VIENNA, VIRGINIA -- Two campaign workers are being held hostage at Sen. Hillary Clinton's Rochester, New Hampshire campaign headquarters by a man with a bomb strapped to his chest, WMUR TV reports. The office is surrounded by police, who are negotiating with a suspect.

Clinton, in the Washington area to address the Democratic National Committee's winter meetings, has canceled her speech. Barack Obama's campaign also has an office in Rochester. It too has been evacuated, WMUR said.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

What if the big issue Democrats are counting on to bring them a bigger majority in 2008 isn't there? It's becoming a very real concern, as more members of the new majority are returning from Iraq with the opinion that something might just be working.

We reported this morning on Rep. John Murtha's comments, a sentiment that is sure to cause Speaker Nancy Pelosi some heartburn. Murtha's office released a clarification this morning, arguing that the surce "has created a window of opportunity for the Iraqi Government." But such a prominent war opponent saying positive things is going to lead a few papers tomorrow.

Murtha is not alone; several months ago, Rep. Brian Baird, a Washington State Democrat, came to the same conclusion. Baird headed home to his district, which stretches from Olympia to the Oregon border, to face angry crowds at town hall meetings, and he heard calls for his head from the liberal blogosphere.

Baird's neighbor, Rep. Norm Dicks, agrees with him, according to an interview with the Seattle Times. Dicks is also vice chair of Murtha's Defense Appropriations subcommittee.

Democrats are aware that shifting opinions could hurt their chances next year. In fact, some say the issue is fading from voters' minds, as the Politico writes today. The voting public still trusts Democrats on most issues much more than they do Republicans. But without Iraq as a top issue, and without homogeny of opinion on ending the war, Democrats are losing what might have been an issue potent enough to take back a dozen or more seats.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Looking for the perfect holiday gift for the political junkie in your life? Look no farther than the Almanac of American Politics, an 1800-page compendium of the national political landscape.

The editor, Charlie Mahtesian, is something of a mentor to Politics Nation, and because he just put together such a comprehensive look at the national political landscape, he knows more about every race around the country than virtually anyone out there.

Check out our extended sit-down interview with Mahtesian, in which he points to some of the freshman members of Congress who have the potential to lead their parties (Reps. Kevin McCarthy, R-CA, and Kathy Castor, D-FL), the hottest races to watch next year (Kansas' Nancy Boyda fighting for re-election, Washington and Missouri governors' races and some Senate Republicans who could be in trouble) and the lessons learned from 2006.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Happy Friday morning. Here's what Washington is watching today:

-- The House is off until Tuesday, but the Senate is enjoying its last vacation day before coming back on Monday. The DNC meets in Vienna to hear from the presidential contenders today, and President Bush participates in World AIDS Day events in Mount Airy, Maryland.

-- Righty blogs are going insane over this week's CNN/YouTube debate, but they're about to go ape over another story: Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha, whose transformation into a dove on the war merited massive news coverage and cult status among the liberal netroots, is just back from Iraq. Watch out, netroots: Murtha thinks there's progress in Iraq. "I think the surge is working," he told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The government remains dysfunctional, Murtha said, but he is encouraged by successes in Anbar province. Sit back and wait for conservative bloggers to jump all over this one.

-- Setting the media's tongues a-waggin', Barack Obama has already sat down with New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg over a cup of coffee this morning, Marc Ambinder reports. Hillary Clinton can't pick Bloomberg as a vice presidential nominee, given that the two are from the same state, but Mr. Obama of Illinois certainly can. Is Bloomberg's flirtation with everything presidential just ego or is it really some form of interest in a race? We doubt even Bloomberg aides know.

-- Obama's campaign is treading carefully around a PAC donation story that exploded this week, threatening to tarnish the candidate's goody two-shoes image on campaign finance reform. Now, John Solomon reports, Obama strategist Steve Hildebrand was consulted about donations the PAC was to make to politicians in early states, according to attorney Bob Bauer, who represents both the campaign and the PAC. Hildebrand worked for the PAC last year and is now Obama's deputy campaign manager. The mini-scandal isn't Watergate, but when a candidate sets him or herself up as above reproach, any reproach brings them back to earth hard and fast.

-- On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is undergoing some of the same scrutiny Obama faces. After a report from Politico's Ben Smith highlighting police bills paid by obscure New York agencies in order to protect Giuliani, the candidate has gone out of his way to push back. Giuliani called the report a "political hit job," though Politico chief John Harris points out the candidate has not disputed any major part of the story. The mayor's aides blamed faceless bureaucrats for any improper billing, Smith reports today, but why have the candidate himself get so worked up? Sensitivity to attack breeds suspicion. Oh, and the New York Times hits Rudy for flubbing statistics, a charge Mitt Romney and Democrats have made repeatedly.

-- Morning coverage of coffee with Obama and Bloomberg is bordering on obsessive on MSNBC, but the man of the moment is still Mike Huckabee (actually, this is his second or third moment by now, isn't it?). Huckabee heads to New Hampshire today to play guitar with a school band and work some of the magic he's used in Iowa. John DiStaso's headline says it all: "Iowa's 'hot ticket' headed here." How rare is it for New Hampshire voters to actually be excited to see a presidential candidate? Then again, maybe they just fear Chuck Norris. In all seriousness, few think Huckabee can do well anywhere beyond Iowa. If he catches fire in the Granite State, his stock could rise very quickly.

-- No one likes Mitt Romney. We're not talking about voters, plenty of them like him. But other candidates aim their shots at Romney all the time, and even the Log Cabin Republicans are going after him. The group has ads on television hitting Romney, and in the run-up to New Hampshire, where Romney still has a big lead, they're on radio, NBC/NJ's Erin McPike reports. Why go after someone who's not terribly vitriolic about gays? LCR thinks Romney's conversion to an anti-gay rights position does their cause more harm than nominating someone who's always been anti-gay. Romney picked up a big endorsement yesterday, winning over David Keene of the American Conservative Union, but his enemies are by no means staying silent.

-- Head-Scratcher Of The Day: The NRCC is spending a reasonable amount of money to defend open seats in Ohio and Virginia, both of which are up in special elections. The race to replace the late Rep. Paul Gillmor, in Ohio, is taking place in a district that voted for President Bush by 21 points, and the NRCC has cut an ad and funded a poll, to the tune of about $11,000. In Virginia's First District, the NRCC has spent about $39,000 to hold the seat of the late Rep. Jo Ann Davis. The committee is seriously in the hole financially, and Democrats aren't making a huge play for either seat. So why spend the money? Do Republicans worry about a closer than expected contest that only fans the "GOP dead in the water" stories?

-- Today On The Trail: Mitt Romney holds meetings in Cedar Rapids and Dubuque while Rudy GIuliani campaigns in Okatie, South Carolina and Boca Raton. Mike Huckabee gives a speech in Concord then plays guitar with the Tilton school rock band before meeting voters in Bow. Tom Tancredo is in New Hampshire, while Duncan Hunter is in South Carolina, and Fred Thompson, along with wife Jeri, will appear on Larry King Live. John McCain campaigns in North Myrtle Beach and Seabrook, South Carolina.

-- On the Democratic side, six candidates are in Vienna for the DNC meeting, while Obama gets his photo op with Bloomberg. Edwards and Chris Dodd attend the first annual Culver-Judge holiday party in West Des Moines tonight.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Most Democratic candidates are going where others tell them to for the next two days in some of the final cattle call candidate events of the year. The Democratic National Committee, meeting in Vienna, Virginia for the final time before their August convention, will hear from six of their candidates tomorrow.

On Saturday, candidates head to Des Moines for the Heartland Presidential Forum, held by Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement and other local groups. Organizers expect up to 5,000 attendees at the HyVee Hall in downtown Des Moines for the event.

Candidates are unlikely to make significant news at the events, but previous years' DNC meetings have helped, and any chance a candidate gets to address 5,000 Iowans is a huge opportunity. Plus, in Vienna, Democrats will have a chance to say hello to an important part of their 2008 strategy: One session is being keynoted by Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter, who will host the August convention and who Democrats hope can deliver his increasingly purple state to their party.

While candidates are out in Iowa, a DNC panel is expected to formally strip Michigan of its convention delegates when they meet early Saturday morning. Politics Nation, which is completely obsessed with the calendar crisis, will be there both days to bring you the news as it happens, even as it means waking up for an 8:30 meeting on a Saturday.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 04:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

It's a rare day when Republicans get good news. Today, though, they scored big, as campaign committees on both sides of the Hill recruited strong candidates for next year.

In Louisiana, state Treasurer John Kennedy announced he will challenge incumbent Mary Landrieu for her Senate seat next year and released an initial benchmark poll showing him well ahead. Kennedy, a former Democrat, had been heavily wooed by NRSC chief John Ensign and former White House political guru Karl Rove, and with the results of the poll, it's no wonder he got in.

Conducted early last month, from 10/10-14, the survey contacted 1001 Louisianans for a margin of error of +/- 3.2 points. Zogby International made the calls on behalf of Kennedy's campaign.

General Election Matchup
Kennedy 45
Landrieu 38

Landrieu was forced into a run-off during her initial re-election bid five years ago, and many believe that Hurricane Katrina, which chased hundreds of thousands of residents from the state, dramatically reduced New Orleans' African American population. Landrieu's father was the popular mayor of New Orleans, and she has relied on the city as a base from which to launch her successful statewide campaigns. The loss of thousands of black voters hurts Landrieu's re-election chances.

Whether she can overcome a well-financed challenger depends heavily on Landrieu's ability to expand her base beyond traditional Democratic strongholds in the cities. Louisianans vote Democratic for state legislative seats in more rural areas, but those areas have not favored federal Democrats in the same proportion.

Senate Republicans did not win a single Democratic seat in 2006, and 2008 doesn't look much better. Louisiana presents them with a very rare opportunity, and it is likely that the party will do everything in its power to help Kennedy go after Landrieu. The NRSC lags sorely behind its Democratic counterpart in fundraising, but one has to expect a significant investment in Louisiana.

In other good recruiting news for the GOP, when House Republicans unexpectedly lost Rep. Mike Ferguson to retirement this month, the party scrambled to find a suitable replacement, and quickly. Ferguson's 2006 opponent, Assemblywoman Linda Stender, is raising money quickly, and after her closer-than-expected finish last year, Republicans needed to act quickly to find a replacement who could take her on.

The obvious choice: State Senator Tom Kean Jr., who last year lost a bid for Senate but maintained the financial ties and good will among the GOP base to mount a strong bid. In fact, his candidacy would likely have been greeted with front-runner status. Kean, though, was just elected Senate Republican Whip, and as quickly as his name was floated, he announced he wouldn't run. The candidate Kean said he would back also pulled out, leaving the GOP temporarily in the lurch.

Now, the party has recruited State Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance, whose Senate district covers part of the 7th Congressional. But Lance's path to the nomination isn't clear, and in a state with two prominent Republican dynasties, the other candidate hopes to trade on her family's good name to create a third. Kean's father served as governor before his son got into politics.

The next GOP governor, Christine Todd Whitman, apparently also passed on the political gene. Her daughter, businesswoman Kate Whitman, announced today that she will run against Lance for the right to face Stender in November. The younger Whitman gets a big boost with former RNC finance chief Lew Eisenberg on her finance committee, and though both Lance and Whitman would make good candidates, the GOP is clearly more excited about Whitman.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The scenic Eastern shore of Maryland has faced some of the biggest environmental challenges in the country, as centuries of pollution has flowed through the Chesapeake Bay. It is little wonder, then, that the congressman representing the district is one of the biggest environmentalists in Congress. It is somewhat more surprising that the congressman, Wayne Gilchrest, is a Republican.

First elected in 1990, Gilchrest represents a heavily Republican district that voted solidly for President Bush in 2000 and 2004. But Gilchrest is no traditional Republican; along with his environmental streak (he co-chairs the Congressional Climate Change Caucus), he is pro-choice and has backed campaign finance reform efforts. A member of the Republican Main Street Partnership and other moderate groups, Gilchrest has made a habit of trying to drag his party back to the middle.

That moderate record hasn't sat well with some in Gilchrest's district, and this year two strong candidates are trying to give the incumbent the boot. State Senators Andy Harris and E.J. Pipkin are both running, and, with the involvement of the Club for Growth on Harris' behalf and Pipkin's personal fortune, both will give Gilchrest a run for his money.

Pipkin, who joined the race this week, jumps into what has already become a nasty race. Both candidates have run negative ads already, with Gilchrest dumping about $200,000 into ads in the last half of November alone. Outside groups are playing a big role in the race as well: The Club has run ads backing Harris, while the League of Conservation Voters ran ads backing Gilchrest.

It is likely Pipkin, who was last heard from challenging Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski in 2004, will contribute heavily to his own race. He donated more than $1.6 million to his own campaign in that race, and because this year's primary takes place February 12, it is likely he will need to dip into his own bank account again for this year's race.

FEC filings show Gilchrest should already be worried about his financial condition. At the end of the third quarter, Gilchrest had raised $174,000 and had about $414,000 cash on hand. Harris had raked in an impressive $531,000 and retained around $400,000 in the bank.

Institutional Republican support has mostly flowed to Harris this year. The NRCC doesn't get involved in primaries, but chairman Tom Cole barely defended his incumbent in a meeting with reporters last month. Many local elected officials are backing Harris, including former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich, who held an October fundraiser for the challenger.

Gilchrest has survived other well-funded primary challenges. But Harris' impressive fundraising and Pipkin's entry are probably keeping Gilchrest's campaign team up at night. On the other hand, the district's voters know Gilchrest, and with both Pipkin and Harris in the race, Harris backers worry the anti-Gilchrest vote will be split. Getting another challenger could be the best thing that happens to Gilchrest all year.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Republican National Committee chairman Mike Duncan is not a popular guy in New Hampshire. Duncan backed national party rules that stripped the traditional first-in-the-nation primary state of half its delegates to the national convention for holding a delegate-allocating nominating contest before the approved February 5 window, meaning the state's delegation should be cut from 24 to 12.

But the eventual Republican nominee will have some say in the matter. Nominees will help states pick members of various committees at the conventions, and in order to keep New Hampshire or any other state on their side, it's likely the eventual candidate will help all five states Republicans sanctioned get their full delegate slates back.

Incriminating evidence that candidates plan to overturn the national party's decision: Republican presidential candidates filed their delegate slates with New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner this week, and each one submitted 21 delegates and alternates. The Mitt Romney campaign went farther, filing 24 of each (other campaigns perhaps recalled that three delegate slots will be reserved for party chairman Fergus Cullen and the state's two RNC members, John DiStaso points out). Cullen even says some candidates have told him they'll seat the full delegation.

Another example of both national parties' impotence when trying to control the primary calendar.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Former Illinois Congressman Henry Hyde has died at the age of 83, House Minority Leader John Boehner's office has reported. Hyde spent 32 years in Congress, rising to serve as chair of the House Judiciary and International Relations Committees before retiring last year. For his service, President Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom earlier this month.

A conservative who represented the western suburbs of Chicago, Hyde's career included creating the Millennium Challenge Corporation and the so-called Hyde Amendment, which limited federal funding for abortions. Never a lock-step Republican, he opposed the war in Iraq long before it turned unpopular, and he was an original sponsor of the Brady Bill and other gun control measures.

In his role as Judiciary chairman, Hyde was one of 13 impeachment managers who went before the Senate to argue for a conviction. Of those 13, just four are still in the House -- Reps. Jim Sensenbrenner, Steve Buyer, Steve Chabot and Chris Cannon. Sen. Lindsey Graham also served as a manager.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Congressman Don Young, the long-time sole representative from the Last Frontier, finds himself in some hot water, a new poll shows. Young has been connected to a scandal surrounding VECO Corp., which has led to prosecutions of several state legislators and an FBI raid of Sen. Ted Stevens' Alaska home.

The poll, conducted by Democratic firm Craciun Research Group for 2006 candidate Diane Benson, was conducted 10/27-11/2 among 601 registered voters. The margin of error Benson, Young and former House Democratic Leader Ethan Berkowitz, as well as State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, a Republican who is thinking of challenging Young in a primary.

The Democratic primary sample tested Benson, Berkowitz and former Alaska Democratic Party Chair Jake Metcalf. 292 voters who plan to participate in the Democratic primary were surveyed, for a margin of error of approximately +/- 5.7%.

Primary Election Matchup
Berkowitz 29
Benson 21
Metcalf 8

General Election Matchups
Berkowitz 50
Young 35

Benson 45
Young 37

Berkowitz 49
LeDoux 14

Benson 45
LeDoux 12

The incumbent faces a huge uphill battle, but Republicans don't have to despair yet. The status of the race seems familiar; early polls in 2006 showed former Gov. Tony Knowles handily defeating then-Gov. Frank Murkowski. But Knowles lost his comeback bid primarily because Murkowski wasn't his opponent. The scandal-plagued incumbent finished third in his own primary to Sarah Palin, who beat Knowles in November.

If Young is the nominee, Alaska Democrats have a real shot to take back the seat. If another Republican takes his place, the GOP is likely to have a better chance at holding on.

Something to consider as Young and Stevens face re-election next year: After Palin, a decided outsider, knocked off good ol' boy Murkowski, are Alaska voters ready for change regardless of party? The state is still heavily Republican, and the two remaining incumbents could face tough battles in their own primaries.

Murkowski's big problem was nepotism, a charge he endured after appointing his daughter to his old Senate seat. If Alaska Republicans wouldn't stand for that, will they really allow Young and Stevens, tainted by a corruption investigation, to continue as their nominees?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Good Thursday morning. Is Tony Romo the new Brett Favre? At 10-1, there's no reason for a new Favre; the old one works just fine. Check out Real Clear Sports for a rundown on tonight's Packers-Cowboys affair. Here in Washington, the top stories people are watching:

-- The Senate holds a pro forma session at 9:30 a.m., while the House is still on Thanksgiving break. President Bush today meets with President Elias Antonio Saca Gonzalez of El Salvador, then heads to the Pentagon to discuss long-term strategy with Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Deputy Gordon England, as well as Joint Chiefs chair Admiral Mike Mullen.

-- At last night's CNN/YouTube debate, virtually every pundit agrees Mike Huckabee came out ahead, as usual. It was Huckabee's first performance as a top-tier candidate, and, says Chuck Todd, instead of opening with a snappy one-liner, he came out of the gate sounding presidential. Unfortunately for him, the last Republican debate before the caucuses is December 12, giving Iowa voters a long time to be hammered with paid Romney ads that Huckabee just can't afford. But with debate performances that get tongues wagging like last night's, it's no wonder Huckabee's gaining steam.

-- A post-debate survey conducted by InsiderAdvantage, an experienced Southern polling firm, found Huckabee won among both Florida and Iowa Republicans. Surveying 341 undecided Floridians who had watched the debate immediately after its conclusion, the poll found 44% though Huckabee won. The others, in order: Giuliani, 18%. Romney, 13%. McCain, 10%. Thompson, 5%. Paul, 4%. One thing every pundit agrees on: It's time for Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter to vacate the stage. They each scored a paltry 1%.

-- The big loser last night: CNN, which allowed a question from a backer of Hillary Clinton. Righty bloggers were all over the network after a debate where the format practically begs for someone to dig deeper. Weekly Standard hit CNN hard, as well as the rest of the media for awarding the night to Huckabee, the "easy listening" candidate. Aside from the Clinton backer, though, others who saw their questions asked are also supporting other candidates. Michelle Malkin has evidence of an Edwards supporter and an Obama supporter who slipped through the screens.

-- In non-debate news, Rudy Giuliani spent tens of thousands of New York City taxpayer money on security during trips to the Hamptons with now-wife Judith Nathan, Politico's Ben Smith reports. The Mayor probably didn't bill little-known agencies to hide the expenses himself, but someone in his administration likely did, which might cause problems for Hizzoner. Is the issue going to stick around and combine with Bernie Kerik stories to give early state voters an image of Giuliani they don't like? Giuliani frequently reminds voters, even in his own television ads, that he's not perfect, but what if they start deducing that on their own? Giuliani advisor Tony Carbonetti told the Washington Post that he would investigate the charges.

-- The story brings up another point: Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama all have fairly tight security. The two Democrats are protected by the Secret Service even before they earn their party's nomination. The two Republicans have different arrangements. Yes, better safe than sorry, but at what point does an early state voter's access to candidates -- or lack thereof -- play into a decision to caucus or vote for the more accessible John Edwards or John McCain? McCain himself has eschewed security, saying he will refuse Secret Service protection as the GOP nominee.

-- They may need protection, but from each other. Fred Thompson launched the season's first negative ad last night, using past clips of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee to blast his rivals on abortion and taxes, respectively, as CNN's Mark Preston reports. The attacks were nothing Thompson hasn't said already, but putting those shots in an ad is a first for the GOP contest. Does the ad open the floodgates or set Thompson on course for nothing more than a negative campaign?

-- Speaking of attack ads, what happens when Democrats have to go after each other? The truth is, if Clinton and Obama have to go after each other, they're going to need some practice. Neither has come from behind to win a single campaign: Clinton won by wide margins in both her Senate races. After two wealthy opponents dropped out, Obama practically waltzed into his Senate seat. Obama even lost the one race in which he trailed, a primary bid against Rep. Bobby Rush. For each, running as the underdog is something new. But launching a few broadsides now and then, and defending against them, is good practice for what they'll face from a Republican.

-- Power Player Of The Day: Clinton heads to Lake Forest, California today to address an HIV/AIDS conference at the Saddleback Church, one of the country's largest mega-churches (an anniversary celebration required renting out the LA Angels' stadium so everyone could fit in at once). The church, headed by Rick Warren, author of The Purpose-Driven Life, has played a role in the race before: It was at the same conference a year ago that Barack Obama told Sam Brownback that "this is my house, too." If Democrats are to win any religious support in 2008, watch for it to come from Warren, who has made subtle overtures to the other side of the aisle. He's drawing fire for including Democrats from his fellow evangelicals, but he doesn't seem like the type to back down.

-- Today On The Trail: John McCain holds a press conference in St. Petersburg, while Fred Thompson holds one in Phoenix. Tom Tancredo is off to a house party in Merrimack while Duncan Hunter campaigns throughout South Carolina. On the Democratic side, Clinton speaks at the Saddleback Church in Lake Forest, California. John Edwards addresses the Iowa State Association of Counties in Des Moines, then heads to Iowa City to talk foreign policy. Barack Obama hits the Apollo Theater, Bill Richardson holds an event in New York and Joe Biden meets residents in Concord and Hampton, then speaks on Iraq in Portsmouth.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The Dow Jones Industrial Average today closed up more than 330 points. But the big news after the bell was that both the Dow and the S&P 500 put together back-to-back winning days for the first time this month -- 19 trading days into the month.

The economy, in short, is in bad shape. The markets are officially undergoing a correction, when shares fall more than 10%, for the first time since 2003. Oil prices hovered just under $100 a barrel earlier in the week, closing nearer to $90 a barrel in today's trading. And new numbers out from the Washington Post and ABC News show consumer attitudes are at a two-year low.

The latest WaPo/ABC Consumer Comfort Index sits at -21, the lowest point since October 2005. Asked to rate the state of the economy, two-thirds choose negative, and about the same percentage say it's a bad time to make purchases. That's terrible news for businesses heading into what is supposed to be the most expensive Christmas season ever.

The Federal Reserve meets December 11, and speculation on Wall Street is that another rate cut is in the offing. That's good for short-term gains, but will presidential candidates or Congress address the economy? How can they? Voters always say they consider economic issues; a recent Post/ABC poll showed more voters said the economy was one of their top two most important issues than any aside from the war in Iraq.

As consumers grow more pessimistic seemingly by the day, increasing urgency could make it a bigger issue than normal this year.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

One of the highlights of this reporter's life was running into The Rock at the 2000 Democratic National Convention in Los Angeles. Fortunately, the running into wasn't literal -- that would have qualified as a lowlight, one would assume. We only wish we had seen this next opportunity coming. If so, we would have been on the first flight to St. Petersburg for tonight's Republican debate.

That's right, none other than Chuck Norris will be in the spin room, stumping for his buddy Mike Huckabee. Politics Nation has never been a huge wrestling or martial arts fan (Full disclosure: Never seen a single "Walker, Texas Ranger" episode), but we would have loved the opportunity to ask some inane question on tax policy or voter outreach in Iowa, eliciting what would surely be a swift kick to the head.

On second thought, after we purchase a few Mitt Romney answering machine messages (see "Holiday Gift Of The Day" item in yesterday's Morning Thoughts) we'll just surf on over to Store.BarackObama.com, where you can now score Obama gear at 10% off for the holidays. Summer items are 25% off!

Which leads to the essential question: Campaign stores have departments now? What happened to giving away shirts in exchange for the free publicity? And did they have any door-busters on Black Friday? We can only imagine freezing Iowans huddled together for warmth outside someone's campaign office waiting for it to open at 5 a.m.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 04:20 PM | Email Author | Permalink

South Carolinians, it seems, just can't make up their minds. A new poll out of Clemson University shows nearly half the Democratic electorate and a sizable portion of the GOP electorate remains undecided little more than a month and a half before they head to the polls. "As the election itself draws closer, voters are taking their responsibilities more seriously, and respondents are less likely to make a casual selection when queried about who they are likely to support in the January vote," Clemson professors David Woodard and Bruce Ransom write.

The survey, conducted 11/14-27 with four days off for Thanksgiving and included 450 people from both parties, for a margin of error of +/- 4.62%.

Republicans
Romney 17 (+6 from last poll, 8/07)
Thompson 15 (-4)
Huckabee 13 (+7)
McCain 11 (-4)
Giuliani 9 (-9)
Paul 6 (+5)
Undecided 28 (+8)

Romney leads the latest RCP South Carolina Average by 4 points, edging out Giuliani.

Democrats
Clinton 19 (-7)
Obama 17 (+1)
Edwards 12 (+2)
Undecided 49 (+14)

Clinton still leads the latest RCP South Carolina Average by a wide margin, beating Obama by 12 points, though recent polls do show the race narrowing.

How to analyze this poll? Undecided voters break late, but half the Democratic electorate and a quarter of the GOP side makes us wonder how hard respondents were pushed to choose a candidate. Still, that may be telling: If Hillary Clinton has a big lead but only when leaners are included, that's great news for Obama, Edwards and others.

On the GOP side, those whisper campaigns against Giuliani may be working, but Romney's lead -- and impressive improvement -- suggests a state where many thought he would meet his demise may end up helping him after all. A win in South Carolina for the Mormon candidate, and suddenly the South is open to someone other than Fred Thompson. Interesting, too, to note that Romney's and Huckabee's rises come at the expense of three more established candidates Thompson, Giuliani and McCain.

But don't take this poll to the bank just yet. We'll wait for the next one to see if Romney still leads, and if Giuliani's fall is that dramatic.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

There were few bright spots for Republicans in 2006, but Heather Wilson was perhaps the biggest. The five-term incumbent survived a challenge from New Mexico's Attorney General by a narrow 875-vote margin, keeping a moderate Albuquerque-based district in GOP hands.

This year, Wilson is vacating her seat to run for the Senate seat currently held by retiring Sen. Pete Domenici. The race to replace her in the House is not one the GOP wants to fight: John Kerry and Al Gore both won the district, by 9,000 and 3,000 votes, respectively. Nearly half the district is made up of Hispanic voters, who of late have been trending toward the Democratic Party at a much faster clip.

But the NRCC got good news when Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White jumped into the race. The popular Republican, elected in a Democratic county, quickly released a poll showing him leading both Patricia Madrid, the ex-AG who lost to Wilson in '06, and Albuquerque City Councilmember Martin Heinrich by double digits.

Nothing, though, goes completely right for the GOP this year. The Associated Press reported yesterday that New Mexico State Sen. Joe Carraro plans to join the race for the seat, taking on White in a GOP primary. Carraro's Senate district covers parts of western Bernallilo County, on the western edge of the Congressional district's boundaries. Carraro established an exploratory committee earlier this month, and while some had speculated that he might drop his campaign to run for re-election instead, he insists he's running for Wilson's seat.

Carraro told New Mexico political analyst Joe Monahan that he sees the Iraq war and immigration as two top issues. The senator will have to earn 20% of the vote at a pre-primary convention in March in order to qualify for the ballot and give White real problems. But Carraro apparently doesn't plan on following Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment. He told New Mexico political watcher Heath Haussamen that, while White has the state GOP behind him, Carraro hopes business interests will join his campaign "to make sure that we have someone running for Congress that knows what they're doing -- no disrespect."

Still, Monahan considers White the front-runner. National Republicans have no plans to get involved, according to NRCC spokesman Ken Spain. "The NRCC does not pre-primary endorse. We trust local Republicans to decide on who they think would make the best nominee in the general election," he told Politics Nation. "With that being said, we are confident the seat will remain in Republican hands."

Democrats face a contested primary as well, as Heinrich will face off with former state Health Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham and Bryon Paez, a lobbyist and former state cabinet affairs director. Lujan Grisham and White are generating the most excitement among their parties, and a face off between the two would be a close contest.

Domenici's retirement not only attracted Wilson as a candidate, but won over Reps. Steve Pearce and Tom Udall as well. Udall's seat is likely to stay safely in Democratic hands, but Republican Pearce's southern Second District will be a target for Democrats. So far, three well-known Democrats have announced their intentions to run for the seat, as has wealthy businessman and rancher Ed Tinsley, a Republican who ran against Pearce in 2002. Several Republican state legislators are considering their own campaigns, but none has stepped forward yet. Stay tuned for more on that race.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Facing perhaps the most difficult challenge of any incumbent governor in 2008, Missouri's Matt Blunt has had a rough couple of days. After running up a huge fundraising lead on his likely opponent, Attorney General Jay Nixon, Blunt is agreeing to return about three quarters of his $6 million haul thanks to a state Ethics Commission ruling, severely reducing his financial edge.

The state legislature repealed donation limits set in 1994, sparking a fundraising battle that saw hundreds of thousands of dollars pour into both candidates' coffers in single contributions. But the state's Supreme Court overturned the law in mid-July, ruling that the manner in which the state Senate had acted was unconstitutional.

After fighting the decision for months, Blunt and Nixon agreed earlier this week to refund excess contributions. The upshot: Blunt's money advantage will shrink from about $3.3 million to about $130,000. Nixon will refund $1.3 million -- a significant chunk, but nowhere close to the nearly $4.5 million Blunt will give back.

The young governor, son of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt, skyrocketed to national attention in 2004 when he beat now-Sen. Claire McCaskill for the governorship when he was just 33 years old. Last year he was elected vice chair of the Republican Governor's Association, a top post that gave him access to national donors and an excuse to travel around the country, beginning what many believed would be an exciting political career.

This year, though, Blunt will become the first person in RGA history to run for re-election as vice chair instead of ascending to the chairman's post, the Kansas City Star reports today. Blunt will forgo a bid to chair the group after Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue steps down in order, a spokesman said, to focus more on Missouri and his own re-election contest.

An RGA spokesman told the paper Blunt would have won the support of Perdue should he have decided to run. The news meant a Missouri Democratic spokesman could give the zinger of the day: "Missouri voters lost confidence in Matt Blunt's ability to lead years ago. It looks like his fellow Republican governors are just getting around to that same idea," said party flack Jack Cardetti.

GOP governors meeting this week in California are now expected to select Texas Gov. Rick Perry as their chief headed into the 2008 elections. And, judging from recent poll numbers, Blunt will be one of Perry's top priorities. A poll conducted in mid-November for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shows Nixon leading Blunt by 9 points among all voters and by an astonishing 27 points among independents.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Every state has their political junkies. While they would be top political journalists in Washington, these journalists decide instead to be the best in their home states, putting them closer to candidates who might eventually contend for a top spot on a national ticket down the road. When that happens, the local journalists get their chance in the limelight.

Dallas Morning News scribe Wayne Slater got his chance in 2000, with George Bush, as did practically the entire staff of Texas Monthly magazine. Adam Nagourney knows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani well. And it's anyone's guess why a Massachusetts politician would run for president: Reporters at the Boston Globe and Boston Herald seemingly make their entire living tracking down every last detail about Mitt Romney and John Kerry.

Early states have their top politicos as well: In Iowa, institutional memory comes from the Des Moines Register's David Yepsen and the Associated Press' Mike Glover. In New Hampshire, John DiStaso, of the Union Leader, and the Nashua Telegraph's Kevin Landrigan are top dogs. South Carolina has Lee Bandy, and Nevada has Jon Ralston.

In Arkansas, the top political columnist is John Brummett, a long-time columnist with the Arkansas News Bureau. And with Mike Huckabee finding himself inching up in recent polls, Brummett is getting a lot of national mentions for his Huckmentum coverage. Today, Brummett details Huckabee's knowledge of popular culture, which he suggests comes from his younger days, when he was a radio DJ.

Home-state journalists are important barometers for how the national press will cover a candidate. Brummett has spent years around Huckabee, and when he writes the following sentence, members of the national press corps, until now swooning over the affable former preacher, might think again: "His is wholly a candidate of personality, and, as such, is more Don Imus than Billy Graham." The campaign has to cringe at that one.

As party nominees become more evident, other journalists will become better known nationally for their knowledge of their home state candidates. Pay attention to the coverage they provide. A friendly local press can be the difference between a win and a loss, once again proving Tip O'Neill's maxim: All politics is local.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:10 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Good Wednesday morning. Republicans are preparing to hear from snowmen, Mickey Mouse and others at the CNN/YouTube debate in St. Petersburg tonight. Before the gathering, here's what Washington is watching:

-- Congress is still out of session, but President Bush meets again with Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas in connection with the Annapolis conference, and Condoleezza Rice sits in. The conference has yielded no massive breakthroughs yet, but Olmert and Abbas agreed to keep talking, at the very least. And apparently even Barack Obama is getting involved in the talks.

-- On the Hill, Senate Republicans have set leadership elections for December 6, according to an email sent to GOP members and obtained by Roll Call. The race to replace Trent Lott as Minority Whip is all but over, as Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl has the contest all but wrapped up, The Hill reports. Kyl has not officially declared his candidacy, but he and supporters are making calls to Republican senators and appear to have secured the votes necessary to win while avoiding attracting a challenger. Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Richard Burr and Lamar Alexander are running for Kyl's conference chair post, while Jim DeMint is considering a race. Conference Vice Chair John Cornyn will seek Hutchison's Policy Committee slot, while Jeff Sessions will run to replace Cornyn as Conference Vice Chair.

-- Out on the trail, candidates are making mistakes. Or at least they're being accused of mistakes, and no one's innocent until proven guilty in a campaign. Did Mitt Romney tell a Pakistani supporter that he would not consider hiring Muslims for high-level policymaking positions? Mansoor Ijaz says Romney did, at a campaign stop in Las Vegas. Two others from the fundraiser back up Ijaz's claim, TPM reports. Romney's camp is pushing back hard on the report and the candidate himself denied saying he would not appoint Muslims, but Ijaz is not backing down. Downside for Romney? Not in a Republican primary, Cenk Uygur opines.

-- Mike Huckabee is not mistake-proof, either. The AP this morning shed light on a treasure trove of goodies for opposition researchers: 436 pages of documents on Huckabee's interactions with his state's Ethics Commission. Huckabee accepted 314 gifts with a total value of more than $150,000, according to the commission, and 16 complaints were filed, leading to five violations. On taxes, Huckabee's record is less altruistic than he asserts. And on immigration, he was not the hard-liner some supporters would like to make him out to be. Telling quote from Arkansas Ethics Commission director Graham Sloan: "People are starting to contact us and they're saying, 'We want everything on Mike Huckabee.'"

-- Nor is Barack Obama clean as a whistle. Obama's HOPEFUND PAC has given donations to elected officials backing his campaign in several early states, a move Hillary Clinton's campaign said was in violation of federal election law. Sure, a campaign wants to spread the wealth to their backers, but it looks bad when New Hampshire State Sen. Jacalyn Cilley gets a $1,000 donation just six days before announcing her support for Obama. The Clinton camp, by the way, was not Obama's only Democratic rival to spread a recent Washington Post story around, looking for takers. Ironically, as the LA Times reports, Obama's PAC violates the candidate's pledge not to take money from other PACs and federal lobbyists: It has done both. We don't think campaign finance stories attract an audience any wider than the Beltway (anyone who pays that much attention to politics, the theory goes, has already made up their mind), but the issue could strip Obama of one issue on which he and Clinton actually differed.

-- And for Rudy Giuliani, the Empire State Pride Agenda has bad news on the question of whether he's a gay rights supporter. The group has released "The Giuliani Files," detailing the ex-Mayor's backing for gay rights between 1994 and 2001. Those efforts included backing a hate-crimes bill, signing a domestic partnership law and addressing the group's annual dinner in 2001. Try explaining those positions to voters in South Carolina. (By the way, a must-read on the aborted Clinton-Giuliani Senate race in 2000, in which Adam Nagourney writes the two picked up many of the political skills they're showing off today).

-- Finally today, should Mitt Romney give "the speech" outlining his Mormon faith? Here's one influential voice Romney might want to listen to: Orrin Hatch, Utah's senior senator, Romney backer and a fellow Mormon. Hatch thinks Romney would do well to give a speech, according to the Associated Press. The campaign told AP that a speech "dealing with faith and values" is still being considered. New York Times' Michael Luo sees the Mormon issue as hurting Romney in Iowa while fueling Mike Huckabee's rise. Huckabee manager Chip Saltsman, though, says his candidate has no intention of bringing up Romney's faith, and will only discuss his own.

-- Reason To Buy A Bigger Suitcase Of The Day: More proof that, while Iowa and New Hampshire are critical for top candidates in both parties, this thing is going to continue at least through Super Tuesday: Obama is spending heavily in February 5 states, The Fix notes, with offices in 13 states including the newest one in Fargo, North Dakota. The campaign says they'll even send some poor souls to Alaska to campaign there. Clinton has five offices in just four states, though five more are opening soon.

-- Today On The Trail: A very slow day on the campaign trail. Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich address College Convention 2008 in Manchester, after Biden and Chris Dodd address the Iowa Association of Counties in Des Moines. Hillary Clinton talks about health care in Ankeny, Iowa, near Des Moines. And only John McCain holds events before the debate, with a town hall at Clemson and a party with supporters in St. Pete.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

This reporter hypothesized yesterday that, thanks to the brief window between Iowa and New Hampshire and some Democratic candidates' promises not to campaign in Michigan (despite the state legislature's move to force every candidate onto the ballot), Nevada has finally become important.

In the piece, we mention that Democratic candidates have taken far fewer trips to the state than to other early primary states. Our numbers, though, were somewhat off: Hillary Clinton has been to the state eight times, not five, while John Edwards has been there 17 times, not eight. Barack Obama has showed up nine times, as we reported.

With so few visits, is it any wonder that two of the state's biggest labor prizes remain up in the air? The state's Culinary Workers have yet to choose a candidate, and the union that represents most of the workers on the Vegas Strip would -- and probably will -- have a big influence on the race's eventual outcome. Nevada's SEIU chapter has yet to make an endorsement either.

While Senator Harry Reid is remaining neutral in the race, his son, Clark County Commission President Rory Reid, is backing Clinton, lending her a political operation in the state's most populous county, where many of the Democratic votes will come from. Edwards has won more union nods in the state than anyone else, and his success at wooing local SEIU chapters could help him win over Nevada service workers as well. Clinton and Bill Richardson have each been able to win some union backing as well.

Who's ahead and who's behind in the Silver State? We finally have enough polls to create an RCP Nevada Average, which shows Clinton up by a whopping 23.6 points, more than doubling Obama's totals.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

No, Bill Gardner hasn't re-thought his decision to hold the New Hampshire primary on January 8. And Chet Culver is still planning to caucus on January 3. But the February 5 "Super Tuesday" state is getting more crowded.

Yesterday, Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts signed a bill allowing the Bay State to join two dozen other states in holding its presidential primary on the first day allowed under party rules.

For Republicans, the move means that seven candidates will see their home states vote on Super Tuesday, including Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, New York and Tennessee. For Democrats, five of the seven candidates will have hometown primaries to attend, in Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Mexico and New York. Only John Edwards' North Carolina and Dennis Kucinich's Ohio vote later.

Losing one's home state is a big blow to a campaign, and some candidates in 2008 -- even top-tier hopefuls -- are in danger of coming in second at home. But when more than twenty-some states hold their contests on the same day, allocating more than 50% of the delegates needed to win the nominations, if someone can't win their home state on February 5, they're probably losing the nomination anyway.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:25 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Good Tuesday morning. Like the Redskins or not, today is a sad day in Washington as Sean Taylor has died, about a day after he was shot during a home invasion in Miami. He was