Undecideds Win Big In SC Poll
South Carolinians, it seems, just can't make up their minds. A new poll out of Clemson University shows nearly half the Democratic electorate and a sizable portion of the GOP electorate remains undecided little more than a month and a half before they head to the polls. "As the election itself draws closer, voters are taking their responsibilities more seriously, and respondents are less likely to make a casual selection when queried about who they are likely to support in the January vote," Clemson professors David Woodard and Bruce Ransom write.
The survey, conducted 11/14-27 with four days off for Thanksgiving and included 450 people from both parties, for a margin of error of +/- 4.62%.
Republicans
Romney 17 (+6 from last poll, 8/07)
Thompson 15 (-4)
Huckabee 13 (+7)
McCain 11 (-4)
Giuliani 9 (-9)
Paul 6 (+5)
Undecided 28 (+8)
Romney leads the latest RCP South Carolina Average by 4 points, edging out Giuliani.
Democrats
Clinton 19 (-7)
Obama 17 (+1)
Edwards 12 (+2)
Undecided 49 (+14)
Clinton still leads the latest RCP South Carolina Average by a wide margin, beating Obama by 12 points, though recent polls do show the race narrowing.
How to analyze this poll? Undecided voters break late, but half the Democratic electorate and a quarter of the GOP side makes us wonder how hard respondents were pushed to choose a candidate. Still, that may be telling: If Hillary Clinton has a big lead but only when leaners are included, that's great news for Obama, Edwards and others.
On the GOP side, those whisper campaigns against Giuliani may be working, but Romney's lead -- and impressive improvement -- suggests a state where many thought he would meet his demise may end up helping him after all. A win in South Carolina for the Mormon candidate, and suddenly the South is open to someone other than Fred Thompson. Interesting, too, to note that Romney's and Huckabee's rises come at the expense of three more established candidates Thompson, Giuliani and McCain.
But don't take this poll to the bank just yet. We'll wait for the next one to see if Romney still leads, and if Giuliani's fall is that dramatic.


