In the last version of the Politics Nation Exchange, we dropped Colorado from the third-most likely state to switch parties to the fifth-most likely. But for the second time in recent months, a new poll suggests Republican former Rep. Bob Schaffer may have a better chance at keeping the seat in GOP hands than conventional wisdom suggests.

The poll, by Research for Change, Inc., surveyed Schaffer and Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat seen as the odds-on favorite to steal the seat from retiring Sen. Wayne Allard. Conducted 12/3-5, the poll surveyed 500 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Udall 39 / 78 / 11 / 35 / 36 / 42
Schaffer 37 / 8 / 69 / 25 / 44 / 31

The poll shows a lot of Colorado voters are undecided, the same conclusion a poll conducted by Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli. That poll found Udall leading by a narrow 36% to 35%.

Udall has outraised Schaffer by a wide margin, and he's considered a top recruit against the GOP's second or third choice. Udall also leads among independents, and given that independents have broken heavily to Democrats in recent Colorado elections, he is in good position to capture many of the remaining 40% who are undecided. Still, there's a long way to go until November, and for now Schaffer does not seem to be rolling over and playing dead.