Morning Thoughts: Obi's One
Good morning. With members of Congress gone for the holiday and staffers heading to Iowa and New Hampshire, Washington just feels so empty. All there is left is President Bush's annual pardon of the Thanksgiving turkey, today at 10:15am. Aside from the president being soft on turkey crime, here's what the few survivors are watching today:
-- We wrote yesterday on the new ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by the narrowest of margins in Iowa. A July ABC/Post poll showed Obama ahead as well, but this poll is the first since a Newsweek survey in late September showed Obama leading. The cross-tabs shed light on why Obama may be ahead: Of the one-third in the poll who had met a candidate, more than half met Obama, as Ben Smith points out. Edwards has met 38% of that subsample to Clinton's 36% and 22% for Bill Richardson. So remember: Take every poll with a grain of salt. Stu Rothenberg does.
-- Edwards' fall to third place can be traced, some have argued, to a lack of enthusiasm from labor groups. While labor was divided in 2004, Edwards had hoped his populism would rally workers to his cause. He's only been moderately successful, as the Wall Street Journal finds labor divided up to four ways. Like Christian conservatives, whose backing is split among many Republican contenders, by dividing their attentions, labor also cuts their influence. And, says the Journal, that means caucus results may be less than decisive, meaning a prolonged Democratic nomination fight.
-- Obama and Clinton are switching to a new topic on which they can argue over who is most experienced: The economy. "More than ever before, workers will need good job training for the jobs of this new century, but there is one job we can't afford on-the-job training for: That is the job of our next president. That could be the costliest job training in history," Clinton said, per ABC News, repeating "job" an astounding six times in three sentences. Obama's countercharge: Clinton "wasn't Treasury Secretary," and she should show her experience. Clinton's economic focus had to do with statistics and rising heating costs; Obama wants to lower costs of community colleges, per the New York Times. A focus on working-class issues is a great way to pick up some of those union members who haven't fallen in line with their local yet.
-- It's okay to be an hour late if your plane, say, lands at the wrong airport (Paging Mr. Obama...). But if you show up an hour late to a campaign event for no good reason, you'd better offer a pretty good excuse to Iowa voters. Edwards' recent excuse, per a spokesman: "He just had some stuff going on." The Des Moines Register, which devotes an article to Edwards' constant tardiness, says the candidate is late frequently, and offers this zinger, from Davenport high school sophomore Porsha McElfresh, who waited an hour for Edwards: "There's a lot of kids here who probably don't care about their education, but they should be in class instead of sitting here wasting time."
-- Over the weekend, in that same Bob Novak column that stirred up so many passions in the Democratic field, a report emerged, though it was hardly surprising, that John McCain is considering pulling out of Iowa to focus on New Hampshire. Today, Andrew Malcolm of the LA Times writes that a Fred Thompson fundraising pitch urges supporters to help him buy television ads in Iowa and South Carolina, conveniently omitting New Hampshire, a state which Thompson has largely avoided and therefore seen his poll numbers plummet. A CNN poll of Granite State voters showed even Ron Paul doubling Thompson's score there.
-- Is Thompson preparing a new Southern Strategy? In this version, it would seem, Thompson is focusing his efforts entirely on states south of the Mason-Dixon line, save Iowa. NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy, on the trail with Thompson in the voter-rich town of Kenner, Louisiana, reports Thompson's "feeling" that the state will be important in the election. Louisiana's primary is February 9, four days after Super Duper Tuesday. Don't believe he's looking Soutward? In the last week, the candidate has shown up in Mississippi, Pensacola, The Citadel and Myrtle Beach, along with one day in Iowa.
-- A Southern strategy would be predicated on Thompson casting himself as more conservative than other candidates. That may be good for a primary, and it was once good for a general election too, but some see the Congressional GOP heading to the right as well. Eight of the 17 members who have announced their retirements are moderates, Politico writes, and the loss of what former moderate Rep. Sherwood Boehlert terms the "vital center" will hurt the party's chances of retaking the majority. Moderate Virginia Rep. Tom Davis (R-Orange Line) offers the spot-on assessment: "The money has moved away from the parties, who used to be the enforcement mechanisms, to groups on the extreme right and left, and it's killing us," he said.
-- Finally, in a vote that will have ramifications stretching far into the future, the Federal Elections Commission will vote today on a rule interpreting the Supreme Court's decision in a key campaign finance case, The Hill reports. The case, in which the Court ruled that corporations and unions could pay for ads within a 60-day window the FEC had banned, has led to new rules that top election lawyers on both sides say are confusing and will be difficult to enforce. Reform groups contend the new proposal is more than the Court wanted, and would essentially defang the campaign finance reform act's communications provision, opening the door to new attack ads within days of an election.
-- Endorsement Of The Day: Speaking to DCCC backers at a breakfast fundraiser yesterday in Manhattan, former DCCC chairman Rahm Emanuel said he thinks Mike Huckabee would be a smart campaign choice, per the New York Daily News. Emanuel says choosing Huckabee would work well for either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani, both of whom would need to shore up their base. Perhaps more importantly, Emanuel again reiterated that Democrats should watch out on immigration, as the issue is becoming what he calls the "third rail" of American politics.
-- Today On The Trail: Clinton is in Shenandoah, Creston and Des Moines, Iowa. Edwards holds community meetings, still with Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne, in Grinnell and Des Moines. Obama delivers a policy speech in Manchester, then holds other events in Alton, North Conway and Laconia. Bill Richardson holds town halls in Nashua and Derry, then meets with voters in Merrimack. Joe Biden has a press conference scheduled in Iowa City, and Dennis Kucinich will stop by Concord for a book signing and a town hall.
-- On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee fundraises in Florida and takes reporter questions beforehand. Mitt Romney gives a speech in Des Moines, then heads to Newton for a forum. Fred Thompson meets voters at a coffee shop in Orange City, a bar in Le Mars and a ballroom in Sioux City, Iowa, while Giuliani has a press conference in Chicago before meeting with locals in Oak Park, Illinois. And Ron Paul is in Nevada, where a rally yesterday drew 1,000 people in Las Vegas. Today he heads to Reno for a rally at University of Nevada.



