Though two recent polls showed Sen. John Sununu trailing by narrow margins, a new Granite State Poll by the University of New Hampshire shows former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen with the same commanding lead she help several months ago. UNH's Survey Center, headed by Dr. Andy Smith, conducted the poll, sponsored by CNN and WMUR-TV, between 9/17-24. 508 adults were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. In the state's First Congressional District, 230 adults were surveyed (+/- 6.5%) and 278 respondents came from the Second District (+/- 5.9%).

General Election Matchup
(All/Dem/GOP/Ind/Men/Wom)
Shaheen 54 / 82 / 15 / 63 / 53 / 55 (nc from last, in 7/07)
Sununu 38 / 9 / 26 / 79 / 42 / 35 (nc)

For comparison, the poll also surveyed the state's senior Senator, Judd Gregg.

Fav/Unfav
(Note: Change from last poll is fav rating only)
Shaheen 56 / 25 (-4)
Gregg 49 / 26 (+1)
Sununu 40 / 37 (-3)

House Fav/Unfav
(Respective districts only)
Ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley 42 / 26 (nc)
Rep. Carol Shea-Porter 33 / 21 (-6)
Rep. Paul Hodes 35 / 16 (+1)

Last week, we ranked New Hampshire as Democrats' number-one pickup opportunity. With a 16-point lead over an incumbent, Shaheen is in strong position, to say the least. Still, Democrats have to guard against being overly optimistic with the race. Having Gov. John Lynch at the top of the ticket, and his organization working in the background, will go a long way to keep everyone's eye on the ball.