Morning Thoughts: GOP Losing Lock On Business?
Welcome to Tuesday. Here's what's shaking in Washington:
-- The Senate begins consideration today of the Defense Appropriations bill. No appropriations bill has yet to make it through both chambers and conference committee, meaning Congress will be in Washington for a long time yet to come.
-- The House, meanwhile, takes up federal contracting reform, the International Emergency Economic Powers Enhancement Act and resolutions recognizing the beginning of Ramadan and decrying the violence in Myanmar. The House Education and Labor Committee is busy today marking up the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, or ENDA, which is sure to get some on the right up in arms when it comes to the floor, and the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee interviews Blackwater USA president Erik Prince.
-- President Bush today hosts Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in the Oval Office, as does Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, an hour later. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will appear on "The View" today at 11 a.m.
-- Sen. Barack Obama raised about $20 million, $19 million of that primary money; Bill Richardson pulled in $5.2 million; John Edwards is at $7 million; Joe Biden, Ben Smith reports, will come in a little under $2 million. Who's missing? Oh, right, Sen. Hillary Clinton. Waiting until the day after everyone else is smart, if your haul is huge. Further, it's sure to step on any news Sen. Barack Obama's Iraq speeches today might make (more on that below).
-- On the GOP side, Mitt Romney pulled in around $16 million, including a $6 million contribution from himself, John McCain raked in $5 million, and Fred Thompson had $8 million, while Rudy Giuliani's numbers remain unclear. One other surprise, and not in a good way: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who was expected to have a good quarter after an upset second place finish at the Ames straw poll, won't release his numbers until the required filing deadline of October 15. That would seem to presage bad news for the governor.
-- Yesterday's assertion that top Evangelicals would abandon the GOP and form a third party, if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican nominee, frankly isn't being taken all that seriously. The threat is "more bombast than substance," writes Marc Ambinder, who says the subject was first broached at a 2005 meeting in Miami. Dick Polman reports that the real problem for folks on the religious right is that they aren't quite sure how to proceed, and whether sacrificing 2008 is worth a Clinton presidency. Finally, Matt Lewis at Townhall floats the name for the third party nod: Former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, who, as JMart notes, came within 33% -- a virtual whisker! -- of beating Alabama Gov. Bob Riley in a primary.
-- As if losing the religious right weren't enough to make Republicans upset, the Wall Street Journal today fronts a piece by Jackie Calmes investigating whether the GOP is also losing its grip on business. "The votes of many disgruntled fiscal conservatives and other lapsed Republicans are now up for grabs," she writes. The argument that GOP troubles in 2006 had as much to do with rampant federal spending as anything else is one that some Republicans on Capitol Hill buy into as well, including Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake, who told RCP his party needs to get back to its small-government roots.
-- It has been said that in 2000, Al Gore didn't beat Bill Bradley in New Hampshire; John McCain beat Bill Bradley in New Hampshire. The argument goes thusly: Bradley and McCain were both hugely popular with independent voters, but those voters had to choose a party. The overwhelming majority took a Republican ballot, depriving Democrat Bradley of much-needed votes and handing him a loss. This year, though, New Hampshire independents are more likely to grab the Democratic ballot, writes Adam Nagourney. The 45% of the New Hampshire electorate that refuses to declare a party, which helped McCain to an 18-point win in 2000, could this year be one factor that knocks him from the race, as they are likely to be anti-war and more susceptible to a maverick image like Obama's, rather than McCain's.
-- State Of The Day: Wyoming Republicans understand the game. They don't care if they lose delegates to the 2008 convention; by holding their county nominating conventions on January 5th, likely only two days after Iowa holds its caucuses (though Gov. Chet Culver has yet to set the Hawkeye State's official date, the 3rd looks promising), Wyoming will earn significant media attention, some of which will come because second tier candidates can spend some money and see some television time in return. Candidates are taking note -- this weekend, Fred Thompson, Sam Brownback and Duncan Hunter spoke at a forum in Casper, while Josh Romney spoke for his dad. The man behind the state's newfound influence: Republican National Committeeman Tom Sansonetti, former chief of staff to the late Sen. Craig Thomas and was one of three finalists to take Thomas's seat when he passed away earlier this year.
-- Today On The Trail: Five years ago today, State Senator Barack Obama gave a speech opposing the war in Iraq. Today, U.S. Senator and leading presidential canddiate Obama marks the anniversary by giving a major foreign policy speech at DePaul University in Chicago, then kicking off a tour through Iowa over the next few days. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is in Boulder, Nevada, for meetings with voters. Sen. John McCain gives a speech tonight in Westminster, South Carolina, while ex-Sen. Fred Thompson continues his Iowa swing today with stops in Fort Dodge, Clinton and Coralville.



