RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

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Morning Thoughts: Eight-Way Tie

Good Tuesday morning.

-- The Senate begins considering the omnibus funding bill today, while the House takes another look at the energy bill, which the Senate has amended. The House later takes up terrorism insurance. President Bush visits the new Capitol Visitor Center, apparently hoping to get a look before construction is delayed again. The Federal Communications Commission, meanwhile, will take up a proposal today to allow television and radio stations to partner with newspapers in the country's largest media markets, despite a request from some Congressional leaders to postpone the hearing.

-- John McCain is hoping for a big boost among independents who can choose a Democratic or Republican ballot in New Hampshire's January 8 primary. But, the Washington Post suggests, that population of truly independent voters -- for whom McCain is not battling fellow Republicans, but Democrat Barack Obama -- may be shrinking. 44% of Granite State voters are independents, but by some estimates, just a third of those are really willing to pick either party's ballot. "The bottom line is that they either lean Republican or lean Democratic," says ex-NH GOP chair and McCain adviser Steve Duprey. Contrary to recent reports, many independents still seem committed to choosing a Democratic ballot. Between 55% and 70% say they will take a Democratic line, surveys from the University of New Hampshire show.

-- As we wrote yesterday, there is no such thing as the Democratic three-way tie for first in Iowa. Nationally, John Edwards is even farther back. And while he has focused on a positive message lately as Obama and Hillary Clinton pivot toward attacking each other, he still needs to not only get close to Clinton, but leap-frog Obama's poll numbers to do so. Obama, in Iowa, said it was he who had done the most to rid Washington of special interests, while Edwards, in Des Moines, said he and Obama have "philosophical differences" on the issue -- he noted he has not taken money from lobbyists or PACs, the New York Times reported. A friendly disagreement, to be sure, but a disagreement between two candidates who have thus far focused all of their fire on Clinton.

-- On the GOP side, Mitt Romney's poll numbers are sinking in Iowa, but like Edwards (see link above), he may have a hidden reservoir of support in Iowa. Edwards has his veteran caucus attendees, while Romney has Mormons. There are more than 22,000 Mormons in Iowa, the Wall Street Journal reports, and one top Church leader in the state says he expects up to 7,000 Mormons to caucus. Most, many expect, will caucus for Romney. And as many believe the caucus attendance on the Republican side will be well below Democratic turnout, those few thousand votes could make all the difference as Romney struggles to catch up to Mike Huckabee, an evangelical Christian. How big is the evangelical vote in Iowa? Oh, about 500,000. Analyst Soren Dayton concludes that, in order to account for Romney's hidden Mormon vote, one should add 5% to Romney's Iowa poll numbers.

-- The long campaign theme continues, but here's a new wrinkle: It looks more likely that both nomination fights will carry on past Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, and that most major candidates will last until February 5. But what if more than one major candidate survives Super Tuesday as well? Adam Nagourney lays out reasonable scenarios under which the five leading Republican candidates may split the first five states, while Democrats divide the first four, leading to a split on February 5 and a heated contest for delegates in subsequent contests. The nightmare scenario for a party, but the dream scenario for journalists: A divided convention. At least one candidate is planning for a post-February 5 battle: The Stranger reports Obama will set up a campaign office in Washington State, which caucuses on February 9.

-- As candidates and their surrogates criss-cross early states in the final two weeks before Iowa caucuses, some surrogates are, perhaps, better left at home. After pointedly mentioning Barack Hussein Obama, former Nebraska Senator and Clinton supporter Bob Kerrey went one step farther last night. "I've watched the blogs try to say that you can't trust him because he spent a litte bit of time in a secular madrassa. I feel quite the opposite," Kerrey told CNN. Was Kerrey taking another misguided shot at Obama, a la Billy Shaheen, or does he really not realize that he is spreading a rumor that is demonstrably untrue? If it's the second case, writes Marc Ambinder, maybe Obama's camp really does have something to worry about after securing the nomination.

-- Speaking of Clinton's folks, and of Billy Shaheen, is it possible Clinton could win Iowa but lose New Hampshire? State Rep. Jim Splaine, he of the first-in-the-nation primary law from 1976 and a big Clinton backer, says the candidate is talking to or at New Hampshire voters, not with them, the Washington Post reports. That, he says, is not how someone wins the Granite State. Still, Splaine's first love is a New Hampshire primary: "In fact, one of the strengths of the NH [sic] Primary is that candidates indeed have that chance, to get away from the podiums and look us in the eye, face-to-face, not talking over our heads," he wrote at the blog Blue Hampshire.

-- Slightly off the beaten path, Mike Bloomberg is seriously thinking about a run for president, it seems. Bloomberg has told friends that he would spend up to $1 billion to get himself in the White House, but now he's taking the step of actually feeling out some of his campaign advisers. At least one adviser, who had wanted to go work for Clinton, was told to stay out of the race for now and wait to see what Bloomberg does, the New York Post reports. Locking up a campaign team is not the first step toward deciding on a run -- it's actually several steps down the line.

-- Ridiculously Cool Interactive Graphic Of The Day: The New York Times has somehow charted the number of times each candidate has said another candidate's last name during debates, divided up by each debate. Not surprisingly, Hillary Clinton wins the most mentions, with either Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney coming in second place.

-- Today On The Trail: John Edwards holds town hall meetings with country stars Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne in Lebanon, Keene and Nashua, New Hampshire. Barack Obama has a policy forum in Des Moines. Hillary Clinton holds town halls in Ottumwa and Donnellson, Iowa, then heads to an open press low-dollar fundraiser in Chicago. Bill Richardson meets students in Davenport, Iowa, then heads to Manchester, New Hampshire for a town hall meeting. Chris Dodd has a town hall in Mason City.

-- On the GOP side, Mitt Romney gives a speech in Spartanburg, holds press availabilities in West Columbia, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia, followed by campaign events in North Charleston and Myrtle Beach. John McCain gives a speech in Salem, makes a pit stop in Hollis, visits a house party in Nashua and has a town hall meeting in Hudson. Fred Thompson's big bus tour continues, with stops in Manchester, Decorah and Waterloo, Iowa. And Rudy Giuliani takes time off the trail to fundraise in New York.