In a possible setback to Congressman Tom Davis, the moderate Northern Virginia Republican running to replace retiring Sen. John Warner, Politico's Josh Kraushaar reports the state Republican Party Central Committee voted yesterday to nominate a candidate for Senate by convention.

Davis allies, Kraushaar reports, were lobbying for a primary, which they believe would give their candidate a better chance against more conservative former Gov. Jim Gilmore. Davis has a million-dollar fundraising head start on Gilmore, and a primary would draw many more moderate Republicans to the polls. A convention, many contend, would advantage Gilmore by drawing more conservative party activists.

The winner of either a primary or a convention will most probably face former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, in November. A Washington Post poll out this week showed Warner handily beating both Republicans. The same poll shows Gilmore leading Davis in the primary, 48%-29%.

But the setback for Davis could also become a setback for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. If Davis decides that facing a convention will be too difficult to win and opts instead to run for re-election in his Northern Virginia district, he would be a heavy favorite for re-election. If he continues with his Senate race, Democrats will have a strong chance to pick up the seat. While Democrats could still give Davis a run for his money, it would certainly be a much more uphill fight.

Another factor for Davis to consider is his wife, Virginia State Senator Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis. Devolites-Davis faces a tough re-election fight in state legislative elections this year, and political observers familiar with Virginia politics say her seat is a top Democratic pick-up opportunity. Many had suggested that Devolites-Davis would try to replace her husband in the House as he sought the Senate seat. If Devolites-Davis loses her seat, her bid for her husband's seat would be severely compromised.