Gardner Sets Primary Date
After some final puzzle pieces fell in place, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner announced in Concord today his state would hold its first-in-the-nation primary on January 8. The move will allow the state to maintain its prominence in the presidential nominating contest while allowing candidates just five days to campaign after the lead-off Iowa caucuses.
Holding the primary on January 8 allows Gardner to comply with New Hampshire law, which requires the contest to occur seven days before any similar primary. But with only five days between Iowa and New Hampshire, a strong performance in the Hawkeye State becomes even more important. "If you don't do well in Iowa, I don't think [five days is] enough time to recover," said independent election analyst Rhodes Cook.
Cook pointed out that, after former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's infamous "scream" and poor showing in Iowa, the candidate had eight days during which to recover. After getting his sea legs again, Dean finished a respectable second, at 26% to John Kerry's 38%. The results were cast as a blow to Dean, who had led by a wide margin in opinion polls, but he still earned 9 of the state's 22 allocated convention delegates. Given less time to recover, a candidate's stumble could be heightened in 2008.
On the other hand, a candidate who outperforms could benefit from a significant boost because of the fast turnaround. "The results of Iowa are still hanging overhead" after five days, Cook said. "If you do very well, it may be to your advantage to have a quick vote in New Hampshire." But don't count on the state simply ratifying Iowa's decision. "There is a contrarian streak in New Hampshire that has to be taken into account a little bit," says Cook. "It has the motto 'Live Free or Die' for a reason. It wants to show it's a bit different than Iowa."
The eclectic Gardner, who maintains sole discretion over when the primary will be held, kept his deliberations close to the vest for months. In countless media interviews, Gardner refused to be backed into a corner. He went as far as openly speculating that, because of pressure from Michigan and other states moving their contests earlier, he would have to schedule the primary in December of this year.
Press accounts paint a picture of Gardner as single-mindedly dedicated to saving his state's prominent first primary. A Democrat who has been appointed Secretary of State by governors of both parties, Gardner seemed to relish the suspense he created in the presidential field. That suspense came down to the wire, as Gardner did not inform campaigns of his decision, and, after scheduling a 3:30 press conference, made media members wait more than 45 minutes before making the date official.
The announcement came the same day the Michigan Supreme Court ruled their state can hold its primary on January 15. The state legislature had set that date for the primary, but two lower courts ruled the measure unconstitutional. Michigan's high court overturned those decisions earlier today, in a narrow 4-3 decision, and will allow the contests to go forward.
The late hour of the court's decision, though, could cause Michigan headaches. Election officials are worried that the decision has come too late for absentee ballots to be printed and sent out.



