Morning Thoughts: Dead Tree Edition
Good Monday morning. Welcome to the final full week of campaigning before Christmas, New Years and the Iowa caucuses. Hillary Clinton is celebrating by hitting six national television shows. Ron Paul chose to celebrate by raising $6 million yesterday. More on that later. In the meantime, here's what Washington is watching:
-- The Senate meets today to resume consideration of a bill to remake the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. A motion to proceed vote will be taken at noon. The House is considering a number of bills under suspension before taking up energy legislation the Senate amended last week. President Bush has been reduced to giving a speech at a Holiday Inn in Fredericksburg, Virginia, while Treasury Secretary Paulson gives a speech on the mortgage crisis in Orlando and Secretary of State Rice attends a donor conference in support of the Palestinian government in Paris.
-- A story to watch as it emerges: Over the last several weeks, as Democrats in Congress have done all they could to pass spending measures, many in the party in Washington have been frustrated as Republicans have outmaneuvered them at virtually every turn. As AP takes a look at Democrats' need for a new strategy, party insiders acknowledge that, despite their Congressional majorities, Democrats gave up on Iraq war funding, energy and spending, all in the last few weeks. Republicans still face a risk in 2008, and their brand is certainly unpopular. But Democrats can't have made their base happy by rolling over so often and, seemingly, so easily.
-- The big news over the weekend: Newspaper endorsements. The Des Moines Register chose John McCain and Hillary Clinton, while the Boston Globe is backing Barack Obama and McCain. Each campaign is rolling out a big endorsement virtually every day -- Bob Kerrey for Clinton (no surprise, but still brings headlines), Joe Lieberman for McCain (something of a surprise, lots of headlines and help with crucial New Hampshire independents), Robert Bork for Romney (probably pretty valuable to his campaign), Iowa First Lady Mari Culver for Edwards (a la Christie Vilsack for John Kerry in '04?). Expect the names to keep coming.
-- For McCain, the endorsements of big newspapers plays right into his campaign strategy: While Rudy Giuliani and Romney feud over immigration, all while handling upstart Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson's constant grenades, McCain sits above it all and talks about the importance of the war in Iraq. He's made himself out to be the only adult in the Republican race. It's the same thing Joe Biden has tried to accomplish, with markedly less success, on the Democratic side.
-- For Clinton, the Register's backing is simply huge. Her chances in Iowa were all but over, some were wondering what would happen if she finished third there, and recent polls have shown her firewall in New Hampshire falling apart as well. The paper's backing gives Clinton a boost, a chance to regain some momentum at a crucial time, and, most critically, denies Obama the chance to tout the endorsement. It could be just what Clinton needs to get back on track.
-- For Obama, the Register's nod isn't a crisis of epic proportions. The Globe's backing, though, is huge news: As recent polls have shown him gaining on Clinton (he's just 3 points back in the latest RCP New Hampshire Average), conventional wisdom is evolving to accept the possibility that Obama does not have to win Iowa to prevent Clinton from taking the cake. His poll numbers, which were supposed to improve dramatically after an Iowa win, are already there in New Hampshire, while his South Carolina support is rising too. Like the GOP nomination, the Democratic fight might not be over until at least February 5. Still, not everyone understands the Globe's endorsement, like the always subtle Wolf Blitzer, yesterday on CNN's Late Edition: "Now a lot of people could argue, who cares about the Boston Globe?" Obama's fans care: The endorsement could extend the race and help Obama make it a two-person fight after Iowa.
-- Obama also won the endorsement of Iowa Rep. Dave Loebsack, meaning, as Ben Smith points out, that all three Iowa Democrats went with a different presidential contender. The picks fit, though: Loebsack the college professor goes with Obama. Edwards gets trial lawyer Bruce Braley. And Clinton gets long-time establishment Rep. Leonard Boswell. Both New Hampshire Reps. Carol Shea Porter and Paul Hodes are on Obama's side. On the GOP side, Rep. Steve King is set to make an announcement today. King is an anti-illegal immigration activist who is close with Rep. Tom Tancredo, though he's playing coy and maintains that no one aside from himself knows his true intentions. Rep. Tom Latham has yet to make a pick either.
-- Is Rudy Giuliani banking too much on this whole February 5 idea? He's virtually non-existent in Iowa. His South Carolina presence is not what it could be. And now he even trails in polls in Florida. And while he claims to be making an effort in New Hampshire, where he has a campaign stop today, Giuliani is cutting back his television ad spending in the Granite State this week, Nashua Telegraph's Kevin Landrigan reports. Giuliani is still spending plenty on Manchester-based WMUR, but he is reducing spending levels in the Boston media market, dropping initial ad buys by fifty to one hundred percent. Romney is still out-spending the field at about $250,000 a week on WMUR alone, followed by Giuliani, who had been at $180,000, and John McCain, at $120,000.
-- Ron Paul Moneybomb Of The Day: You thought $4.2 million in a day was a lot? You ain't seen nothin' yet. Ron Paul hauled in an astonishing $6.026 million yesterday, according to campaign spokesman Jesse Benton, breaking the record $5.7 million held by John Kerry in 2004. That money came from 58,000 donors, nearly 25,000 of them first-time givers. Paul has pulled in over $18 million this quarter, which will probably put him on top of the GOP field when FEC reports are due in mid-February.
-- Today On The Trail: Giuliani is in Durham, New Hampshire, while McCain hits Hillsborough, Concord and Weare, New Hampshire. Fred Thompson starts "The Clear Conservative Choice: Hands Down" bus tour (we're not making that up) through Iowa, meeting voters in Dubuque, while Mitt Romney holds town hall meetins in Londonderry, Manchester and Goffstown, New Hampshire. Mike Huckabee appears on Larry King Live tonight from Los Angeles.
-- On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton stops in Johnston and Des Moines after the morning shows, followed by events in Davenport and Coralville. Obama continues his bus tour through Spencer, Storm Lake, Cherokee, Le Mars and Sioux City. Edwards finishes up his bus tour in Des Moines before campaigning in Cedar Rapids and Davenport. Dennis Kucinich and Joe Biden are in New Hampshire, where Kucinich holds events in Sunapee, Claremont and New London, and Biden hits a house party in New Ipswich.


