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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« How Far He's Come | Blog Home Page | RichMentum? »

Morning Thoughts: Benching Huck

Good Sunday morning. Candidates head to church before the final Sunday before the caucuses while David Yepsen gets his quadrennial appearance on Fox News Sunday to predict winners (he punted). Meanwhile, two journalists who shall remain nameless report that "Caucus: The Musical" is a must-see event. Here's what Iowans are contending with today:

-- Today On The Trail: Barack Obama hits the road in Knoxville, Newton, Indianola and Des Moines. John Edwards makes stops in Boone, Carroll, Mapelton and Sioux City, while Hillary Clinton is in Vinton, Traer, Cedar Falls and Iowa Falls. Bill Richardson makes stops in Marshalltown, Des Moines, Fort Dodge, while Chris Dodd is in Le Mars, Elkader, Emmetsburg, Dubuque, Anamosa and Mason City. Joe Biden hosts events in Mason City, Garner, and Algona.

-- On the GOP side, Mitt Romney is in Columbus Junction, Iowa City, Mount Vernon, Moscow and Bettendorf, then closes his day with an online video conference. Fred Thompson is in Ames, Webster City and Hampton. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are in New Hampshire, with the Mayor making stops in Plymouth, Lincoln and Bretton Woods, while the Senator hits Lebanon and Newport.

-- Most importantly: Anyone notice a missing name? Mike Huckabee is spending a day without public events after a scheduled sermon to a major church in Des Moines was canceled. Huckabee, the recipient of several weeks of bad press on a number of fronts, may have seen his peak, McClatchy's Steve Thomma writes. The campaign is relying heavily on volunteers they don't necessarily know, meaning they are essentially winging the ground game, as one Huckabee adviser told Politics Nation. If he has any hope of regaining momentum, should Huckabee really use one of his last five days on the trail for little more than a Meet The Press interview?

-- We reported yesterday from Indianola, where Huckabee and Giuliani held dueling events. Later, Giuliani had a town hall meeting before skipping out of the state. He will not be back before the caucuses. Giuliani has made twenty stops in Iowa, the Daily News reports, leaving many Iowans to write him off as a presidential hopeful altogether. How different this race would have been had Giuliani packed up and moved to Iowa six months ago. One underappreciated aspect of the GOP race: Thanks to the absence of Giuliani and McCain, Mike Huckabee finished second at the Ames straw poll. If he becomes the nominee, blame the guys who skipped the event and allowed Huckabee to outperform.

-- The Democratic race has the feeling of a Thanksgiving dinner in which no one likes those around the table. Open feuding breaks out at times, but it's mostly simmering, under-the-breath remarks. Clinton and Obama remain locked in a tussle over which would be the most electable in a general during swings through Mississippi river-side towns while John Edwards' wife went on the Today Show today to take a jab at Obama. "Senator Obama talks a nice talk, but John is the warrior in this race," she said.

-- The GOP side is that same dinner during a food fight: Messy and getting worse. The latest salvo comes from a poorly identified group associating itself with Mitt Romney for the sake of bashing Mormonism. The postcard, which CNN writes purports to be from the Romney family, landed in South Carolina mailboxes wishing voters a happy new year, complete with quotes on the Virgin Mary being "fair and white" (from the Book of Mormon) and on God having multiple wives. Romney's camp said there is "absolutely no place" for the kind of mailing in politics. Iowa has the largest evangelical population outside of the South; why haven't more anti-Mormon mailings shown up here?

-- In Iowa, independent voters are not a hugely important segment of the population. In New Hampshire, they're crucial: A recent LA Times/Bloomberg poll had Obama leading Clinton in the Democratic race by two points; Clinton led by seven among Democrats, while Obama had a whopping 13-point lead among independents. Bad news for John McCain, good news for Barack Obama: 60% of independents in the Granite State say they plan to pick a Democratic ballot, while just 39% say they will choose to participate in the GOP race. McCain needs to pull actual Republican votes if his challenge to Romney is to be successful.

-- Fox News is no fan of Ron Paul, and Ron Paul is no fan of Fox News. The network is excluding Paul from a debate January 6 at the campus of St. Anselm College. In response, Paul tells the Boston Globe that Fox folks "are propagandists for this war, and I challenge them on the notion that they are conservative." Paul will get to debate at the school, though the day before, in a debate sponsored by ABC News, WMUR and, for some reason, Facebook. That day, both the Democratic and Republican fields will hold back to back debates. Paul heads to Iowa soon after spending most of his time in New Hampshire in recent days.

-- Whatever happens in Iowa may not matter, David Broder reports, if Mike Bloomberg and a group of influential independents have their way. A group of high-powered moderates, including former Senators Sam Nunn, Chuck Robb, Bob Graham and David Boren -- all Democrats -- and Republican luminaries like Chuck Hagel, John Danforth and Christie Todd Whitman, as well as Bloomberg, will meet at the University of Oklahoma to discuss the possibility of a third party presidential campaign if the two major parties nominate people who they think would further divide the country. Are there enough voters out there to give a third party choice a win? Probably not, but there are certainly enough to severely screw with everyone's predictions.

-- Recurring Trend Of The Day: We wrote recently that illegal immigration is not a vote-moving issue in a general election. Still, it's something that gets a lot of people hot under the collar. In Indianola yesterday, Minuteman Project founder Jim Gilchrist was always surrounded by fans, while Tim Hutchison, a former Senator, stood by himself. The icing on the cake: Dallas Morning News' "Texan Of The Year" is the illegal immigrant. Before next year is out, given the amount of attention the issue receives from all sides, the illegal immigrant might be person of the year from a number of other states as well.