Ohio's 5th District, vacant since the September death of Rep. Paul Gillmor, appears on the surface to be a Republican lock. But the DCCC may think otherwise, what with its recent major ad buy. And a closer look at the district may show why.

True, President Bush did win the district with 61% in 2004, while Gillmor carried it that year with 67%. But in the Democratic year of 2006, Gillmor's take dropped 10 points. Conversely, Robin Weirauch, the 2004, 2006 and now 2007 Democratic nominee jumped 10 points from 33% to 43% between 2004 and 2006.

But the 20-point turnaround between elections had little to do with Weirauch winning over more voters, and everything to do with Republicans not showing up to the polls. In 2004, Gillmor received 196,649 votes to Weirauch's 96,659. In 2006, his vote total plunged to 129,813, while Weirauch's remained about even at 98,544.

Weirauch will have to hope that the trend between '04 and '06 continues in '07, but she'll absolutely need to pick up some more Democratic voters to upset Latta. And the DCCC knows well that a win in December 2007 makes a win in November 2008 far easier.

An interesting battle for votes will take place in Wood County, the district's largest county and home to the university town of Bowling Green and some Toledo suburbs. Republican Bob Latta represents the county in the state House, and carried it in the 2006 state elections with 57%. Though Weirauch did not win one county in 2006, she came closest in Wood, taking 49.6% of the vote against Gillmor.

If Latta loses his home county, where he's served in the state Senate and House since 1996, he may have reason to sweat a bit. But Weirauch will still need to make up a ton of ground in the other counties she finished closest in 2006 to overcome the 31,000+ vote margin she lost to Gillmor by. Those counties include: Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Huron and Sandusky.

By November 21, the latest FEC reporting date for this special election, she had already spent more than she had the entire 2006 election cycle. If she were to win, with one week to go that spending would need to continue to increase, and fast. And while the goal is to get out more Democratic voters, winning will require even more Republicans staying home.

-- Kyle Trygstad