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« Young Trails In Poll | Blog Home Page | Senate Fundraising Numbers »

Morning Thoughts: Game Day

It's Tuesday, the Colorado Rockies are in the World Series, oil approaches $88 a barrel in overnight trading, and more importantly, it's Election Day. See below for more on that. Here's what Washington fights over today:

-- The Senate today continues to debate the Commerce-Justice-Science Appropriations bill, while the House mulls amendments to the Internet Tax Freedom Act and the Free Flow of Information Act, which would protect reporters from being prosecuted for failing to reveal a source. The Senate Commerce Committee takes up the September 11th Commission's recommendations, while the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee begins to discuss the budget for the 2010 Census, beginning what will likely be a fight protracted for three years. The House Rules Committee meets to make a rule for the RESTORE Act, which limits certain kinds of electronic surveillance.

-- The folks at the Federal Elections Commission are very popular this morning. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton raised $27.3 million this quarter, spending all but $6 million for a total of $50.5 cash on hand, $15.9 of which is for the general election. That leads the field, ahead of Barack Obama, who raised $20.6 million for the quarter, spent $21.3 million and had $36.1 million on hand, $4.2 million of which is for the general. In third place, former Sen. John Edwards raised $7.1 million, spent $8.2 million, and retains $12.4 million on hand, $2.4 million of which has to be saved for the general.

-- On the Republican side, the numbers are much lower, but somebody's got to win. Rudy Giuliani raised $11.5 million and spent more than $13 million, leaving him with $16.6 million on hand, though $5 million must be saved for the general election. Mitt Romney raised $9.8 million and spent more than twice that, though an $8.5 million loan to his own campaign left him with $9.2 million in the bank. Romney's campaign is $17.4 million in debt, though all that money is owed to the candidate himself. Fred Thompson raised $9.3 million for the quarter, though his team maintains the pace took off after his formal announcement in September. John McCain pulled in $5.7 million, spent just $1.8 million and retained $3.5 million. The bad news for McCain, though, is that $1.8 million of his cash on hand has to be saved for the general, meaning the remaining $1.7 equals his debt.

-- The storylines developing for Republicans are of fast spending and little money left over. "Top spender Romney could soon run short," headlines the Boston Globe. Bloomberg notes Giuliani spent more than he raised, though the rate is "appropriate," according to a campaign finance expert at Fordham University. McCain posted a 95% burn-rate, ABC News headlines. And the New York Daily News looks at Thompson, spending $5,500 for food from a fancy French restaurant and $7,400 at an Atlanta liquor store, contrasted with Mike Huckabee, who catered two events from Sam's Club, shelling out a whopping $610. Those stories only add to GOP woes when other papers are writing about Democrats' better fundraising (NYT: "Democratic Candidates Keep Outraising Republicans"; USA Today: "Dems hold cash edge over GOP in '08 bids")

-- CongressDaily takes an early look at campaign finance reports and finds fuel for speculation that more members are about to hang 'em up. Florida Rep. C.W. Bill Young, long a retirement possibility, pulled in just $30,000 this quarter. Young's district went for President Bush by just 2 points in 2004 and to Al Gore by the same narrow margin in 2000. Indiana Democrat Julia Carson, whose health is said to be on the decline, raised only $9,000 last quarter. Carson represents a more solidly Democratic district, though she defeated her Republican challenger in 2006 by a narrow 54%-46% margin.

-- Around Washington, Republican fundraisers know they lag their Democratic counterparts this year. Political Action Committees representing all ten of the top industry contributors, according to Politico's Jeanne Cummings, are now giving more money to Democrats than the new minority Republicans; a year ago, the GOP led in 6 of those 10 fields. One reason Republicans are losing support in the business community, Cummings says, is their push to put business owners in jail if they hire illegal immigrants. That caused the Chamber of Commerce to join with the ACLU in a suit that successfully blocked the order from taking effect.

-- The only thing more exciting than FEC filing day, of course, is election day. Voters in Lowell, Tewksbury, Chelmsford and a number of other northern Massachusetts towns head to the polls today to select a replacement for Marty Meehan, who now serves as Chancellor of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. Democrat Niki Tsongas is the favorite going into the day, though Republican Jim Ogonowski is an impressive candidate who has given Tsongas a run for her money. (See our preview of the race here) If Ognowski wins, or even comes close, Republicans could benefit from some very positive articles.

-- Iowa's Excuse Of The Day: According to the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, Hawkeye voters really are more engaged than their counterparts around the country. 43% of likely caucus-goers have seen a presidential candidate in person. 16% have given money to a candidate, and, the statistic that floored us, a full 7% have been interviewed about the 2008 race by the media. That speaks to rumors many are hearing of roving bands of reporters, digital recorders extended, barking questions to anyone who passes. After caucus night, we're willing to bet that number is close to double what it is now.

-- Today On The Trail: Republicans head to Washington this morning for the Republican Jewish Coalition, where Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, McCain and Sen. Sam Brownback address attendees. Later tonight, the four front-runners address the RNC's Presidential Trust Dinner at the National Building Museum. McCain also becomes the first candidate to address a tele-town hall with NFIB, the Restaurant Association and Associated Builders and Contractors. Other candidates will follow on coming Tuesdays. On the Democratic side, Clinton delivers a speech in Manchester and attends a town hall in Salem, New Hampshire. Edwards is on a rural tour, stopping in Dunlap, Harlan, Exira, Greenfield and Waukee, Iowa, while Obama is in Fairfax, Iowa, to announce his rural agenda, followed by stops in Vinton, Amana and Tipton. And former Sen. Mike Gravel takes your questions on a live chat at the Washington Post at noon today.