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« Kean Not Running | Blog Home Page | Morning Thoughts: Obi's One »

Obama Leads In Iowa

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll that's sure to shake up the Democratic race shows Barack Obama has taken his first lead in months in Iowa. The poll, conducted 11/14-18 of 500 likely Democratic caucus attendees, carried a 4.5% margin of error.

Obama led in the last ABC/Post poll, taken in late July, but the results will certainly be a boost to his campaign. We can envision the fundraising email David Plouffe is typing up right now.

Primary Election Matchup
Obama 30 (+3 from last poll, 7/31)
Clinton 26 (nc)
Edwards 22 (-4)
Richardson 11 (nc)
Biden 4 (+2)

Clinton still leads in the RCP Iowa Average, but by a narrow 2.4 points.

Among those certain to attend, Obama holds 28% of the vote, ahead of Clinton's 26% and Edwards' 23%. Edwards performs better among those who have attended a caucus before, taking 26%, one point behind Obama's 27% and ahead of Clinton's 21%. Obama also leads among those who will attend for the first time, leading 35% to Clinton's 34% and Edwards' 14%.

Liberals and Democrats are split, giving 32% each and 28% each, respectively, to Clinton and Obama. But Obama's margin comes among independents, where he holds a 35% to 18% lead, and among self-described moderates, with whom he leads 29%-19%.

Importantly, Obama also leads among second choice candidates, and Edwards' performance in the category is strong enough to inch him ahead of Clinton when first and second choices are combined.

Second Choice
Obama 26 (nc from 7/31)
Edwards 24 (+1)
Clinton 19 (-4)
Richardson 13 (+1)
Biden 6 (+2)

First/Second Choice Combined
Obama 55 (+4 from 7/31)
Edwards 45 (-3)
Clinton 44 (-4)
Richardson 23 (+1)
Biden 10 (+5)

Democrats say the Iraq war remains their top issue, with 33% choosing it as number one and 23% picking it second. Health care remains important as well, with 26% picking it first and 24% marking it as the backup. The economy came in third, as 21% chose it either first or second.