RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

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Shaheen Leads Early, Not Overwhelmingly

Former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who last week stepped down from her post as Director of the Harvard Institute of Politics to seek a rematch with Sen. John Sununu, got some good news thanks to a new American Research Group poll, out today, though Sununu can claim the poll as a shot in the arm for him as well.

Six years ago, Sununu beat Shaheen 51%-47%. Now, ARG, a New Hampshire polling firm that has done work for Republican candidates in the past, shows Shaheen in the lead:

General Election Matchup
(Now/GOPers/Dems/Indies)
Shaheen 46 / 8 / 88 / 46 (-11 from last poll, in 6/07)
Sununu 41 / 80 / 7 / 35 (+12)

Polls earlier this summer showed Sununu trailing by huge margins, including 57%-29% in June's ARG poll and 54% to 38% in University of New Hampshire's Survey Center poll.

Is a poll showing a much narrower race an outlier? Is it further evidence that once a potential candidate becomes an actual candidate, their support drops? Look for another poll, from UNH, in the very near future.