is the real change candidate by proving Obama unready to carry the mantle. Obama has to fend off Edwards while standing tall as the Anybody-But-Clinton candidate. And Clinton, while she has more time in which to do so, has to blow out someone, somewhere, and show that she's inevitable once again.

-- Buried Story Of The Day: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will announce the state's new Senator on Monday, the Mississippi Press reports, filling a vacancy left by Trent Lott, who retired earlier this month. One candidate who will definitely not get the job: Outgoing Rep. Chip Pickering, who said yesterday he asked Barbour to remove his name from consideration. The announcements, the Jackson Clarion-Ledger reports, will be held in Jackson and Gulfport. Rep. Roger Wicker leads the speculation game, but other candidates have buzz as well, including Treasurer Tate Reeves.

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