CONCORD, NH -- The surge is working. The surge is not working. At this point, it virtually doesn't matter; a vast majority of Americans want an end to the war in Iraq and they are not about to be persuaded otherwise. Similarly, a large portion of Americans view President Bush unfavorably. The latest RCP Average shows just 33% of Americans think the president is doing a good job, while 61% view his job performance unfavorably.

After seven years in office, those opinions are hardening with each passing day, making a Bush comeback all but impossible. Some, though, like former White House adviser Karl Rove, think the president is set to bounce back, now that some Democrats admit the surge's success. Because of the impending rebound, Rove told the Washington Times, GOP candidates should do their best not to alienate him and the core Republicans who make up those who approve of his job performance.

Despite a much better relationship now than they enjoyed seven years ago, John McCain is not taking that suggestion. The Arizona Senator, traveling in New Hampshire this week, took pains at a joint MTV/MySpace forum last night to distance himself from the current administration's shortcomings. Discussing the genocide in Darfur with a crowd of college students at Southern New Hampshire University, McCain said he would have taken a different tactic than Bush did. "We're still a leader in the world, and I would have used the bully pulpit a lot more," McCain said to applause. "I would have made it a higher priority.

McCain also criticized Bush for refusing to veto spending bills the Republican Congress passed in recent years, which led, McCain charged, to rampant, out of control spending. McCain said he personally asked Bush to veto the bills but was rebuffed.

Aside from Bush, there is perhaps no serving public official more associated with the war in Iraq than McCain. But last night, he promised a questioner that he recognized the approach to Iraq had likely wounded future presidents. Asked what it would take for him to attack another Middle Eastern country, specifically Syria or Iran, McCain promised to carefully consider any military action and to consult Congress. "The American people are cynical because of how we got into the last conflict," McCain said. "I'd make very, very sure my intelligence sources were accurate."

"For four years this war was mishandled, and it was badly mishandled," he said, criticizing former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Still, he said the surge is working, and that Iraq's future should be viewed with "caution but with a little optimism." In front of a crowd of students, the demographic perhaps most likely to oppose the war, McCain made the case that American troops in Iraq know why they're there. "They know that if they don't succeed, [al Qaeda] will follow us home, and there will be chaos and genocide."

McCain won cheers from students. Asked after the forum whether his position on Iraq was a significant concern to them, several students who opposed the war said no, and none brought the issue up on their own. That skill is something any Republican is going to have to acquire as the Democratic nominee taps into the vast reservoir of opposition to the war.

Whether Rove is right about staying on the president's good side, McCain is finding at least some success in being critical of certain aspects of the administration's record. Both are laying out a blueprint for the GOP's approach to November's general election. Which path the eventual Republican nominee takes may determine whether the party stays in the White House or slides further into a national minority.