Stephen Colbert will file to run in the Democratic primary as a Democrat, CNN reports, citing a source close to Colbert's campaign. The comedian had initially planned to file for both the Republican and Democratic ballots, but the GOP's $35,000 price tag was too high. South Carolina Democrats require just a $2,500 filing fee.

Still, even after he files, the Democratic Party's executive council will meet tomorrow to decide whether each candidate are eligible for the ballot. Party chair Carol Khare Fowler told CNN that Colbert does not look like he's campaigning to win nationwide if he's only running in the Palmetto State.

Colbert has already appeared at two events in his native state, stopping over the weekend in Charleston and Columbia, and is using his campaign to raise $100,000 for the state's schools through a philanthropic website. The site has already pulled in more than $40,000, CNN reported.

A brief editorial note: Colbert and Comedy Central have clearly had some detailed discussions about their plans. Not only has the television network hired a Washington law firm to help Colbert avoid running afoul of federal campaign laws, but now the "campaign" has anonymous sources willing to chat with the press on background.

A recent poll showed Colbert outdrawing some serious candidates on both sides of the aisle, and it is interesting to note the generally serious tone the media takes with Colbert's joke candidacy. The only conclusion this space can draw: There are too many media outlets looking for stories. Everyone, take a mandatory week-long vacation, beginning today.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Mitchell Wade, the defense contractor who pleaded guilty to bribing former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, will pay the second largest fine in Federal Election Commission history for his role in a scheme to funnel $78,000 in illegal contributions to federal political candidates. The FEC today announced a $1 million settlement with Wade and his company, MZM Inc., now called True Norte, Inc.

Wade used corporate funds to reimburse MZM employees for their contributions to Reps. Virgil Goode, a Virginia Republican, and Katherine Harris, formerly a Florida Republican. Wade pleaded guilty to a number of counts including election fraud in February, and an employee, Richard Berglund, pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor for making unlawful contributions in July. Berglund will pay a $42,000 penalty.

The FEC cleared Goode's and Harris's campaigns of wrongdoing, and both committees either returned the contributions or gave the money away.

Wade was the defense contractor who bought a house from Cunningham in Del Mar, California, for about $700,000 more than it was worth. After the purchase, and after other bribes including free rent and payments to a Pentagon official, MZM received more than $150 million in Defense Department contracts, thanks largely to Cunningham's position on the House Appropriations Committee. Cunningham is currently serving a 100-month prison term for his role in the public corruption scandal.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After a disastrous term at the helm of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2006, after months of headlines questioning her retirement plans and months of giddy Democrats pointing to her sinking approval rating, Sen. Elizabeth Dole looked like she might face a tough race for re-election next year. Now, after several top-tier Democrats took their names out of contention, Dole will face either investment banker Jim Neal or State Sen. Kay Hagan.

Hagan took her own name out of contention three weeks ago but has changed her mind, the AP reports today. Hagan's entry comes a week after Neal said publicly that he is gay, though she said his sexual orientation had nothing to do with her candidacy.

Even without a Democratic primary to drain the eventual nominee's bank accounts, Dole is in much better shape now than she's looked for several years. Having stockpiled over $2.3 million through the end of the third quarter, even her approval rating is climbing steadily. A poll conducted in late September by Elon University showed 50% of North Carolinians approving of her job performance, while just 25% disapproved. A Voter/Consumer Research poll, conducted for Dole, showed her job approval at 64% in mid-September, up three points from a June survey.

The fact that Dole has conducted two polls in the past few months shows that she won't take 2008 lightly. That can be good news for Republicans: The senator is unlikely to be surprised by any Democratic challenger. Democrats with a glass-half-full attitude can find good news, too: With Dole focusing on her own race, she will have less time to stump and fundraise for other candidates.

Neither Neal nor Hagan has filed with the FEC, and with a $2 million gap to make up, it is Dole's opponents, rather than the senator herself, who face a mountain the size of Kilimanjaro.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Good morning and happy Halloween. After a long night watching debates (yeah, like anyone actually watched) here's what Washington is keeping an eye on today:

-- The Senate considers version two of the SCHIP bill, with a vote on cloture coming this evening. The White House has already promised a veto. The House tackles trade adjustment assistance and the Hardrock Mining and Reclamation Act. The House Administration Committee's Elections Subcommittee holds a hearing on the use of robocalls in federal campaigns, and the House Ways and Means Committee takes up a bill to ensure free trade between the U.S. and Peru.

-- Much coverage today on the question of whether Hillary Clinton was tripped up late in last night's debate when asked about New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's move to give driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. One journalist point out to Politics Nation that a two-hour debate can trip a candidate up, and Clinton's non-answer-double-answer looked to many like a major slip-up. But the big question for Barack Obama and John Edwards: Was it a slip-up that they can exploit, or do they have to make the argument that Republicans will be able to exploit it? (By the way, my round-up of the debate here.)

-- Speaking of which, here's something to watch: Spitzer caused Clinton trouble last night, as did powerful Ways and Means chairman Charlie Rangel, whose massive tax overhaul Clinton was asked if she would support. The tax plan, the New York Times writes, is a big target, as is Spitzer's plan. Clinton mentioned her work as First Lady of Arkansas last night. Could that be a theme that becomes more prominent once the general election gets started? After all, it's a pseudo-red state to New York's big, bright baby blue.

-- After the fracas in Philly, one thing is clear: The nastiest general election campaign would be a contest featuring ... Rudy Giuliani and Joe Biden? After Biden's biting one-liner on Rudy's sentence structure ("A noun, a verb and 9/11"), the Giuliani campaign came out with a release on their differences: "Rudy rarely reads prepared speeches and when he does he isn't prone to ripping off the text from others." Back shot Biden's team: "It's pretty obvious that they can't defend themselves on the real charge that Mr. Giuliani walked away from the cops and firefighters who were waiting for the 9/11 Commission to be enacted and the Biden crime bill to be restored." Makes all the attacks on Clinton look downright civilized.

-- More marking of calendars: We saw fireworks in the debates last night, but the fur will really fly when Republicans and Democrats meet at Des Moines Register-sponsored debates, rescheduled from January for 12/12 and 12/13 respectively.

-- Back in Washington, President Bush addresses an issue today that the GOP, for its long-term well-being, needs to fix. Bush will talk to grocery store owners and food manufacturers about health care, and what he sees as Democrats' slow walk toward socialized, government-run health care. While Democrats are trying to expand Medicare and other government-run programs, Bush wants to boost private insurance markets, he will argue. Democrats have long led on credibility surrounding health care, according to polls. Whether the argument can be won by touting the business merits of one's plan, rather than the health merits, is a question Congressional Republicans hope are resolved by the president today.

-- Keep an eye on this: The first attack mailings are out in South Carolina, and nowhere can one find the words "Romney" or "Mormon." Instead, the mailers, from Sen. John McCain, take after Clinton and fellow Republican Rudy Giuliani. McCain, the mailer claims, "is a stronger candidate than Rudy Giuliani in the general election" and wonders about Hizzoner's record on choice, per CNN's Peter Hamby. The mailer is an invitation to a town hall meeting in Myrtle Beach, with an appropriately small universe of targeted homes, but the shot at Giuliani makes one wonder whether the Mayor will be a bigger target than Romney. The latest RCP South Carolina Average has Giuliani leading by just 0.2 percentage points over Fred Thompson.

-- Nod Of The Day: John Edwards got a pre-debate boost when members of the New Hampshire Service Employees union announced they would back his campaing, despite heavy lobbying from Clinton and Obama. SEIU couldn't come up with a national endorsement, so they freed their state chapters to do what they wanted. Edwards now owns nods from New Hampshire and Iowa, which means other state chapters can't send volunteers in to help their candidates of choice. Labor prizes left to win: AFSCME, which is said to be on the verge of endorsing Clinton, the National Education Association and the Communications Workers of America, per the NYT.

-- Today On The Trail: John Edwards is in Peterborough and Manchester, New Hampshire, and takes his kids trick-or-treating in Bedford. Barack Obama is trick-or-treating with his kids at home in Chicago. Mitt Romney's kids are probably too old to trick-or-treat, but he's in Adel, Iowa, for a house party. Rudy Giuliani visits a restaurant in Nashua, while John McCain presents his health care platform to a Kaiser Family Foundation-sponsored forum in Washington. Fred Thompson holds a press conference in San Francisco.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

John Edwards is having a heck of a night. He's trying his best to beat out Barack Obama for the Anybody-But-Clinton crowd.

Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson have gone after those attacking Hillary Clinton as hypocrites.

And which is the bigger storyline: Edwards' performance, or Obama's lack of any form of spark?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A thought: Sen. Hillary Clinton just mentioned some of her work in Arkansas. As she moves closer to a general election strategy, will the kind-of-Red-State become a bigger part of her message?

It seems like a wise move, and sounds better than pitching herself as a New Yorker.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

In the audience tonight: Bill Barloon, a former hostage in Iraq who credits New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson with saving him from captivity. Barloon was taken hostage in early 1995 and released after four months of captivity, thanks, he says, to Richardson's negotiations.

Barloon will be in the spin room after the debate, spinning for the media. Not a bad endorsement. Barloon has previously appeared in campaign ads for Richardson.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Moderator Tim Russert had no problem taking a less than gentle poke at Dennis Kucinich in a debate that, toward the end of the allotted time, just got silly, by asking him whether he really saw a UFO. Kucinich, whose UFO sighting was disclosed in a new book by longtime friend Shirley MacLaine, turned the answer right back around and got big laughs from the audience.

He made sure that Russert repeated, twice, than 14% of Americans claim to have seen a UFO.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 08:57 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Once the debate's "lightening round" began, and real policy questions started coming down the pike, journalists in Drexel University's media filing center got restless.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 08:52 PM | Email Author | Permalink

PHILADELPHIA -- As hundreds of students and perhaps thousands of volunteers descend upon the campus of Drexel University, top Democratic candidates John Edwards and Barack Obama find themselves painted into something of a corner. Each have promised their supporters, and themselves, that they will land blows against Hillary Clinton, increasingly running away with the Democratic nomination.

Photo credit:
Susan Davis

Each candidate has important questions to answer tonight. For Obama, who telegraphed his punch in a weekend New York Times interview, buzz is growing that supporters of his are getting restless with his failure to shake the Clinton foundations. After two efforts to change the tone of the debate amounted to little more than false starts, Obama may be forced to take a swing, and for someone unaccustomed to direct verbal jabs, anything less than a perfect swipe only hands Clinton an opportunity for a counterpunch.

Obama's long dedication, as well, to what he calls the politics of hope provides him a delicate balancing act that seems to argue for an attack. While any overt confrontations Obama begins will be greeted by cries that he abandons pretenses of an all-positive campaign, if he decides to avoid direct clashes, Democratic primary voters may wonder how he would be able to stand up to broadsides from the eventual Republican nominee, none of whom will be shy about taking him on.

For Edwards, the risk is of becoming a shrill attack dog. Edwards has done the most to draw contrasts between himself and Clinton, but none have proven terribly effective. Refusing lobbyist money and promising to remove troops from Iraq were Edwards' issues, but his contrasts are muted by the fact that Obama shares many of his policies. Ironically, it may be Edwards' criticisms that makes Clinton vulnerable to another candidate, but because Obama is the fresh new face, Edwards may not be the beneficiary of his own hard work.

If Edwards' campaign is thinking the same thing, it may be more important for the former Senator to draw his contrasts with Obama and set himself up as the Anyone But Clinton candidate.

The second tier can do almost nothing to break through, as countless debates have already shown. In hopes of winning a prominent position in tomorrow's stories, one possibility is to come to Clinton's defense and contrast not with her, but with Obama and Edwards. On the other hand, second-tier candidates this year seem unlikely to be prominent vice presidential contenders, and their campaign staffs may decide that lobbing grenades at any front-runner, at any opportunity, is their best hope.

Going into tonight's debate, in the city of brotherly love, at least two top Democratic candidates are lacing up their gloves. It is appropriate that a statue of Rocky Balboa, the world's most famous fictional boxer, stands just a short distance away on the steps of the Philadelphia Art Museum.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 06:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

When a member of Congress announces his or her retirement, especially in a contentious district, the incumbent party often faces a burden in avoiding a contentious primary, supporting a first-time candidate financially and reestablishing the good will the incumbent brought.

In Ohio's 15th District, where Rep. Deborah Pryce announced her retirement in August, Republicans face an even more basic challenge: Finding a candidate to begin with. The GOP has thus far failed to recruit any serious candidate, though the NRCC maintains it is a top priority. "We will have an A-list candidate sooner rather than later," NRCC press secretary Ken Spain told the Columbus Dispatch more than a month ago.

Strong candidates including former Attorney General Jim Petro, former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka, state Rep. Jim Hughes and State Sen. Steve Stivers have all passed on the opportunity. Only Aaron Wheeler, a pastor at Mountaintop Missionary Baptist Church, has declared on the GOP side.

Democrats will again back Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, who lost to Pryce by less than one half of one percent -- just over 1000 votes -- in 2006. Kilroy has already raised more than $425,000 this year, and maintains $380,000 cash on hand, albeit with $62,000 in debt. This morning, she got more good news when EMILY's List, a powerful Washington-based group dedicated to electing pro-choice women to Congress, announced they would back her campaign.

Kilroy raised more than $2.7 million in 2006, and with EMILY's List's backing, she can expect similarly strong financial support this year.

President Bush won the district by fewer than 2500 votes, out of more than 300,000 cast, making the district one of the most competitive in the nation. But all that may not matter if Kilroy finds herself with little more than token opposition come November.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A new report by the Campaign Disclosure Project shows some states are doing more than others to make campaign finance reports available to the public. Still, the report concludes, more states have work to do in making information available to the public. In all, 21 states improved their public disclosure systems since the last report, in 2005, while 14 states earned what the group called a failing grade.

Pacific coast states sweep the top three places, with Washington coming in first and California and Oregon trailing. In the Evergreen State, campaigns have to file disclosure reports on donors giving more than $25, with more detailed reports coming at the $100 donation level. Independent expenditures made within three weeks of an election must be reported within 24 hours, and all filings are electronic, unless a candidate spends less than $10,000. Software comes free, courtesy of the state's Public Disclosure Commission.

The report also investigated the accessibility of each state's information, and as a Washingtonian, Politics Nation can verify that Washington's system is less than perfect. Still, the state gets kudos for coming out on top for the fourth consecutive time.

The organization gave Washington an A-, the top grade this year. But more than a dozen states earned "F" grades for lack of thorough reporting requirements, inaccessibility of data and other problems. A state with weak reporting rules makes opposition and media research hard. Several failing states, including New Mexico, Delaware, Nevada and Montana, will feature hot gubernatorial or legislative elections in coming years.

Wyoming, though, earns the dubious distinction of dead last. Occupation, employer and cumulative contributions are not required, while the state doesn't require last-minute contributions to be filed until after Election Day. Expenditures, as well, can wait until after an election to be filed. Wyoming is also one of two states that posts none of its disclosure data online.

The group concluded that state-level disclosure is, in general, improving, with the most improvements coming in technological and online advances. Since 2005, five states have enacted online filing requirements, and five states added online, searchable databases of contributions or expenditures.

Find out how your state's disclosure rules stack up here.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:15 AM | Email Author | Permalink

After a week that saw Democrats lose a top potential candidate in Nebraska, another Senate seat the party hoped to pick up looks within reach, according to a new poll. Roll Call's David Drucker writes up a poll today showing Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez in good position for 2008, when he hopes to retake retiring Republican Pete Domenici's Senate seat for his party.

The poll, conducted 10/8-11, surveyed 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Lake Research Partners, a prominent Democratic polling firm, handled the survey for Chavez's campaign. Also tested was Rep. Heather Wilson, who represents Albuquerque and its suburbs.

General Election Matchup
(All / Ind)
Chavez 41 / 48
Wilson 40 / 30

Chavez, the poll suggests, is less well-known around the state and has room to grow as a candidate. Of those surveyed, 46% had a favorable impression of the mayor, while 22% viewed him unfavorably. By contrast, 48% viewed Wilson favorably and 38% unfavorably.

Pollsters will only release results that are good news for their campaign, so any internal polls that leak should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism. But this particular poll was conducted before Rep. Steve Pearce announced his intentions to run for the seat, pitting Wilson against a strong primary challenger and potentially weakening the eventual GOP nominee.

Candidates have until February 12 to file, and the primary is likely to be held in June.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:20 AM | Email Author | Permalink

It is highly impolite to ask a person's age, and heaven knows a guess is guaranteed to insult, no matter if it's high or low. But an intrepid, and brave, reporter for the Raleigh News Observer wanted to know exactly how old North Carolina Lieutenant Gov. Beverly Perdue really is.

Perdue, Ryan Teague Beckwith noted, has recently said she was born in 1947. But earlier documents show her birthdate listed as 1948. A spokesman said she changed her date of birth in order to please her first husband, whom she divorced in 1994. That first husband was seven months younger than Perdue, something he apparently didn't like to advertise.

The issue is not going to lose an election by itself for Perdue, who is currently locked in a Democratic primary contest with State Treasurer Richard Moore to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Easley. But if any more small fibs come out, a campaign commercial could be forthcoming. A good lesson: Nothing helps a campaign more than a good researcher, and nothing hurts a campaign more than a reporter digging in old files.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A beautifully clear Tuesday morning here in Washington. Politics Nation is headed to Philadelphia today, so stop by Pat's or Geno's -- we'll sample both. And, as one top GOP staffer advised us last night, we won't ask for swiss cheese. Here's what Washington is paying attention to today:

-- The Senate will begin roll call votes on the Amtrak Reauthorization bill this morning, and could take up the latest version of SCHIP, while the House tackles internet taxes and small business contracting. This morning, President Bush met with House Republicans at the White House.

-- Politics Nation will be gorging on cheese steaks in advance of the DNC-sanctioned Democratic debate taking place tonight on the campus of Drexel University, in the city of brotherly love. There will be little love lost tonight, though, if Barack Obama makes good on his promises to challenge Hillary Clinton more directly. Still, as Rick Klein pointed out yesterday, this is the third time in recent months that Obama has promised a more direct challenge to Clinton. The first came as early as August, while the most recent happened on CNN's Situation Room, in early October.

-- The media certainly wants a fight, and headlines today are forecasting a real battle. But the weekend New York Times interview previewing the battle raised two questions. "He certainly telegraphed that punch, which isn't always the best way to do this," Clinton backer Steve Elmendorf told The Hill. Is this Obama's way of attacking without actually attacking? The audacity, perhaps, of a head fake? Then, Elmendorf finishes the quote: "Time is running out, and they clearly know that." Have Obama's people just waited too long?

-- Meanwhile, one candidate is actually hitting Clinton with clear, sharp attacks that could gain traction, if anybody paid attention to him. Iowa is becoming more and more important to ex-Sen. John Edwards, but he seems to be losing steam there, according to the latest RCP Iowa Average. In early April, Edwards was at 31.3% and led the field. Today, he's down to 21.3%, trailing Clinton and Obama and on an obvious slope. For Edwards, tonight marks a likely turning point: Either he steps up and competes with both fellow front-runners or he descends into tedious whining. Watch how much time the MSNBC moderators give him; that's likely the deciding factor: The more time he has to make his point, the better chance he has of making it.

-- Just four presidential candidates have already spent more than $8.7 million on Iowa television ads, reports Ad Age's Ira Teinowitz. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have doled out about $2.6 million each -- as much as John Kerry did during the whole 2004 cycle -- while Bill Richardson is at $1.9 million and Hillary Clinton is at $1.6. The kicker: With so much money, Obama, Clinton and others will dump so much money into the Hawkeye State that Christmas advertising from local businesses will be elbowed out.

-- In what will perhaps be the best show on television tonight (yes, we know the debate's on, but still...) Texas Rep. Ron Paul heads to the Tonight Show with Jay Leno at Leno's Burbank studios. The appearance will certainly boost Paul's fundraising, which has been going at an impressive pace: He's raised $2.4 million this month alone, according to his website, which updates donations in real time. The LA Times notes that already, Leno has hosted presidential candidates 11 times. Still, no Rudy Giuliani and no Hillary Clinton. They're both Letterman fans.

-- Mike Huckabee is in the midst of his latest boomlet, and this time, he may be converting the opportunity. David Yepsen today gives him a "Reagan-like spirit" and suggests the former guv could actually win the Iowa caucuses. The New York Sun suggests he may be the GOP's dark horse this year, and the latest RCP Iowa Average shows him just over half a point out of second place. How's that translating in the money race? Marc Ambinder says pretty well: He's pulled in $700,000 online this month, a much faster clip than his first and second quarter pace, and about $5,000 a day better than the third quarter. Could this boomlet actually pan out?

-- Bad Headline Of The Day: "Thompson, in rare trip to state, promises more visits." So heads the Concord Monitor after Fred Thompson filed for the Granite State primary ballot yesterday in just his second visit. With just over two months before primary day, Thompson celebrated the grand opening of his Manchester headquarters and belted out this gem, by way of explaining his absence: "Every time you're somewhere, that means you're not somewhere else."

-- Today On The Trail: Paul is in Burbank and Democrats are in Philadelphia tonight. Before he gets to Drexel University, Bill Richardson heads to Concord to file for the primary. For the rest of the GOP, John McCain joins Jewish leaders for a forum in New York, Mitt Romney is in Chicago, where he holds a press availability, Rudy Giuliani participates in an NFIB conference call, and Fred Thompson announces new endorsements in Sacramento.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Two days from Halloween and some House Republicans must be thinking they've seen a reincarnation of Dracula. The State Children's Health Insurance Program is back again, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting seven more members on the new version of the bill, which passed the House last week.

Reps. Richard Baker (R-LA), Steve Chabot (R-OH), Kenny Hulshof (R-MO), Ric Keller (R-FL), Joe Knollenberg (R-MI), Peter Roskam (R-IL) and John Shadegg (R-AZ) are all under fire for their votes on the bill, which passed without a margin wide enough to override a veto. Still, with Democrats bringing the bill up over and over, these seven, and other potentially vulnerable members, are certainly searching for the mythical silver bullet or a few cloves of garlic.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Sen. Judd Gregg, dean of the New Hampshire congressional delegation, will endorse Mitt Romney today at the state capitol, the Union Leader reports this morning. Gregg will join Romney before the former governor treks across the street to file papers to officially become a candidate on the New Hampshire ballot. A top Gregg adviser, Tom Rath, was an early Romney backer.

Gregg's endorsement means two of the Granite State's four members of Congress have chosen a candidate. Freshman Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes threw his support behind Barack Obama in July. Spokespeople for Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and Republican Sen. John Sununu were not immediately available to answer questions about whether their bosses would endorse.

Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who is running against Sununu in 2008, is not backing a candidate, though her husband Bill is supporting Hillary Clinton. And Gov. John Lynch, also a Democrat, has remained neutral thus far.

No one from the Iowa delegation has publicly picked a candidate, though several South Carolinians have endorsed. Sen. Jim DeMint is on Romney's team, while Sen. Lindsey Graham is backing John McCain. Rep. Gresham Barrett is on board with former Sen. Fred Thompson.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:15 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is, by many accounts, someone the Republican Party could use to bring independents into the GOP fold. He's pro-life and pro-gun, and as he likes to say, he's conservative but he's not angry at anyone about it. George Bush's compassionate conservativism may not have played out for him, but for Huckabee, the label fits.

An ordained minister, Huckabee outperforms his fellow candidates in debates, and while he has yet to offer detailed policy proposals on a number of issues, he has important backers among social conservatives, especially from backers of home schooling and those advocating the so-called Fair Tax. Put him up against any Democratic vice presidential nominee in a debate and he draws clear contrasts, plus he would run circles around any but the best debaters.

So why are many in the conservative base writing him off completely? Huckabee, some conservatives assert, was a liberal when it came to taxes, social welfare spending and immigration, writes the Washington Times today.

It's an argument the anti-tax Club for Growth has been pushing for months. The group has gone so far as to run radio ads against Huckabee in Iowa, and their goal is clear: While few think Huckabee can win the GOP nomination, the Club wants to remove him from consideration as a potential veep.

Rule number one for vice presidential pickers: The choice must do no harm. By making Huckabee radioactive, the Club and other groups, including Phyllis Schlafly's Eagle Forum, hope to keep him off a Giuliani- or Romney-led ticket, both of whom would benefit from a Southern social conservative on the ticket.

Still, will the groups' efforts work? One prominent Republican strategist working for a front-runner this year literally laughed at the idea when asked by Politics Nation. No way, the strategist said, would small, inside-the-Beltway groups be major factors in eliminating Huckabee from Vice Presidential consideration. If the Club and Schlafly decide to redouble their efforts, look for more nasty ads before Huckabee faces the veep vetting process.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Good Monday morning. Let last night be a lesson: There's absolutely no reason to take eight days off between jobs. And really, does Bill Belichick need any more enemies? Aside from gloating Red Sox fans, here's what Washington is looking at today:

-- The Senate this afternoon takes up the Amtrak Reauthorization bill, though no roll call votes are scheduled. The House takes up bills to repair dams, recover from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and improve safety for miners. Several committees are holding field hearings today, including the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, which will investigate Chicago's transportation needs for its 2016 Olympic bid. President Bush, meanwhile, raises money for the Pennsylvania GOP in Bryn Mawr, then hosts a reception for Rep. Steve Chabot in Cincinnati.

-- Late last night, Iowa Democrats officially set January 3rd as their caucus date. Party chair Scott Brennan, in a statement, said keeping the first caucuses in the same calendar year as the general election is an "important common-sense principle." How much did Brennan have New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner in mind when he said that?

-- Speaking of Iowa, something for a certain campaign based on hope to consider, per the Des Moines Register: You're wildly popular with college students, many of whom would vote for you in huge numbers at caucus sites around the University of Iowa, Iowa State or any one of the many different campuses around the state. But on January 3rd, those students will wake up late, roll out of bed and go hang out with Mom and Dad in the middle of Winter Break. Which is more effective, 300 college kids in a room yelling and screaming for Obama, or one college kid in 300 rooms doing his or her best to convince their neighbors to vote for Obama? Given the requirements of caucusing, and the practice some of those students' older neighbors will have, that one college kid will have a rough time winning votes.

-- A new study from the Project for Excellence in Journalism, due out today, suggests the mainstream media never gave some candidates a fighting chance. Sens. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain, along with former Gov. Mitt Romney and ex-Mayor Rudy Giuliani, won more than half the coverage of the presidential race, despite the 17 candidates who are or were a part of the field. Obama won the most friendly press, McCain got the most negative, and Clinton and Giuliani got more negative than positive stories. Meanwhile, and this will make GOPers go nuts, Democrats still got more coverage and more positive press than Republicans.

-- One of those lesser-known candidates, Rep. Tom Tancredo, says he's done by the end of the year. Tancredo told the Rocky Mountain News last night, after the Rockies lost to the BoSox, that win or lose the presidency, this will be his last year in the House. The five-term member of Congress from Denver's southeast suburbs will leave a safe Republican district -- it gave President Bush 60% in both his presidential bids, outpacing Tancredo's margins of victory. Tancredo has been hinting that he would like to take on Sen. Ken Salazar when the freshman runs for re-election in 2010.

-- McCain gets another negative story, kind of, today as Paul Kane points out that the Senator, who last week said he regretted missing Woodstock, that "pharmaceutical event," because he was tied up at the time (to wild, standing ovation) actually missed the vote on the earmark he was criticizing. McCain hasn't been around for 52% of the Senate votes this year, the most among Senators running for president and second only to Sen. Tim Johnson, who was sidelined with a brain aneurysm. Still, McCain gets to cut the television spots, and we doubt anyone will hit him back on that. But it seems like missed votes are always a story.

-- A question that will determine the outcome of the GOP field: Which state is more important, New Hampshire or South Carolina? NYT's Michael Luo says South Carolina can give Fred Thompson the boost needed to win. Meanwhile, Fred Barnes (and Isaac Chotiner) thinks only Giuliani and Romney have scenarios that will enable them to win. And Romney's depends on New Hampshire.

-- Overserved Of The Day: Choosing Nevada to hold an early caucus was a bust, and it's the Boston Globe -- neighbor to New Hampshire, which complained incessantly about the move -- who writes the story first, in yesterday's paper. Voters just aren't interested yet, and it takes a while to learn to caucus, the Globe writes. National Journal, which keeps track of campaign visits, estimates the eight Democratic candidates have taken 50 trips to the Silver State this year, while Barack Obama and Bill Richardson alone have taken more trips to Iowa. Richardson leads the Nevada pack, with eleven visits.

-- Today On The Trail: Mitt Romney files for the New Hampshire ballot in Concord today, then holds town hall meetings in Manchester and Nashua. Rudy Giuliani holds a health care roundtable in Manchester and a town hall in Londonderry before heading to Hartford, Connecticut. Fred Thompson files candidacy papers in person, after last week's snafu, in Concord, then hosts the grand opening of his Manchester offices. On the Democratic side, John Edwards files his own papers, gives a major speech in Manchester and holds meetings in Exeter and Portsmouth. And Barack Obama holds an MTV/MySpace presidential dialogue in Cedar Rapids, followed by a fundraiser in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 08:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Republicans crowed recently when a Nevada poll showed public opinion of Sen. Harry Reid, the Democratic leader, tanking. But Reid doesn't face voters until 2010. A new poll, conducted by Research 2000, shows Democrats the MoveOn crowd, which has for months blasted Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell, Reid's GOP counterpart, with negative ads, may have a point -- the Republican leader's reelection numbers are less than stellar.

The poll, conducted 10/22-24, surveyed 600 likely voters for a +/- 4% margin of error. The Lexington Herald-Leader and WTVQ-TV commissioned the survey, which tested McConnell against Rep. Ben Chandler, Attorney General Greg Stumbo, State Auditor Crit Luallen and 2006 Congressional candidate Andrew Horne.

General Election Matchups
(All / Men / Wom / Dem / GOP / Ind)
McConnell 46 / 50 / 42 / 14 / 84 / 42
Chandler 41 / 38 / 44 / 71 / 7 / 42

McConnell 46 / 49 / 43 / 14 / 84 / 43
Stumbo 37 / 35 / 39 / 65 / 7 / 34

McConnell 45 / 50 / 40 / 14 / 82 / 42
Luallen 40 / 36 / 44 / 70 / 7 / 41

McConnell 45 / 49 / 41 / 14 / 81 / 44
Horne 34 / 32 / 36 / 59 / 6 / 35

McConnell's favorability rating stands at 47%, compared with 46% who view him unfavorably. With so few people undecided about McConnell, his path to re-election is made easier by virtue of the fact that the state's senior senator need not introduce himself to the electorate again. He can simply spend his time and money driving up an opponent's unfavorable rating.

Still, if Democrats managed to recruit either Chandler or Luallen, the seat could become one of the important Senate races to watch next year. Chandler and Luallen have favorability ratings of 57% and 56%, respectively. McConnell also does not begin a campaign with great job approval numbers. Just 45% approve of his performance, while 46% disapprove, including 53% of independents and 61% of self-described moderates.

The race would be an uphill battle for Democrats. But it's not the Matterhorn -- and some party activists, remembering the 2004 campaign, in which former Rep. John Thune knocked off then-Democratic leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota, with the assistance of then-Majority Leader Bill Frist, may be spoiling for enough of a fight that they'll try anything to beat McConnell.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Here's an intriguing thought: With Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson spending little time in Iowa, virtually ceding the territory to Mitt Romney, there are still a lot of undecided voters looking for a candidate. That vacuum isn't right for a Ron Paul -- caucus-goers are too traditionally Republican. Mike Huckabee's doing all he can to fill it, but he doesn't have the money. And try as they might, no one is seriously considering Duncan Hunter or Tom Tancredo.

That leaves John McCain. What if we've been looking at the effect of Giuliani and Thompson taking a pass all wrong? Here's a new angle: With the big candidates out, Iowa provides the oxygen for smaller candidates to grow. Could John McCain's campaign find its rebirth not in New Hampshire, but in Iowa?

If they didn't think so , we wonder why McCain's people have dropped two rounds of mail, hitting more than 100,000 households, in the past two weeks. Jonathan Martin has copies of both. McCain doesn't have to win in Iowa, and given the commitment Romney has shown to the state, he likely won't. But a strong second-place showing would make McCain an important part of the stories for the next week. It would be just the boost McCain needs going into New Hampshire.

We've said it before, we'll say it again: Don't count McCain out of this race. He's going to be a difference-maker, one way or another (By the way, we argued that very point in an article today).

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

From yesterday's Marketplace, on NPR:

"I'm willing to work with any president in the next election, no matter who she is."

-- A confident Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), who is, of course, backing fellow New Yorker Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:59 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A hotel in Brattleboro, Vermont, where Rep. Tom Tancredo stayed during a recent visit to neighboring New Hampshire, was raided recently by law enforcement officials looking for, what else, illegal immigrants. Tancredo told the Rocky Mountain News' M.E. Sprengelmeyer that he was surprised to hear about the raid, which also netted owner Gurdeep Nagra, a Canadian citizen.

The raids, at a Hampton Inn and a Quality Inn, netted a total of 14 workers whose immigration status was questioned. Seriously, coming so soon after a Tancredo visit? Sure, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement investigation reportedly began about a year ago, but sometimes there are just too many coincidences.

Also today, another example of an increasingly important lesson for Democrats: Do not irritate the Netroots. They have a long memory. Rep. Brian Baird, the Washington State Democrat who traveled to Iraq recently and came back saying he believed the surge was working, has been on the receiving end of some rough talk from lefty bloggers.

Now Baird is looking for a new communications director. Open Left's headline: "Want to Become a Rightwing [sic] Cable Booker?" Baird is a relatively liberal member of the Washington State delegation, though being out of step on the war is enough for excommunication.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:20 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Rep. Michael McNulty will call it quits after ten terms in Congress, the Albany Times Union reports. McNulty, who is expected to announce his plans at an event Monday, becomes the first Democrat to announce he will not seek re-election.

The open district is of little help to Republicans, though. Democrats outnumber GOP voters by about 50,000, as Al Gore carried the seat 56%-39% and John Kerry won it 55%-43%.

The Times Union points to Democrats Brian Stratton, mayor of Schenectady, Bethlehem State Sen. Neil Breslin and Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks. Assemblyman George Amedore could be a solid Republican candidate.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:20 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Let's see, the Patriots are undefeated, the Sox take a 2-0 lead back to Denver, Boston College survives -- in Blacksburg -- to remain number two, and the new-look Celtics are all anyone in the NBA talks about besides Kobe. Boston fans never, ever, get to complain again. Aside from that, happy Friday, and this is what we're watching today:

-- The Senate is in session, but there are no votes today, while the House is out of session. President Bush meets with Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila at the White House, DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff speaks to the International Association of Fire Chiefs, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates gets to go home, somewhat, when he receives the 2007 George (H.W.) Bush Award for Excellence in Public Service at Texas A&M University, where Gates was president until being nominated as Pentagon chief.

-- After Iowa Democratic Party chairman Scott Brennan suggested his central committee vote to hold the caucuses on the same day as the state's GOP, January 3rd, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner told the Union Leader's John DiStaso the move clears the way for the Granite State to hold their first in the nation primary in January, rather than December. It ain't pretty, but for now, it appears, a major calendar crisis has been averted. DiStaso's counterpart, David Yepsen, thinks January 3rd helps John Edwards. Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times thinks the resolution helps Florida.

-- Elsewhere on the presidential campaign trail, Texas Rep. Ron Paul is finally doing something with all that money he's raised, according to the New York Times. Next week, the campaign will roll out its first big television ad campaign, committing $1.1 million to ads in New Hampshire over the following six weeks. That level of spending won't compete with Mitt Romney, who has his personal fortune to thank, but with Paul already at 7% in one poll -- fourth in the state -- he could become a serious headache for the three candidates running ahead of him. And by the way, what will the mainstream media think of a candidate who finishes behind Paul in an early state? We're looking at you, Senator Thompson.

-- Hillary Clinton turns 60 today, and the AP gives her a nice present, with Nedra Pickler writing that the Democratic race is hers to lose. Making matters worse for the Democratic field, CNN Political Ticker found the story running in the Quad City (Iowa) Times. The last thing Barack Obama and John Edwards need now is Clinton's sense of inevitability creeping into Iowa.

-- Obama's campaign has been distracted lately by the controversy over a pastor and gospel singer whose views on gays and lesbians are not as progressive as the candidate's. In fact, Donnie McClurkin's views are exactly those that rile up the GLBT community -- that homosexuality can be cured, that homosexuality is akin to drug addiction and alcoholism, and, for some reason, that gays are trying to kill children. Now some in the lefty blogosphere are taking Obama to task for trying to stick by McClurkin, John Aravosis being the most strident voice thus far. Politics Nation thought Floyd Mayweather's battery charges were going to be worse for Obama; we appear to have been mistaken. Still, every day his campaign is dealing with this crisis is a day it is not attacking Clinton.

-- In Kentucky, things still look bad for Gov. Ernie Fletcher. A new Research 2000 poll shows the incumbent trailing former Lieutenant Gov. Steve Beshear 55%-40%, virtually the same as the last R2K poll, in mid-September, which showed Beshear leading 56%-39%. Fletcher, whose administration has been marred by scandal and who was himself indicted on three misdemeanor charges, is the first Republican to hold the governor's mansion since Louie Nunn left office in 1971.

-- Republicans will probably lose Kentucky, but they got some good news yesterday when former Washington State Senator Dino Rossi announced he would make another bid for governor, once again challenging Democrat Christine Gregoire. Rossi won two machine counts of the ballots in 2004, then lost a hand recount by fewer than 150 votes, the closest election in state history. Rossi has a ways to go before he catches up with Gregoire financial