DES MOINES -- Mike Huckabee has ordered his staff to cancel a negative ad that had already been delivered to television stations, he told members of the media at a news conference. The candidate, who spent the morning jogging and visiting volunteers at his downtown Des Moines headquarters, then proceeded to show the ad anyway.

Huckabee has lately been taking a harder line against Romney. The ad hit Romney on several issues, including crime and abortion. Need proof that he's serious? Look no farther than The Page:

Photo credit: Mark Halperin

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour today announced he will officially name Rep. Roger Wicker to replace Senator Trent Lott, who resigned as the first session of the 110th Congress came to a close. Barbour made the announcement at an 11 a.m. news conference in Jackson, the Clarion Ledger reported, while another press conference will be held in the Southern part of the state, in Gulfport, later today.

After two terms in the Mississippi Senate, Wicker has served in the House since 1994, when he succeeded retiring Democratic Rep. Jamie Whitten. A former aide to Lott, Wicker has not faced a truly competitive race in any of his six re-election campaigns, meaning national Republicans have little to fear from the new vacancy. The district, which covers the north and northwest part of the state, gave President Bush about 60% of the vote both times he ran.

When the new senator has to run for retainment is unclear. Barbour says the election can be held in November, when the state's other Senate seat, held by Senator Thad Cochran, is also up. Attorney General Jim Hood, a Democrat, thinks Mississippi law dictates an election be held within 90 days of the appointment. The matter looks headed for a courtroom.

No matter the date of the election, WIcker looks like a safe bet to keep the seat in Republican hands. A recent poll taken by Research 2000 shows Wicker leading former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove, 47% to 39%. Former Attorney General Mike Moore, another Democrat the party hoped to lure into the race, has already said he will not compete for the seat.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

DES MOINES -- Looking for any advantage possible in the closing days before Iowans caucus, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are making their final pitches in very different ways. The two Iowa front-runners' final pitches are telling of the way their campaigns see themselves: Romney's last advertisement is a positive spot; Huckabee is said to be planning a shot at Romney.

Romney today launched a closing advertisement lightly touching on the points he has been hammering home this year: Businessman who turned around the Olympics and several big companies, and who can now turn Washington around. Huckabee, battered by weeks of critical ads from Romney, plans a response, a senior adviser told the Wall Street Journal.

That response ad was cut Sunday, when Huckabee took a day off campaigning to attend church and a film session. The ad, to come out today, accuses Romney of distorting Huckabee's record to hide from his own.

As has been the pattern throughout the year, candidates only attack one another when they are behind or when their lead is threatened. It took Huckabee gaining a lead for Romney to start paying attention; now, with Huckabee's apex seemingly behind him, the former Arkansas governor is getting into the act.

The move carries significant risk: Iowa voters say they do not like negative advertising, and though such advertising remains an effective campaign tool, using it at the end of a crowded caucus campaign means the last thing voters will see is Huckabee going after Romney instead of showing off his own sunny personality, which boosted his prospects in the first place.

Iowa voters who stay up late, though, will have the opportunity to see the funny side of Huckabee the night before the caucuses. While writers are still staying away and most A-list celebrities have not committed to booking the show, Huckabee will join Jay Leno on the comedian's first night back from the writers' strike, which began November 5, the Hollywood Reporter writes.

Hanging out with Leno, even if only by satellite, could prove a big boost for the naturally humorous Huckabee. In the waning days of an increasingly nasty campaign, leaving caucus-goers with a pleasant memory of the candidate is crucial. Romney's is already on the air. Whether voters remember Huckabee in the same way could determine Iowa's outcome.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

DES MOINES -- Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have based much of their strategy on turning out new caucus-going attendees, and it looks like Mother Nature is cooperating. While snow clouds menace the Iowa capitol this morning, the outlook for Thursday is much better, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures between 15 and 30 degrees throughout the day. So yes, it will be cold, but there could have been a snow storm or something.

Or could there? In fact, as AP legend Mike Glover pointed out to Politics Nation inside a freezing barn in Chariton in November, there has never been bad weather on caucus night. Fear-mongers who would warn of eight feet of snow and two feet of sheer ice need only look at the history books to find out that the weather has always cooperated.

January 19, 2004 was 15 degrees with light wind and overcast by caucus time, but no precipitation fell. January 24, 2000 brought balmy 33 degree temperatures by 6 p.m., down from a high of 41, and with only scattered clouds. It snowed three tenths of an inch in Des Moines on February 12, 1996, with the temperature near freezing, and two tenths of an inch on February 10, 1992, when the high reached 44 degrees. Neither can qualify as a major storm at all, and in fact both months barely had any snow -- just 3 inches more than a third of the way through.

You get the point: It may snow a little bit, but for the most part, the Iowa parties have done an exceptional job picking a day with good weather for their nominating contests. A review of weather reports going back to the first modern caucuses in 1972 shows caucus night has never seen more than half an inch of snow (1988) and has enjoyed more than its share of good weather (49 degrees in 1984).

Could it be that Mother Nature is an Iowa resident and really loves being able to examine the candidates up close and personal? Or does she just approve of Iowa holding their nominating contests first? The real question: Why hasn't New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner got the same talent for picking dates for his state's primary?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

DES MOINES -- Good Monday morning, and welcome to the last fifteen hours of 2007. This year seems like it should have been over months ago; on the other hand, who can actually believe it's already 2008? Iowans, it seems, just want to get this whole caucus thing over with. Here's what they're watching today:

-- Today On The Trail: John Edwards is in Storm Lake, Spencer, Emmetsburg and Algona before rocking out for New Years at his campaign office in Mason City. Barack Obama is partying all day, with stops in Perry, Jefferson, Boone, Iowa Falls and Ames, while Hillary Clinton finishes a swing through the east half of the state, making stops in Keokuk, Fort Madison, Muscatine, Waterloo and Des Moines. Joe Biden meets with caucus-goers in Fort Dodge, Ames and Newton, while Chris Dodd is in Oelwein, Waverly, Waterloo and Dubuque. Bill Richardson finishes his year in Ames, Perry, Winterset, Indianola, Knoxville and Des Moines.

-- For Republicans, Mike Huckabee is back on the trail, taking a jog with advisers and visiting volunteers at his campaign office before stopping by a New Years Eve party, all in Des Moines. Mitt Romney's bus tour stops in Clinton, Bellevue, Dubuque, Manchester, Independence and Waterloo, followed by a party with his family in Des Moines. Fred Thompson's going to be doing radio all morning, followed by a tour of Allison and its newspaper and a meet-and-greet in Tama. John McCain is in Hancock, Londonderry, Rye and Concord for house parties, while Rudy Giuliani is in New York with an empty public schedule.

-- Two new, and very divergent, story lines have emerged in the last few days: First, Mitt Romney is back on the move in Iowa; he once again leads in the latest RCP Iowa Average, though by a fraction of a point. Mike Huckabee has gone on the attack in recent days, signaling a recognition that his wave may have crested: Now he has to rely on bringing Romney down a peg or two instead of relying solely on HuckMentum. The former Arkansas governor, who cruised to the top of the GOP field largely on his positive message, even says Romney owes him an apology and an acknowledgment of his wrongdoing, Politico's Roger Simon writes.

-- The second new story line sounds like an old refrain from 2000: The Straight Talk Express is back. While Romney may prove able to come back from a slump against Huckabee, it is less clear that his lead in New Hampshire will hold out. Romney still leads by 5.6% in the latest RCP New Hampshire Average, but John McCain is clearly on the move. Then again, Romney's resurgence in Iowa raises two questions: Many thought Huckabee would pull out a Hawkeye win, so does a Romney win turn into a big boost? And, McCain is rising about the same time Huckabee did in Iowa; will we look back on 2008 as the year of the early peak? If Romney wins both early primary states, his strategy is back on track. If McCain can overtake him, the folks in Boston will need a serious reassessment.

-- In New Hampshire, McCain has the old magic, writes the Washington Post, though for different reasons than his surprising 2000 win: Back then, McCain appealed to independents who liked his maverick streak. Now, his support is coming from conservative and moderate Republicans, as well as independents, in equal measure, thanks largely to his support from the war. Still, the lean, mean operation of 2000 exists (Before the campaign's mid-July meltdown, "they were running a Bush-type reelection campaign," said supporter Peter Spaulding, who pronounced himself "pleased" with the shakeup), and the energy has returned with it.

-- Romney got good news yesterday when the Marshalltown Times-Republican and the Council Bluffs Daily Nonpareil announced their support. But the newspaper wars have a clear leader in John McCain, who along with the Des Moines Register, the New Hampshire Union Leader and the Boston Globe picked up the nod of the Concord Monitor and the Nashua Telegraph, giving him a whopping 26 endorsements in the Granite State, OnCall reports.

-- It helps to have Rudy Giuliani out of the state, at least for Mitt Romney. A cornerstone of the moderate New Yorker's pitch to conservatives has been his record appointing judges; make it five minutes with Giuliani without him mentioning John Roberts and Sam Alito and it's a miracle. No matter his disagreements, as he puts them, with conservatives, they can still trust him to hire good judges. With Giuliani and surrogates putting more emphasis on later states, though, it has been left to Mitt Romney to make his own argument on judges. MSNBC's Erin McPike reports Romney surrogates Jim Talent and Jay Sekulow, a former senator and a well-known pro-life attorney, respectively, have been meeting with clergy and evangelical leaders to talk to them about Romney's own judicial philosophy. Sekulow also took an implied shot at Mike Huckabee, arguing that it takes certain political skills to actually get conservative judges approved.

-- On the Democratic side, every prominent politician who backs a candidate for president and spends time stumping through the state should be given a card with three little words on it: "Don't Criticize Iowa." It makes big news, especially when it's someone like Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, who told the Columbus Dispatch in an interview that the Iowa caucuses were "hugely undemocratic" and the process "excludes so many people." "I'd like to see both parties say, 'We're going to bring this to an end.'" Strickland has made three trips to Iowa for Clinton, including one this weekend, though his comments are causing trouble, the Dispatch reports.

-- Clinton's supporter's gaffe may irritate Iowans, though the campaign rushed to assure them she still thinks they should go first. Indeed, Clinton is staying more positive these days, while an increasingly urgent and bitter feud breaks out between John Edwards and Barack Obama. Yesterday, Edwards said it takes a mean streak to bring change. "You can't nice these people to death." That perceived shot got to Obama, who called it "hot air," The Fix reports. The two are competing for the Anybody-But-Clinton vote, and actually pushing and shoving each other quite hard. We wondered a few months ago when their fight would break out into the open. If neither wins, it won't be hard to wonder what would have happened had either gone after the other earlier in the race.

-- Obama keeps engaging because his strategists now see they were wrong about one key piece of the puzzle: They believed Edwards would fade as caucuses drew closer and Iowa voters saw new faces. In fact, Edwards looks like he's repeating his 2004 performance and closing fast. The latest RCP Iowa Average has him tied for second with Obama, just 2 points back of Clinton. We wrote recently that there was no three-way race in Iowa, that Edwards trailed Obama and Clinton outside the margin of error. That has changed, and Edwards is making his comeback. Many have speculated that, had the Iowa caucuses been two or three days later in 2004, Edwards would have won. If his peak comes earlier this year, he just might be the next comeback kid.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

NEWTON, Iowa -- Fred Thompson points out to crowds that never in his political career has he lost an election. And he promises that he won't start losing with Iowa. Thompson, running a distant third in the race for delegates to be decided at Thursday's caucuses, should explain further: For him, a victory would be finishing third, winning a few delegates and surviving to fight again in South Carolina and other states that might welcome him more.

The former Senator and actor has been working the state hard in recent days after a slow start. Criticized for his perceived laziness, Thompson has jumped on a multi-week bus tour -- the only break being for Christmas Day -- and is pressing the flesh as much as he can. In Newton, a small town that once served as headquarters to the Maytag company, Thompson ended his day Saturday speaking to a packed room at a senior citizen's center.

That commitment alone should propel him to a good finish here; his opponents are not Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, who look poised to win and place, in either order. Thompson's chief rivals are John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, two better-known commodities who have nonetheless skipped out on Iowa. McCain held a brief series of events immediately after Christmas before returning to New Hampshire. Giuliani held all of four events over a day and a half in Iowa before doing the same. Both candidates will not even be in Iowa when voters here caucus.

Thompson is running hard, airing television advertisements and meeting as many voters as he can. Giuliani has all but pulled out, while McCain's radio ads are seldom heard. Thompson even has a greater presence than Ron Paul, whose billboards and few television spots are the extent of his paid media; Paul, too, will be in New Hampshire on caucus night. It speaks to Thompson's weakness here, then, that he places fourth in the latest RCP Iowa Average, at 11%. That's behind McCain's 11.4%, though five points above Giuliani and Paul, who finish with 6.2% each.

Because of a number of factors, it is the fight for third place that has become perhaps the most important mini-drama on the Republican side. Much of Romney's strategy is predicated on winning New Hampshire, and if McCain or Giuliani get a third-place boost coming out of Iowa, Romney's chances could be severely imperiled. Thompson, polling little above an asterisk in New Hampshire, would get a boost coming out of Iowa that he could take, rejuvenated, to South Carolina. Even Paul, with gobs of money and more motivated supporters than any other candidate, could force members of the media to eat their hats with a surprise finish.

Like the contest for the GOP nomination itself, the race for the last ticket out of Iowa is filled with intriguing subplots. Voters who find national security the most important issue have two candidates speaking their language, in both Thompson and Giuliani. Many still associate Giuliani with the September 11 terrorist attacks and his response in the aftermath, and Thompson fills much of his stump speech with terrorism talk, noting that he was the Republican floor manager for the measure that created the Department of Homeland Security.

"I think [Thompson] won't make rash decisions," Laurie Nelson, a Republican from Newton who is backing Thompson, said. His tough-guy persona has an impact as well. "I wouldn't want to buck him," she joked. Giuliani projects a strong image as well. If just one of them were running, security voters might coalesce more and give that candidate a boost.

McCain, who seems to take joy in sticking his fingers in the eyes of every Iowa voter he can find, still finds time to speak out against ethanol subsidies, a stand tantamount to political suicide. But many Republicans still back the war in Iraq, and McCain's record of support for the troop surge and opposition to anything remotely connected to Donald Rumsfeld, who took much of the blame for the war's early failings, keep McCain in good position to win votes from caucus-goers more concerned with the war.

And while the Des Moines Register's endorsement is more important in the Democratic race, the paper's choice of McCain on the GOP side will surely win him some additional support. Even backing from one-time candidate Sam Brownback has helped; Tim Loraditch, one of the few Iowans with a McCain yardsign in front of his house, came over after Brownback dropped out.

And what of Ron Paul? The Republican electorate is in a state of malaise. Unlike the Democratic side, where voters are undecided largely because they cannot choose between several options they like, large numbers of Republicans remain undecided because they cannot choose between several options they don't like. Paul's supporters are the only ones madly in love with their candidate.

It is not hard to imagine a situation in which a Republican backing one of the other candidates decides to stay in and watch football on January 3 while a much greater percentage of highly motivated Paul supporters line up hours ahead of time, giving him a surprisingly strong showing.

Neither McCain nor Giuliani want to appear as if they are competing for third place, setting expectations so low that even a fourth-place finish might be good news. But both are running a more under-the-radar campaign than people are led to believe. Thompson is working the state hard, though his message is resonating less than it once did; in his twenty-five minute speech in Newton, he was interrupted by applause not once. While his campaign claimed 150 people in attendance, a count of the room and an adjoining spill-over area came to 86, including staff and media.

The race for third place in Iowa could have a dramatic impact on the GOP nominating contest as a whole. McCain could use a third-place "better than expected" bounce to beat Romney in New Hampshire, where polls show a narrowing race. Giuliani could use the boost to resurrect what looks like a flagging campaign. Thompson could do the same, catapulting himself back into contention in far friendlier South Carolina. And Paul would stun everyone and generate a new round of jaw-dropped coverage.

Because Huckabee is viewed by many as having a weak organization in later states, and because Romney's campaign suddenly looks vulnerable in Iowa, a bronze medal here could serve as a predictor for the race as a whole. It is exceedingly rare for a Republican who finishes in third place to win the nomination; only George H.W. Bush pulled off the feat, in 1988. By the end of the 2008 primary season, he may not be alone.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 06:55 AM | Email Author | Permalink

DES MOINES -- Reporters from Washington, based in Des Moines for the week, are striving to get to as many candidate events as they can. It sure helps, though, when candidates make swings through the state capitol. It's a good idea, too: Des Moines is in the center of the state and serves as a perfect midway point for bus tours headed in any direction.

No wonder, then, that the state's biggest city will see three consecutive days of evening rallies by the three leading presidential contenders. The events are great visuals, well attended by energetic crowds and easy for reporters to cover.

John Edwards drew about 1,000 people to a rally downtown yesterday. Tonight, Barack Obama ends his day at a rally in a middle school gym on the east side of town. And Hillary Clinton finishes off the year tomorrow with a New Years party at the Capitol.

With four days to go, expect the orbits candidates take around Des Moines to shrink. Obama, for one, already has events scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

DES MOINES -- On a cold Sunday afternoon, more than 300 people packed a downtown performance space here to see yet another Democratic presidential contender. The crowd didn't come to hear Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or John Edwards; instead, they offered a raucous standing ovation as New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson entered the room. "I am honored to be in this huge crowd," he said. "Thank you for giving up your Sunday. It is Sunday, right?"

There may be a simple explanation for Richardson's big crowd: Actor and fake president Martin Sheen was expected to serve as host, though what he called a "severe, contagious" cold left him unable to fly to Iowa. Instead, and perhaps better for the candidate, he was introduced by supporter Nancy Sebring, superintendent of the Des Moines Public Schools. Then again, perhaps word of Richardson's legendary charisma, so lacking in most debates this year, has gotten around.

Alternately winning big applause and big laugh lines, Richardson's wide-ranging speech encompassed everything from education to the Constitution and the war in Iraq; he has called for perhaps the fastest withdrawal of American troops of any candidate, which he says differentiates him from the rest of the Democratic field. "They're all terrific, they're all great. They'd all make great vice presidents," he jokes.

Richardson told the crowd his campaign would surprise in Iowa, and that more than 18,000 caucus-goers had pledged to attend their caucuses on his behalf. While many voters will sign multiple pledge cards, the number of potential supporters remains impressive, and gives the campaign's 1250 precinct captains something to work with. "We need you to shock the world," Richardson said.

"Today, it begins. This effort, that is so American democracy," Richardson told the crowd, "where you go and try to get a certain percentage to survive." The governor stands at just 6.2% in the latest RCP Iowa Average, though he peaks at 12% in the latest Mason-Dixon survey for MSNBC and McClatchy. If the big crowd on a frigid weekend afternoon -- when most rational people are snuggly watching football games -- is any indication, RichMentum may be the next buzz word of the 2008 campaign.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Good Sunday morning. Candidates head to church before the final Sunday before the caucuses while David Yepsen gets his quadrennial appearance on Fox News Sunday to predict winners (he punted). Meanwhile, two journalists who shall remain nameless report that "Caucus: The Musical" is a must-see event. Here's what Iowans are contending with today:

-- Today On The Trail: Barack Obama hits the road in Knoxville, Newton, Indianola and Des Moines. John Edwards makes stops in Boone, Carroll, Mapelton and Sioux City, while Hillary Clinton is in Vinton, Traer, Cedar Falls and Iowa Falls. Bill Richardson makes stops in Marshalltown, Des Moines, Fort Dodge, while Chris Dodd is in Le Mars, Elkader, Emmetsburg, Dubuque, Anamosa and Mason City. Joe Biden hosts events in Mason City, Garner, and Algona.

-- On the GOP side, Mitt Romney is in Columbus Junction, Iowa City, Mount Vernon, Moscow and Bettendorf, then closes his day with an online video conference. Fred Thompson is in Ames, Webster City and Hampton. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are in New Hampshire, with the Mayor making stops in Plymouth, Lincoln and Bretton Woods, while the Senator hits Lebanon and Newport.

-- Most importantly: Anyone notice a missing name? Mike Huckabee is spending a day without public events after a scheduled sermon to a major church in Des Moines was canceled. Huckabee, the recipient of several weeks of bad press on a number of fronts, may have seen his peak, McClatchy's Steve Thomma writes. The campaign is relying heavily on volunteers they don't necessarily know, meaning they are essentially winging the ground game, as one Huckabee adviser told Politics Nation. If he has any hope of regaining momentum, should Huckabee really use one of his last five days on the trail for little more than a Meet The Press interview?

-- We reported yesterday from Indianola, where Huckabee and Giuliani held dueling events. Later, Giuliani had a town hall meeting before skipping out of the state. He will not be back before the caucuses. Giuliani has made twenty stops in Iowa, the Daily News reports, leaving many Iowans to write him off as a presidential hopeful altogether. How different this race would have been had Giuliani packed up and moved to Iowa six months ago. One underappreciated aspect of the GOP race: Thanks to the absence of Giuliani and McCain, Mike Huckabee finished second at the Ames straw poll. If he becomes the nominee, blame the guys who skipped the event and allowed Huckabee to outperform.

-- The Democratic race has the feeling of a Thanksgiving dinner in which no one likes those around the table. Open feuding breaks out at times, but it's mostly simmering, under-the-breath remarks. Clinton and Obama remain locked in a tussle over which would be the most electable in a general during swings through Mississippi river-side towns while John Edwards' wife went on the Today Show today to take a jab at Obama. "Senator Obama talks a nice talk, but John is the warrior in this race," she said.

-- The GOP side is that same dinner during a food fight: Messy and getting worse. The latest salvo comes from a poorly identified group associating itself with Mitt Romney for the sake of bashing Mormonism. The postcard, which CNN writes purports to be from the Romney family, landed in South Carolina mailboxes wishing voters a happy new year, complete with quotes on the Virgin Mary being "fair and white" (from the Book of Mormon) and on God having multiple wives. Romney's camp said there is "absolutely no place" for the kind of mailing in politics. Iowa has the largest evangelical population outside of the South; why haven't more anti-Mormon mailings shown up here?

-- In Iowa, independent voters are not a hugely important segment of the population. In New Hampshire, they're crucial: A recent LA Times/Bloomberg poll had Obama leading Clinton in the Democratic race by two points; Clinton led by seven among Democrats, while Obama had a whopping 13-point lead among independents. Bad news for John McCain, good news for Barack Obama: 60% of independents in the Granite State say they plan to pick a Democratic ballot, while just 39% say they will choose to participate in the GOP race. McCain needs to pull actual Republican votes if his challenge to Romney is to be successful.

-- Fox News is no fan of Ron Paul, and Ron Paul is no fan of Fox News. The network is excluding Paul from a debate January 6 at the campus of St. Anselm College. In response, Paul tells the Boston Globe that Fox folks "are propagandists for this war, and I challenge them on the notion that they are conservative." Paul will get to debate at the school, though the day before, in a debate sponsored by ABC News, WMUR and, for some reason, Facebook. That day, both the Democratic and Republican fields will hold back to back debates. Paul heads to Iowa soon after spending most of his time in New Hampshire in recent days.

-- Whatever happens in Iowa may not matter, David Broder reports, if Mike Bloomberg and a group of influential independents have their way. A group of high-powered moderates, including former Senators Sam Nunn, Chuck Robb, Bob Graham and David Boren -- all Democrats -- and Republican luminaries like Chuck Hagel, John Danforth and Christie Todd Whitman, as well as Bloomberg, will meet at the University of Oklahoma to discuss the possibility of a third party presidential campaign if the two major parties nominate people who they think would further divide the country. Are there enough voters out there to give a third party choice a win? Probably not, but there are certainly enough to severely screw with everyone's predictions.

-- Recurring Trend Of The Day: We wrote recently that illegal immigration is not a vote-moving issue in a general election. Still, it's something that gets a lot of people hot under the collar. In Indianola yesterday, Minuteman Project founder Jim Gilchrist was always surrounded by fans, while Tim Hutchison, a former Senator, stood by himself. The icing on the cake: Dallas Morning News' "Texan Of The Year" is the illegal immigrant. Before next year is out, given the amount of attention the issue receives from all sides, the illegal immigrant might be person of the year from a number of other states as well.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

INDIANOLA, Iowa -- In December, 2005, then-Arkansas Governor and National Governors' Association head Mike Huckabee sat down with two reporters aboard a dinner cruise boat anchored in the Potomac River in Southwest Washington. Then, the governor took questions from a reporter with Stateline.org and this scribe, at the time with The Hotline.

Things change, and quickly. Today, in front of a packed house of hundreds of supporters at a restaurant here, Huckabee spent twenty minutes taking questions from reporters with every major news organization in the country. Then, Huckabee merited the attention of a single public relations consultant. Today, former Arkansas Senator Tim Hutchison, Minuteman Project founder Jim Gilchrist, campaign manager Chip Saltsman and top strategist Ed Rollins stood back to let the candidate speak.

Then, Huckabee's campaign merited little more than the occasional mention in his hometown paper. Today, Huckabee is leading the RCP Iowa Average by two points, ahead of Mitt Romney, who Huckabee asserts has outspent him by a factor of twenty in Iowa alone. In dueling rallies in this small college town, Huckabee even outdrew Rudy Giuliani, the closest thing the Republican field has to a celebrity candidate. Giuliani's appearance, just a block away from Huckabee's, packed a local deli, but the venue and the crowd were smaller.

Huckabee and Romney, locked in a bitter battle for the state's convention delegates, have spent the last several weeks going back and forth on charges of inconsistency over a number of issues. Today, Huckabee took the opportunity to take new shots, calling Romney's advertisements dishonest. "It's dishonest toward me, it's dishonest toward John McCain," Huckabee said. "That's really what, I think, this race comes down to, is the integrity and honesty with which we are approaching it."

Asked point blank whether Romney himself is dishonest, Huckabee toed the line. "He's being dishonest about my record and John McCain's, and Rudy Giuliani's, and I think he's certainly being dishonest about his own record." Romney has "spent millions and million of dollars," Huckabee continued. "I'm sure there's a feeling of frustration. You're not supposed to be behind when you're spending that kind of money."

Huckabee's new attacks on Romney came as the former Massachusetts chief executive opens an advertising campaign hitting McCain in New Hampshire. Romney began running advertisements against Huckabee as his lead in Iowa slipped, and eventually succumbed to Huckabee's meteoric rise. Hoping to head off similar results in New Hampshire, where McCain is surging, Romney started running new ads against the senator there.

That, said Rollins, pushed Huckabee over the edge. "He saw the ad against McCain, and he said, 'This is ridiculous. You can't attack an American hero.'" Rollins said there had been no contact between the two campaigns.

Like Huckabee, McCain has fought back. After leaking a possible attack ad to Slate, McCain launched a hit on Romney yesterday in New Hampshire. Today, he was even more blunt when asked to respond to Romney's latest charges. "Never get into a wrestling match with a pig," McCain told reporters aboard the Straight Talk Express. "You both get dirty, and the pig likes it."

Back in Indianola, the media horde and jam-packed crowd told of Huckabee's newfound status as a top contender. Outside, Huckabee's bus idled next to a bus for traveling reporters. By the curb, CSPAN's traveling bus waited for a live interview with the candidate, and a bus for FairTax supporters, a key component of Huckabee's rise, sat at the end of the block. Voters, too, were excited. "I like any Republican who has values that will stick to them," said Michelle Steen, who publishes a Christian newspaper in Indianola. "We have a big Huckabee sign by our driveway on the highway."

Romney had few fans among the mostly older crowd. Asked if she would consider supporting Romney, Patricia Fetters, Steen's mother, said no. "I wouldn't be interested," she said. Pressed for a reason, she laughed. "I hate to say. If you weren't taping me," she trailed off. Her daughter was less circumspect. "I do question Mormonism," Steen said.

For others, it was Romney's perceived changes of heart that concerned them. "I guess I'm just not comfortable with him as far as his changes of his positions in the past," said Greg Abbott. "I mean, people can change, but I'm not exactly comfortable with how he's come about that."

All is not lost for Romney yet, however, largely because, to many voters, Huckabee has not locked in their support. Abbott, who said he is concerned that Huckabee's experience in foreign policy may be lacking. "As a governor, that'd probably be a weaker area, at least an area he has not thought about a lot." Despite the Huckabee sticker on his shirt, Abbott is also considering casting a vote for Fred Thompson.

Fetters says she's heard good things about Duncan Hunter, though Steen, who said she liked former candidate Tom Tancredo, is more in Huckabee's corner. "Huckabee is my choice right now," Steen said. "But I still will keep listening. I'm not, you know, set in stone."

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

WEST DES MOINES -- Caucus day is Thursday. Until then, no rest for the weary or the wicked. Here's what Iowans are waking up to this morning:

-- Today On The Trail: Rudy Giuliani holds events in Clive, Indianola and Mount Pleasant, while Mitt Romney stops in Newton, Pella, Oskaloosa, Ottumwa and Burlington. Mike Huckabee visits Indianola and Perry, while Fred Thompson starts in Burlington, then hits Washington, Williamsburg, Montezuma and Newton. John McCain is staying in New Hampshire for now, with events in Merrimack, Bedford and Londonderry

-- On the Democratic side, John Edwards leads roundtables discussion in Muscatine, Washington and Knoxville before rallying with wife Elizabeth in Des Moines. Hillary Clinton is in Eldridge, Clinton, Maquoketa, Dubuque and Manchester, Iowa. Barack Obama hits Fort Madison, Keokuk, Mount Pleasant and Ottumwa, while Bill Richardson delivers another foreign policy speech in Iowa.

-- The Republican race has, for the moment, boiled down to three candidates and two story lines. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are feuding bitterly in Iowa, while John McCain and Mitt Romney are fighting like children in New Hampshire. Romney is attacking both candidates, though for very different reasons: In Iowa, Romney trails, and his team thinks Huckabee has peaked, write Dan Balz and Michael Shear. In New Hampshire, Romney leads, though he's seeing that lead slip as McCain's momentum continues.

-- Both Huckabee and McCain aren't taking things lying down; McCain leaked an anti-Romney spot yesterday before releasing a real one to New Hampshire television stations, while Huckabee is considering another round of push-back in Iowa. Questions all around: Does Huckabee have the money to go toe-to-toe with Romney? Can McCain continue his upward climb? And can Romney survive fighting wars on two fronts?

-- Another question the feudin' and the fussin' brings up: What happened to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson? The two, who sat together atop national polls for months, are being virtually ignored. Thompson's bus tour, which no one can call lazy, is keeping the candidate out of the fray, which may be a good thing if at least a few Iowans decide they don't like the Huckabee-Romney fight. Giuliani, who never made a serious effort in Iowa, is making just a day and a half swing through the state before bolting for New Hampshire. Questions for both candidates: Can Thompson become the nice guy to choose over the bullies? Can Giuliani survive without oxygen until Michigan or Florida, where he might again be in the top two?

-- Another fascinating subplot: With Romney and Huckabee so far ahead of the rest of the field -- the latest RCP Iowa Average has a 15.3 point gap between second-place Romney and third-place Thompson -- the real fight is for third place. Thompson barely leads McCain for the show position, with Giuliani a little farther out. The implications for both men are great: Thompson has said he needs to finish third in Iowa, and McCain's prospects of winning New Hampshire could receive a substantial boost if he posts a better than expected third in Iowa.

-- For Democrats, the race seems to boil down to three candidates -- no surprise there -- but if anyone says they know who will finish first, second and third in Iowa, they're probably pulling your leg. One certainty: Obama and Edwards do not like Clinton, and the two are getting more irritated that the other one is in the race. This week, Obama spent serious time taking shots at Edwards for his perceived relationships with independent 527 groups, while Edwards called an Obama adviser's comments on the death of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto "ridiculous" and said his rival was in "never-never land," in an interview with ABC's Jake Tapper.

-- Obama strategist David Axelrod's comments, which seemed to link Clinton to Bhutto's death, was a slip-up that had to be walked back. Yesterday, the candidate himself goofed. "It's that experience, that understanding, not just of what world leaders I went and talked to in the ambassador's house I had tea with, but understanding the lives of the people like my grandmother who lives in a tiny hut in Africa," Obama said in Coralville, the New York Times reports. Some thought the comment was sexist, though Clinton surrogate Madeleine Albright didn't play that card: "Senator Clinton has been in refugee camps, clinics, orphanages, and villages all around the world, including places where tea is not the usual drink," she said.

-- Obama's response to the kerfluffle: "They must really be on edge." That statement can, and should, apply to every campaign here over the next few days. Everyone has tons to gain, or lose, in Iowa. For Edwards, a win breathes needed life into his campaign, while a loss spells the beginning of the end of his road. For Obama, a win probably gives him a victory in New Hampshire, and the snowball begins there, while a loss could cost him the Granite State. For Clinton, a win earns a big bounce, as many thought they saw the state slip away from her earlier this month, while a loss costs her the invincible aura she once enjoyed. Everyone, understandably, should be on edge.

-- To get the win, Edwards has to convince people that he is the real change candidate by proving Obama unready to carry the mantle. Obama has to fend off Edwards while standing tall as the Anybody-But-Clinton candidate. And Clinton, while she has more time in which to do so, has to blow out someone, somewhere, and show that she's inevitable once again.

-- Buried Story Of The Day: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will announce the state's new Senator on Monday, the Mississippi Press reports, filling a vacancy left by Trent Lott, who retired earlier this month. One candidate who will definitely not get the job: Outgoing Rep. Chip Pickering, who said yesterday he asked Barbour to remove his name from consideration. The announcements, the Jackson Clarion-Ledger reports, will be held in Jackson and Gulfport. Rep. Roger Wicker leads the speculation game, but other candidates have buzz as well, including Treasurer Tate Reeves.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

DES MOINES -- Members of the media have long complained at Hillary Clinton's unwillingness to answer their questions. Now, Clinton is curtailing the questions she takes from Iowa audiences as well. Top Of The Ticket reports Clinton has not taken questions during campaign stops for the last two days, from either the media or potential caucus-goers.

In response, John Edwards today launched "Ask John," a new program in which Iowa voters can call or email the campaign and receive a response auspiciously from the candidate. Elizabeth Edwards and top campaign aides will also answer questions Iowa voters have.

Edwards is the only Democratic candidate to have visited, and, says his campaign, answered questions in, all of Iowa's 99 counties. His current bus tour will hit 38 counties. The campaign promises to answer each questioner, in some form or another, by caucus night.

Iowa and New Hampshire voters are both notoriously prideful of their unique access to candidates. Whether their hackles are raised by Clinton's refusal to answer questions could determine the flow of the next week. To be fair, not every candidate answers questions at every event. Barack Obama did not take questions yesterday as he debuted his new stump speech in Des Moines.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

NBC Political Director Chuck Todd on Sunday put into words what every political junkie has thought for months. "We've all got what we want for Christmas," he said on Meet The Press. "It's this race."

A year in to the widest open, most covered and most fascinating presidential race in a generation, and just a week before the first votes are cast, eight candidates have at least some legitimate chance at winning their party's nominations. None are in their positions by accident.

In the fight for the Republican nomination, there have arguably been four front-running candidates. The strategies that have worked -- and those that haven't -- have made for a fluid race in which, even at this late date, many have concluded there is no front-runner at all. Recently, we examined the top moments in the Democratic race. Today we take a look at the five moments in 2005 that most changed the GOP race:

5. November 5 and December 11 -- Ron Paul raises $4 million and $6 million in individual days. The important thing to remember: Ron Paul will not win the Republican presidential nomination. His campaign does not have the organizational strength, and his message is simply not suited for a Republican primary electorate that, largely, still supports the war in Iraq and President Bush.

But $10 million in two days is astounding, and Paul's message clearly resonates with many more than the 50,000 or so who gave as part of the "money bomb."

Howard Dean, fighting against the Washington Democratic establishment and arguing that he represented the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, gave rise to Barack Obama's outsider message that is now working so well. Paul's financial success will probably not lead to electoral success for the same reason: Like Dean, Paul is the wrong messenger.

If another, younger, more telegenic libertarian Republican comes along in the future, claiming to represent the Republican wing of the Republican Party, he or she might help redefine the GOP for a generation. Paul's success will not change the 2008 Republican Presidential contest, but four, eight, even twenty years down the line, someone may point to Guy Fawkes Day and the anniversary of the Boston Tea Party as days that shifted the way Republicans think about themselves.

4. August 11 -- Mike Huckabee finishes second at the Iowa Straw Poll. Huckabee spent next to nothing to compete at Iowa State University in Ames, relying instead on a network of home-school advocates and FairTax backers, as well as a substantial number of voters who must have taken tickets from other candidates who invested more in the event.

His second-place finish had two effects that rocked the GOP race: It effectively knocked Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback from the race, giving social conservatives just one candidate around whom to coalesce. And it gave Huckabee another media boomlet, on which his campaign finally capitalized. Huckabee's strong showing at the straw poll was not the apex of his drive toward the top of the Iowa polls, where he now resides; it was the first push that got Huckmentum rolling as far as it has gone.

One might also argue that back-to-back decisions from Rudy Giuliani and John McCain not to compete in the event -- in fact, both have barely made an effort in Iowa at all -- opened the door for Huckabee to sneak in. Both Giuliani and McCain, at that time national front-runners trailing Mitt Romney in the first caucus state, were afraid of being seen as losing. By not busing in their own supporters, each left the door open for Huckabee to score a victory that arguably led to his position as a front-runner today.

3. September 5 -- Thompson announces on Leno. After months of preparing a run for president in the messiest way possible, and as other Republican candidates debated in New Hampshire, Fred Thompson showed why he has never been nominated for any sort of acting award and rarely takes a role with more than a few speaking lines. Announcing his candidacy on Jay Leno's Tonight Show, Thompson tried to appear presidential and run a campaign above the fray, above an increasingly nasty GOP scrum and at a level he and his campaign hoped could not be equaled by the others. Unfortunately for him, his GOP opponents were already looking past a dud of a campaign.

Looking back on this entire campaign, it is hard to imagine a faster rise and fall than that of Thompson. Once the savior of conservatives everywhere, who were without a candidate to rally around, Thompson ran a campaign so ham-handed that he has become almost a non-factor in the GOP side: A recent poll in New Hampshire had him tied with Duncan Hunter. Further, Thompson's entry caused many Republicans to take another look at the field. In the end, virtually every candidate except Thompson benefited from that closer look, most prominently Huckabee.

From constant turnover among top campaign aides, a less than stellar fundraising performance and debate appearances that even Arthur Branch would have panned, Thompson couldn't capitalize on the immense wellspring of good will that existed. His choosing to announce his campaign on Leno's couch showed the fatal strategy Thompson pursued: Run a different kind of campaign. That never works. Campaigns are run following a specific formula because that formula works, a formula to which the former senator never wanted to conform.

2. July 13 -- McCain campaign implodes. Once the national front-runner, with an aura of inevitability and a fundraising plan that assumed $100 million in the bank by the end of the year, John McCain's fortunes began to slip early. By the time Rudy Giuliani got in the race, a month into the year, he had overtaken the Arizona Senator as the national front-runners. And, to be blunt, McCain has never been a good fundraiser.

Still, the campaign did not recognize its financial short-comings and wound up having to drastically alter the game plan. Many senior staffers, including campaign manager Terry Nelson and long-time strategist John Weaver, parted ways.

If John McCain loses the Republican nomination, his campaign plan, drastically different from that of his 2000 insurgent race, could take the blame: Why take a candidate who is best running from behind and try to make him the inevitable nominee? But if McCain wins, which he very well could do, he can point to what can only be described as an implosion -- early speculation was that he would drop out in July or August -- as the impetus for a major retooling that worked.

McCain had a winning early strategy in 2000, derailed only in South Carolina. The only improvements he may have needed to make were in South Carolina, a state with thousands of veterans who would happily vote for a war hero in a Republican primary. The implosion, in short, let McCain be McCain, which is the only way he can win.

1. December 6 -- Romney delivers "The Speech" at Texas A&M. No one on the Republican side had a worse November than Mitt Romney. His Iowa poll numbers, once seemingly insurmountable, began to slowly receed as Huckabee's increased. Some social conservatives more openly questioned his conversions, on issues of abortion and gay rights, while asserting that his Mormon faith was all but a deal-breaker. Romney decided to risk a speech explaining the role of faith in America, an answer to John Kennedy's famous speech defending his Catholicism in 1960.

The moment presented risks: Romney very well might have said something to irritate and alienate his remaining evangelical backers. Instead, he delivered a reasoned yet impassioned speech that won praise from many corners while only mentioning the word "Mormon" once. Since then, his poll numbers have inched up, the slide seems to have abated and Romney's fortunes seem headed north. Romney may not win the nomination, but the speech at President George H.W. Bush's library in College Station stopped the death spiral and gave Romney a fighting chance.

Bonus: December 19 -- Rudy Giuliani checks into the hospital. The former New York City mayor is not the paragon of health. A cancer scare kept him out of the 2000 Senate race, and the flu-like symptoms and self-described worst headache he had ever experienced might renew questions about Giuliani's well being. His campaign was not forthcoming about the incident, and Giuliani's doctor will not be made available to the media until after Christmas. If Giuliani is not the GOP nominee, might pundits look back on a day in the hospital just three weeks before the New Hampshire primary as a turning point in the campaign?

The GOP race has entered the final sprint, in which the term "race" actually starts to mean something. Pundits and historians will look back at 2007 as the year in which the contest was decided. The eventual winner -- and anyone's guess is good at this point -- will have benefited in some way from the make-or-break moments above. He who capitalizes most will be standing at the end of the day.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

DES MOINES -- Three leading evangelicals this morning held a conference call with pastors from around Iowa urging them to help turn their congregants out for the caucuses, Marc Ambinder reports. Tim LaHaye, author of the popular "Left Behind" series, Rick Scarborough and Michael Farris, a top advocate of home schooling, spoke with participants under the auspices of the US Pastor Council and Vision America.

The three are urging pastors to make sure their flocks are involved, though they cannot legally advocate on behalf of a candidate. Still, all three are backing Mike Huckabee, and their message is clear. "Pastors, we have a solemn duty to assure that our congregants are informed and then participate in this vital act of civic ministry through the caucuses," an email inviting pastors to call in reads.

With significantly fewer resources than Mitt Romney and other leading Republicans, Huckabee has to rely on surrogates to help boost turnout, a crucial component of any Iowa campaign. Pastors around the state have been key in Huckabee's rise in recent polls, and his continued strong performance rests largely on their efforts.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

DES MOINES -- In a speech today, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will again play the experience card, arguing he is the candidate best prepared to lead. "I have learned that people are often sustained and moved by little more than an unshakable belief" in the ideals of democracy, Richardson plans to say, per prepared remarks.

Asserting that the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is a challenge put directly to the United States, Richardson will pledge to restore the country's standing in the world while urging a fundamental shift in foreign policy. "America must always lead in the name of freedom, and we should never allow our nation to perpetuate dictatorships or provide support to tyrants to oppress their people," he will say.

"Yesterday, I called for President [Pervez] Musharraf to step down. Today, as a nation, I am calling on the administration to stand firm for our ideals in the face of terrorism and in respect for the ideals Bhutto stood for. Anything less would send a dangerous signal to the world that terrorism alters our resolve," Richardson says in prepared remarks. In response to Bhutto's assassination, Richardson calls for a halt to all non-terrorism related military aide to Pakistan until Musharraf steps down and a technocratic government is in place.

The call for Musharraf's resignation provoked strong reaction from two Democratic opponents, Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, both of whom serve on the Foreign Relations Committee. They maintain "misplaced faith" in the Pakistani leader, Richardson plans to charge. "Like the Bush administration, they cling to a misguided notion that Musharraf can be trusted as an ally to fight terrorism or to change his despotic ways."

Richardson has tacked continually to the left in recent weeks, most notably on the war in Iraq. Today, his remarks could continue to help him among those who have been anti-war from the start. "Make no mistake. This administration is losing the war on terrorism," he will say, giving the most anti-war voters real red meat. "Bush's foreign policy has failed, but not for lack of opportunity to make it better."

The tones Richardson strikes, of restoring America's standing and remaining above the fray, are similar to those laid out by other candidates. Still, as a former UN ambassador with myriad stories of hostages rescued, bodies of American servicemen returned and tense negotiations around the world, Richardson should be able to more credibly make the argument than other candidates.

"We cannot afford another president who is a foreign policy novice. We cannot afford another president who takes the easiest path, rather than the right path; a president who makes wrong choices because he doesn't know how to make the hard, but right, choices," he will say. Richardson stands at just 6% in the latest RCP Iowa Average.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink