Anne Evans Estabrook, a northern New Jersey businesswoman who once chaired the state's Chamber of Commerce, filed papers today with the FEC to challenge Sen. Frank Lautenberg.

A moderate, Estabrook will face a competitive primary with more conservative State Assemblyman Joe Pennacchio. Still, Estabrook begins the primary as the establishment favorite, and she has some big institutional support: Former RNC finance chief Lew Eisenberg will serve as chairman of Estabrook's campaign.

Whether Pennacchio or Estabrook takes the primary, they face an uphill battle against Lautenberg. Sure, a Quinnipiac University poll in September showed Lautenberg leading a generic Republican by just 3%, while his approval rating is only 42% (compared with 34% who disapprove). But New Jersey voters are notorious for refusing to answer polling questions, and for breaking to the Democratic side late.

Another sign the GOP isn't confident about their ability to capitalize on Lautenberg's weakness: Few Republican strategists ever point to the state as even a remote pickup opportunity. After losing close and expensive elections for Senate in 2000 and 2002 and for Governor in 2001 and 2005, Republicans know playing in Philadelphia and New York media markets is not cheap, and the party may decide that, four times bitten, five times shy.