Morning Thoughts: Back To Work!
Well that didn't last long. Candidates are hitting the trail hard with just a few days to go before Iowa voters head to their caucuses, and today marks the last day that Politics Nation takes it easy before two nominees are chosen. With Congress out of session for the next few weeks, here's what Washington is watching:
-- Today On The Trail: Mitt Romney hits Concord, Henniker, Hooksett and Merrimack, New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani is in Largo, Florida. Mike Huckabee fundraises in Miami, while John McCain holds a town hall in Council Bluffs, Iowa, and Fred Thompson meets voters in Creston, Iowa.
-- On the Democratic side, John Edwards has town halls in Conway, Laconia, Manchester and Salem, while Barack Obama meets voters in Mason City, Webster City and Carroll, Iowa. Hillary Clinton is in Mount Pleasant with the Vilsacks and her husband, before hitting events in Pella and Cumming. Joe Biden is in Des Moines.
-- The schedules hold lessons for the candidates' strategies just days before the first votes are cast: Mitt Romney needs New Hampshire. John McCain sees an opening in Iowa -- as does Fred Thompson. Rudy Giuliani is still pursuing the post-Iowa/New Hampshire strategy and banking on Florida and more. Mike Huckabee just needs money,
-- Meanwhile, John Edwards is secure in his position in Iowa -- the veteran caucus-goers who back him now are going to show up, and their base is going to spread on caucus night, when they can convince others to join their team. Now, Edwards needs a bigger base in post-Iowa states. Obama still needs to boost his base in the nation's first caucus state. He narrowly trails Clinton in the latest RCP Iowa Average, thanks to a lopsided American Research Group poll, and Edwards presents a real threat. Obama, again, needs to step up the Iowa effort. Clinton, at this point, has won over everyone she can on her own in Iowa. Now she has to rely on arguments that she is the most capable of leading and that Tom and Christie Vilsack know whereof they speak.
-- Mitt Romney is a smart guy. His efforts as a venture capitalist and business consultant turned around many top U.S. companies. But what has $16 million in advertising gotten him? Not much, the Chicago Tribune reports. The governor has spend more than both Clinton and Obama (combined) as well as just under 8 times what Rudy Giuiani has spent, and still he trails both Giuliani and Hucakbee in national polls. 7,400 commercials in Iowa, per Nielsen, have done enough to get him in second place. If Romney has a chance, he needs new, more powerful ads. Then again, with his first post-Christmas day spent in New Hampshire, does that mean Romney is focusing more on the Granite State than on the Hawkeye State? If so, he's no longer competing with Huckabee; he's taking direct aim at John McCain.
-- Whether it's Romney, Huckabee or any of the Republican candidates, most conservatives still have not made up their minds, the AP
reports. Libby Quaid writes that, with a week to go before the caucuses, even those who say they like one candidate over the others will offer qualifying statements saying their minds could change. The big lesson: The Democratic race is close. The GOP race, in Iowa and beyond, is impossible to predict.
-- For Democrats, the big question is who shows up. If there's a giant blizzard, Edwards probably benefits with his experienced caucus-going backers. But Iowa
first-timers are well divided between Clinton and Obama, and either has a shot at taking the crucial voting bloc. Obama appeals to youth and independent voters. Clinton is backed by EMILY's List, which boasts an impressive number of voter contacts to undecided women who generally vote Democratic but have not caucused. Of the two candidates, whichever base turns out better will probably walk away with a win.
-- Your Next Career Move Of The Day: Bob Shrum, Tad Devine and Mike Donilon, John Kerry's three top campaign ad gurus in 2004, raked in about $5 million from that single campaign, the New
York Times reports. That was the lion's share of the $9 million the campaign spent on consultants, more than President Bush did during the same year. Want to retire young? Get into Democratic ad consulting.
-- Politics Nation is on the West Coast until tomorrow, when we set up shop in Des Moines. Light posting today, but check back regularly for breaking news and analysis from Iowa all week, as well as countdowns of the most important news in politics over 2007.


