Morning Thoughts: Came In On Sunday Once
Good Monday morning. Twenty two days until Christmas and exactly one month until the biggest holiday of all: The Iowa caucuses. Do they make advent calendars for a caucus? What would be in the little boxes? We're guessing yard signs, supporter cards and buttons. Here's what Washington has on its mind today:
-- The Senate meets for the first time in a few weeks and picks up where it left off on the farm bill. No roll call votes, however, are expected. The House takes a final day of rest before gathering tomorrow. President Bush attends a meeting with businessmen working towards a U.S.-Palestinian public-private partnership at the White House, while Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson makes remarks at the Office of Thrift Supervision's National Housing Forum. That one could move a few markets. Breaking news this morning as President Bush plans a Rose Garden news conference to challenge Congress on its agenda.
-- Congress has a lot of work on its plate before it leaves for holiday break, the Washington Post reports. Members still have to deal with eleven of the twelve appropriations bills, most of which are hovering between conference committee and a presidential veto. Democrats also hope to pass a cure for the alternative minimum tax, but they're so late in doing so that the IRS has suggested a revision would delay some tax returns. Before any of those can be tackled, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid wants to get the farm bill out of the way, followed by a bill on wiretapping, as the House takes up energy legislation. With so much on their plates, don't be surprised if Congress is in session on Christmas Eve.
-- Two special elections will take place next Tuesday to replace members of Congress who passed away early next year, and an odd occurrence is taking place: Democrats are playing seriously in Ohio's 5th District, vacated by the late Paul Gillmor, and Virginia 01, left open by Jo Ann Davis. Both seats are heavily Republican -- Gillmor's voted for President Bush by more than 20 points in both elections, while Davis' district topped a 20-point gap for Bush in 2004 but not 2000 -- but Democrats think they have a chance, or are at least forcing the NRCC to spend money it doesn't have. Last-minute independent expenditure reports with the FEC show the DCCC dropped $148,000 into ads against Republican Bob Latta in Ohio, while informed speculation suggests that the DNC is practicing turnout operations in Virginia. The move is working a little bit: The NRCC spent $11,000 on the two races at the end of last week, and one expenditure -- against the Democrat running in Virginia -- was for ad production, meaning more spending is on its way.
-- As we mentioned above, the presidential contests are a month away from at least starting the process of concluding (ending right away would be too simple and straight forward). A Des Moines Register poll out over the weekend showed Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama leading their fields, by five and three points, respectively. Just in time for December, we have two real races. The biggest priority for Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney: Stopping their slides now and getting some positive press. The biggest problem looming for Huckabee and Obama: The danger of peaking too soon. A month is still a long time, certainly long enough for a campaign to collapse.
-- And some candidates are getting in trouble, the Iowa way. As Joe Biden pointed out at the Iowa Democrats' Jefferson Jackson Dinner, Barack Obama has a lot of supporters, and many of them are willing to drive from Chicago for their guy. Obama's camp wants to use those supporters (and who wouldn't?), but to do so he has to tread lightly. As his campaign encourages out-of-state students to become Iowa voters, he runs the risk of infuriating local Iowans, and he's already stepping on David Yepsen's toes. If there's one person no candidate wants to offend, it's Yepsen. As for the out-of-state component of Obama's campaign, it reminds, in a sense, of Howard Dean's "perfect storm," wherein the easiest way for an Iowa voter to determine who was from out of state was by the orange Dean for President ski caps. And we saw how that worked out.
-- It's been a solid year of campaigning, and it's not over yet, the Boston Globe speculates. With more money, at least three well-funded candidates on each side and a second tier that has its own big bank account, campaigns that don't win Iowa or New Hampshire will not see their money dry up as early as previous years: They simply have more in reserve. That means the nomination fights are only getting longer, and, given that Clinton and Obama have already come close to the $100 million mark, it may be the case that even the large number of February 5th contests are not decisive. Look out, Washington State caucuses on February 9th: the candidates are headed your way.
-- In 2000, New Hampshire launched John McCain as a contender. In 2004, Iowa bolstered John Edwards' prospects. Now, both find themselves trailing in states in which they once over-performed. But both candidates had a very good weekend, and other candidates will be wise not to write off their chances. First, McCain won a glowing endorsement from the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state's largest and most conservative newspaper. Then today, Edwards picked up the endorsement of Rep. Bruce Braley, the freshman congressman who represents much of the eastern part of the state. For both Edwards and McCain, the new endorsements could lead to a resurgence in states on which they have bet a large part of their fortunes.
-- Speaking of McCain, the candidate has been a long-time friend of radio host Don Imus, whose unfortunate comments earlier this year sparked his ouster from radio and MSNBC. Today, Imus is back on the air, and McCain will join him to welcome him back, along with Democratic consultant James Carville. McCain has a history of shooting off his mouth at times, so how will his being coupled with a shock jock known for insensitivity go over with voters? He's not alone in taking the risk: Imus has Huckabee set for Tuesday. How many swing voters and DC insiders still listen to Imus? Not enough to impress a few Democratic candidates; Clinton's camp says she has no plans to be back on the show, and Obama has already said he doesn't plan to appear, the Daily News reports.
-- Thing That Irritates Bill Gardner ... Of The Day: New Hampshire residents aren't the first folks getting their ballots, The Swamp reports. Floridians will be the first to cast ballots, as early as Christmas Day and nine long days before the Iowa caucuses. That's great for Republican candidates like Rudy Giuliani, who leads in Florida polls, or Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, who have campaigned there for months. It's not so good for Mike Huckabee or John McCain, who don't have the money necessary to compete in ad wars and need a bounce from Iowa or New Hampshire. Still, few people will vote early, giving everyone a chance to catch up.
-- Today On The Trail: Mike Huckabee stops by The Early Show on CBS before hitting an interview on Iowa Public Radio. Later, he stops twice in Des Moines before appearing on Nightline. Rudy Giuliani is in Greensboro, North Carolina, while Mitt Romney is in Manchester and Hampton. John McCain begins a week-long swing through New Hampshire, with stops today in Durham and Hooksett. And Fred Thompson participates in a town hall meeting with small business owners.
-- On the Democratic side, Clinton holds events in Clear Lake, Sioux City and Council Bluffs, Iowa. Edwards has town hall meetings in Waterloo and Burlington, while Obama holds a roundtable discussion in Des Moines. Joe Biden gives a foreign policy speech in Iowa City before hitting a town hall at the University of Iowa there. Bill Richardson has an Iraq-focused town hall in Newton, and Chris Dodd begins a bus tour with stops in Ottumwa and Des Moines.


