As the fundraising quarter draws to a close at midnight tonight, candidates are scrambling to boost their numbers by any means necessary (we've received two fundraising pitches signed by candidates with the subject line "Hey," and one from a spouse headed "Re: Hey"). And while he's gotten little attention outside his fervent and fanatic fan base, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who finished the second quarter with more cash on hand than Sen. John McCain, could have another surprise in store for the media establishment his supporters so often malign.

In the run-up to the filing deadline, Paul's supporters were asked to help the candidate raise $500,000 in just a few days. That's more than former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee raised in the entire first quarter, by the way. Yesterday, the Paul campaign revised its goal -- supporters had raised $850,000 already, and the campaign was shooting for $1 million by midnight tonight.

The campaign reached the $1 million mark last night, a full day ahead of schedule.

Paul won't outraise any of the front-runners, but the frugality with which he is running the campaign, as well as the fervency of his supporters and his presence in Iowa and New Hampshire, mean that he will be one second-tier candidate unwilling to drop out before the nominating process takes its course. Paul could cause some serious problems for the front-runners, and it looks increasingly like he will have the money to compete in at least a few early states.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The irreplaceable David Postman, Washington State's version of David Yepsen or John DiStaso, reported earlier this week that 2004 Republican gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi stepped down from his post as head of Forward Washington, a non-profit think tank he had founded, because he was a distraction to the group's mission.

Rossi told another Seattle Times reporter that he would spend about the next six weeks contemplating a rematch against Gov. Christine Gregoire (D), who beat Rossi in the most closely-contested election in Washington State history, the validity of the results of which are still hotly debated.

Rossi initially decided to accept a severance package from Forward Washington, though he later decided against one

Postman thinks Rossi's decision to step down, as well as the $3 million Gregoire has raised, are their own announcements, and that neither is being terribly honest when pretending to delay an official announcement.

If Rossi does make the race, national Republicans will no doubt help him catch up with Gregoire's fundraising -- he made good connections when, after his loss, he traveled to DC for President Bush's second inaugural, and the RGA still has him smack in the middle of their radar. The Evergreen State will be one of the most tightly contested races in 2008.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:10 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Nobody won, some people lost, I wrote of the Democratic debate. Now, perfect for a Friday, the reporter's version of a document dump:

Number of "Moose Crossing" signs: 3

Number of sign-waving fanatics: A few hundred (but fewer than it looked like on TV).

Number of pundits with beards on MSNBC's "Hardball": At least 2.

Washington Post's Dan Balz and NBC's Chuck Todd pontificate for Chris Matthews

Number of Bill Richardson trucks: 2. But I only got a picture of one. Don't think the other was an official campaign vehicle.

The snowman showed up as well, even though the temperature hovered in the 90s all afternoon:

So did the press. The press room during the debate (that's ABC's David Chalian in the middle):

After the debate, the spin room was packed. Why not open up a bigger room?

Among the attendees:

Elizabeth Edwards

And Obama's David Axelrod

As everyone can tell, photography isn't my strong suit. Still, I'll be taking and posting pictures every chance I get along the campaign trail.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:20 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Former Omaha Mayor and Congressman Hal Daub will end his Senate bid at a press conference in his hometown this morning, just ten days after jumping into the race. The Omaha World-Herald broke the story this morning.

An underdog in the Republican race to replace Senator Chuck Hagel, Daub's exit is a good thing for Cornhusker Republicans. With three major candidates running for the Republican Senate nomination, the GOP nominee would have likely faced a Democrat without a primary.

Former Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns is a heavy favorite in the GOP primary, though Attorney General Jon Bruning remains in the race to put up a fight. Former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey is still said to be mulling a bid.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:40 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The liberal netroots, headed by DailyKos, has picked an early target for their fire: Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn. The conservative Senator is one of Capitol Hill's biggest Bush boosters, and Kossacks, as they're called, want him gone. Kos commissioned a poll from Research 2000, a respected firm on the Maryland side of the Beltway, that they hope shows State Rep. Rick Noriega has a legitimate shot at beating the incumbent.

The poll, conducted 9/24-26, surveyed 600 voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

General Election Matchup
(All / Men / Wom / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Cornyn 51 / 53 / 49 / 17 / 81 / 46
Noriega 35 / 34 / 36 / 60 / 16 / 35

Vote To Re-Elect Cornyn?
Re-elect 40
Consider replacing 15
Replace 35

Fav/Unfav
Cornyn 46 / 44

Cornyn Job Approval
Approve 45
Disapprove 44

Cornyn finds himself above the magic 50% number, meaning Noriega will have to work to take votes away from him. And while the race will tighten, Texas is a massive state that requires tens of millions to even be taken seriously. Whether Noriega can even come close to competing financially is a major question that will determine how tight the race becomes.

Few will deny that Cornyn is a major favorite right now. Noriega even faces a primary, from wealthy attorney Mikal Watts, who will largely self-fund. Still, Kossacks are proud of their claim that they identified Sens. Jim Webb (D-VA) and Jon Tester (D-MT) well before the mainstream media did, and even as they faced competitive primaries, and, they say, helped them win their seats.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Nearly October and Fall still hasn't quite arrived in Washington. And with fewer than 72 hours to go until the third quarter fundraising deadline, the candidates are starting their final pushes.

-- No major action expected in either the House or the Senate today. In the administration, President Bush delivers remarks at a climate change conference at the State Department, while Vice President Cheney addresses the Council for National Policy in Salt Lake City, then raises money for newly-appointed Senator John Barrasso in Teton Villiage, Wyoming. Finally, the Congressional Black Caucus holds their annual Legislative Conference, where members and guests will hear from Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as freshman Sen. Jim Webb.

-- Democrats are secretly breathing easier this morning, as backers of a controversial initiative to award California's electoral votes by Congressional District have given up. The plan, which would have conceivably given Republicans as many as 20 of the state's 55 electoral votes, has suffered from internal arguments, a lack of funds and resignations, reports the Los Angeles Times, which broke the news. Two other states, Nebraska and Maine, split their electoral votes, though neither are ever seriously contested. Had Republicans who backed the electoral initiative succeeded, the party would have been looking at a much easier path in 2008.

-- For one Democrat, today is going to bring a lot of questions that will send the campaign off message. Former Senator John Edwards yesterday said he would accept public financing for the Democratic primary, a change from his previous plan to raise and spend amounts not subject to the FEC's spending limits. The campaign's point of view: Adhering to spending limits draws an important distinction between Edwards and the two free-spending front-runners. The immediate reaction from other campaigns: Stick a fork in him; Edwards is done. The spending limits, they say, will mean Edwards gets to spend less on advertising in Iowa than New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson already has spent. Really, can you get by with just $1.48 million in Iowa (FEC limits here)?

-- It's amazing to see the following sentence, comparing Edwards' fundraising to Clinton's and Obama's: "Edwards raised just $23 million in the first six months of the year," writes AP's Nedra Pickler

-- Edwards spent some of yesterday defending his wife, who has no qualms taking on Clinton, Obama, or really anyone in her path. But Elizabeth Edwards, John's biggest fan and closest advisor, isn't the presidential spouse who wishes she hadn't said something she did. That honor falls to Michelle Obama. "Iowa will make the difference," Obama said, according to the LA Times. "If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it is just a dream." Wait, did she just say Obama, running third in the latest RCP Iowa Average, had to win the Hawkeye State? That's pretty far off the reservation.

-- Campaign manager David Plouffe, though, said the same thing without saying the same thing in a memo to supporters this week. While polls have Obama running behind, Plouffe argues that the campaign will benefit from a "hidden vote," meaning youth and others who don't typically vote in primaries. Those voters, pollsters know, don't actually vote in most primaries, so the pollsters set up "screens" to weed them out of samples. Plouffe may be right, Obama may have a great deal more support than he shows in public polls. But there's a reason pollsters say youth and others don't vote in primaries: They don't, typically. For any campaign to rely on a population like that to win a primary can be very dangerous. Obama's New Hampshire director, Matt Rodriguez, stayed behind at the debate site yesterday to encourage students to register their friends to vote for his guy. Does this mean Obama's camp knows he's having trouble with older voters?

-- On the GOP side, major evangelical leaders are not only frustrated with the lack of a consensus social conservative among Republican front-runners, they're beginning to get frustrated with each other, reports the Washington Times. American Values founder Gary Bauer has criticized statements from Focus on the Family President James Dobson, who doesn't think Fred Thompson is a Christian, while Family Research Council President Tony Perkins downplayed any rift. Redeem the Vote chief Randy Brinson, of Montgomery, Alabama, said the lack of a consensus was coming from Washington-based evangelical groups, who had a symbiotic relationship with economic conservative groups and therefore wouldn't back former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a Southern Baptist minister.

-- What if you throw a debate and the guests of honor don't show? Well, six Republican candidates who did show up to the PBS debate last night in Baltimore tried to out-do each other by lobbing bombs at the four front-runners who skipped the show. The front-runners have been criticized by party strategists for abandoning the minority vote, and now they have a chance to remedy the situation: Univision and the University of Miami are offering GOPers another shot to address Hispanic voters, after an originally-planned September 16 forum was called off due to lack of interest.

-- One of those front-runners has a little more brushing up to do if he's going to perform well in his first debate, in Michigan in October. After botching questions on Terri Schiavo and drilling in the Florida Everglades, former Senator Fred Thompson admitted yesterday he was unaware a federal judge had ruled Tennessee's lethal injection procedures were unconstitutional. The Senator, who made the death penalty a centerpiece of his campaign in 1994, was also unaware that the Supreme Court said it would take up the question of whether the procedure in neighboring Kentucky violated the Eighth Amendment protection against cruel and unusual punishment. Thompson needs to lock himself in a room with newspapers from the last year if he wants to protect himself from what could be a fatal stumble in his first debate.

-- Endorsement Of The Day: The day after winning the backing of Hollywood mogul Rob Reiner, the world learns that Sen. Clinton is also picking up the support of former Democratic nominee George McGovern. McGovern will announce his support in Iowa City on October 6th, he confirmed while sitting in a barber shop in his home town of Mitchell, South Dakota.

-- Today On The Trail: Huckabee delivers a foreign policy address at the Center for Strategic and International Studies today in Washington, while Obama delivers the convocation at Howard University, also here in DC. Clinton and Obama are also, as noted above, addressing the CBC legislative conference. Sen. John McCain is in Detroit to address the 2007 Hispanic Business Expo; he later holds a town hall in St. Clair Shores, Michigan. Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney will address the Council on National Policy, though not with Cheney, in Salt Lake City. Ex-Mayor Rudy Giuliani will continue a California swing in Los Angeles and Yountville. John Edwards is still swinging through New Hampshire, and Richardson is raising cash in Florida.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

MANCHESTER -- After a big Democratic debate last night (check out the wrap-up here), did anything change? We'll see. But before we do:

-- The Senate today takes up hate crimes legislation, and if Senator Hillary Clinton's jab lands, Senator Barack Obama will be there (see the wrap-up for more on that). Meanwhile, the Senate Commerce Committee takes a look at air travel delays after what was reportedly the worst summer in history for long, unexpected waits.

-- The lower chamber, meanwhile, takes up flood insurance reform and small business investment. Democrats keep hammering Iraq, as the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee will hold a hearing assessing the state of that country's corruption.

-- Vice President Dick Cheney raises Republican cash today in Nevada and Colorado, both for the party instead of a named candidate.

-- Mayor Rudy Giuliani, just days before the end of the third quarter fundraising period, has replaced top fundraiser Anne Dunsmore. A spokeswoman told the New York Times Dunsmore hadn't been fired, and another spokesman refused to elaborate to RCP, saying only the campaign was going in a new direction. The campaign has tapped Jim Lee, a former Bush fundraiser, to take over the money shop.

-- Meanwhile, we heard rumors about one Democratic candidate being ill last night, and today Mitt Romney has canceled a few weekend events because he, too, is feeling under the weather. And in Long Beach yesterday, the former venture capitalist who has given $9 million to his own campaign said he would be willing to write himself another check down the road. Will he wait until the start of the fourth quarter? His last contribution, of $6 million, came in the second quarter, as far as we know.

-- Senator John McCain is trying to get back on track in New Hampshire, where he has always seemed more comfortable. The beleaguered campaign has bought television time in New Hampshire for the campaign's first ad. McCain holds a 10:30 conference call with reporters today to discuss.

-- In some actual good news for Republicans in the House, 2006 nominee Angie Paccione announced yesterday that she would not seek a rematch against Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado's 4th District. Paccione came within two points of knocking off Musgrave, a relatively unpopular incumbent still in a GOP-leaning district, in '06. Her departure means Democrats will have to rely on Sen. Ken Salazar's former aide Betsy Markey and former Reagan appointee and 2006 independent candidate Eric Eidsness to take the seat.

-- Credit Where Credit Is Due Of The Day: As (some) Republicans head to Baltimore tonight for a debate aimed at attracting African-American voters to the GOP, Republican strategists are urging candidates to show up and participate in forums and debates targeting minority groups. The GOP doesn't have the luxury of writing off some constituencies, argued Armstrong Williams on National Public Radio yesterday. But before every Republican candidate is painted with the same broad brush, remember that Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo was the only candidate to show up at the NAACP's presidential forum in Detroit in July. The image of Tancredo amid eight other empty podiums was his best press day of the year.

-- Today On The Trail: Tancredo, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes will face Tavis Smiley's questions in Baltimore tonight. John McCain gives what's billed as a major policy address on Iraq in New York City. In California, Rudy Giuliani wins backing from ex-Gov. Pete Wilson, then meets residents in Santa Barbara and hits a fundraiser in Lancaster. Fred Thompson is still in Tennessee, raising more money. On the Democratic side, it's rally day for Barack Obama, in Washington Square Park, while John Edwards participates in a candidate "dialogue," sponsored by MySpace and MTV, in Durham, New Hampshire, then kicks off a two-day sprint around the state. Bill Richardson has media events in East Boston, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Off to catch a flight. Next dispatch coming from Washington.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Today, we debut Politics Nation's Exchange, where we rank the big Senate races up for election in 2008. We've ranked the races based on the order in which we think they are most likely to change hands -- that is, the number one race is the seat most likely to switch from one party's control to the other.

Bottom line: it's an ugly year for Republicans, and it's probably not going to get much better. With the number of GOP open seats rising, the fundraising gap between the two parties widening and all the breaks seeming to favor Democrats, Republicans are looking at another disappointing year in 2008, though a lot more dominoes would have to fall for Democrats to break the magic 60 number.

Agree? Disagree? Drop us a line, and make sure to trade your contracts in RCP's Fantasy '08 stock exchange.

10. Alaska: (R) A recent report on National Public Radio suggested that Alaska has three main sources of revenue: Oil and gas drilling, tourism, and Sen. Ted Stevens, who has brought billions to the state over his long career. But with Stevens under increasing scrutiny for his role with the Veco Corp., retirement rumors are spreading, and over the weekend even Gov. Sarah Palin, a fellow Republican, got into the act, saying Alaskans needed to hear a better explanation from Stevens. If Stevens steps down, Republicans would be favored to hold the seat; possible candidates would include Lieutenant Gov. Sean Parnell, former State Sen. John Binkley, who ran for governor in 2006, and several incumbent legislators. Democrats, though, have two strong candidates -- 2006 Lieutenant Gov. nominee Ethan Berkowitz and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, whose father served in Congress. Begich would seem to be the stronger candidate; the last Democrat elected statewide, Tony Knowles, also served as mayor of the state's largest city.

9. South Dakota: (D) Sen. Tim Johnson's medical issues continue to raise questions about whether or not he will retire, though his recent return to the Senate indicates he's not quite done yet. If he does retire, Democrats would likely turn to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who is used to difficult races and is known because of her statewide district. Republicans have a problem, in that no strong challenger has emerged to face Johnson, and even Herseth got a relatively easy ride in 2006. That all changes, though, if Gov. Mike Rounds (R) would move to replace Johnson. Rounds is one of the most popular governors in the country, and if he makes a race, he would become an immediate front-runner and the GOP's best pickup opportunity of the cycle.

8. Minnesota: (R) Sen. Norm Coleman came to Washington under less than ideal circumstances -- following the death of his opponent in 2002, Paul Wellstone. He is somewhat popular in the state, but Minnesota is still Democratic, and in a year less than favorable to the Republican Party, Coleman, while the initial favorite, will have his work cut out for him. His Democratic opponent will be the winner of a primary between comedian Al Franken and attorney Mike Ciresi, both of whom fall short as Democrats' ideal nominees. Still, Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty came within a whisker of losing to a less-than-stellar Democratic challenger in 2006, and with a similar national tide against the GOP, Coleman could find himself in a nail-biter.

7. Nebraska: (R -- Open) His Senate career over, the race to succeed Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) has heated up incredibly quickly. Like New Hampshire, both parties got their strongest potential candidates. Unlike New Hampshire, where Democrats got out of the way of former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, Republican former Gov. Mike Johanns may face a contested primary. It is unclear how much a challenge from Attorney General Jon Bruning will distract Johanns, but the GOP doesn't need the fight in a strongly Republican state. If the Republican nominee faces former Sen. Bob Kerrey, who is flirting with a bid, only Johanns would be considered a favorite against Kerrey. Johanns would be a heavier favorite against Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or 2006 congressional candidate Scott Kleeb. With Kerrey in the race, Democrats will spend money here. Without Kerrey, this race moves much farther down the list.

6. Maine: (R) Home of two of the most popular senators in the country, Maine is a reliably Democratic state that has elected Republican senators for the past several terms. Senior Sen. Olympia Snowe won her first race with 60%, and has improved in her two re-election bids, winning in 2006 with 74%. Junior Sen. Susan Collins, up in 2008, won her first race with less than 50% of the vote, though she earned 58% in 2002. Still, Democrats got their top recruit -- Rep. Tom Allen -- and both candidates will be well-funded. Early polls have showed Collins running ahead, and her skepticism of the war in Iraq should help her. Allen, however, will not go quietly, and will likely make this one of the nation's top races.

5. Oregon: (R) Incumbent Gordon Smith is used to tough races. Running in a special election in 1996, Smith lost to fellow Sen. Ron Wyden by less than 20,000 votes; he won a regular election later that year by just over 50,000 votes. Smith is a talented politician, and outran a strong candidate in 2002 by 16 points. Democrats, too, failed to recruit their top choices -- Rep. Peter DeFazio and former Gov. John Kitzhaber first among them -- and have settled on State House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Still, Merkley is getting his house in order early (though he faces a primary) and fewer Oregonians will be willing to vote Republican than they were in 2002, a good year for the GOP. Smith's position on Iraq has evolved, and he'll need to hope he's convinced Oregon voters if he wants to hang on.

4. Louisiana: (D) After Hurricane Katrina, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) lost thousands of her voters in Democratic New Orleans. Now, faced with the possibility of Democrat-turned-Republican John Kennedy as her opponent, Landrieu faces the fight of her political life. She's not taking the race lying down, though, and both candidates will have national support and huge bankrolls. If Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) can't get 50% to win the gubernatorial election in the first round of voting, Landrieu's turnout operation works, and she would have a strong chance in 2008. If Jindal wins outright this year, Landrieu's fortunes will take a dramatic downward turn.

3. Colorado: (R -- Open) Like Virginia and New Hampshire (see below), Colorado has trended Democratic of late. The state legislature is now in the hands of Democrats, and Bill Ritter and Ken Salazar have won statewide elections to take over previously Republican seats. Now, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the best candidate Republicans can field, while Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrats' strongest possible choice, has been preparing for the race for years. Udall is more liberal than Ritter and Salazar, but Schaffer is not the best the GOP could do. Udall has raised a bundle of cash, and national Democrats are all but assured that this seat is theirs for the taking.

2. Virginia: (R -- Open) In elections for the Commonwealth's two Senate seats and the governor's mansion, no Republican other than retiring Senator John Warner has won since George Allen beat Chuck Robb in 2000. Now, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D), who remains popular around the state, has jumped in the race to succeed John Warner. A divisive Republican primary would leave the GOP with either conservative former Gov. Jim Gilmore or more moderate Rep. Tom Davis, while Warner's path to the Democratic nomination is clear. No matter the winner of the GOP race, Warner starts out as the heavy favorite.

1. New Hampshire: (R) No state felt the Democratic wave in 2006 as much as New Hampshire did. Democrats picked up more than 80 seats in the State House, won control of the State Senate and kicked out two Republican members of Congress. All that happened as the incumbent Democratic governor won with more than 70%. Early polls show a rematch between former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and Sen. John Sununu, which narrowly went to Sununu six years ago, favoring Shaheen by wide margins. Also six years ago, Republican Craig Benson shared the top of the ticket with Sununu and won the governor's mansion. This year, Democrat John Lynch, whose disapproval ratings have never climbed above 15%, could boost Shaheen's numbers quite a lot.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 08:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Apologies for not posting this last night, but here's my wrap-up of the debate.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 06:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

HANOVER -- Asked whether raising the cap on Social Security taxes would make the system solvent, Joe Biden was blunt: "The answer is yes. No one up here is going to say it."

That's become a familiar refrain for Biden -- the only guy on stage willing to actually tell it like it is. And it works. Biden's blunt talk on everything from Social Security to Iraq takes many aback, in a way that separates him from the field. Unfortunately, blunt-speak is rarely popular, which might explain his low standing in polls.

Biden's reputation is such that the most dangerous place in Washington, it is said, is between Biden and a camera. It is remarkable that someone with so much media experience remains so authentic and blunt, and in a way that is appealing and doesn't come across as false.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

HANOVER -- In a round dominated by foreign policy, no one landed any big shots. Barack Obama and John Edwards tried repeatedly to get into it with Clinton: "Had my judgment prevailed back in 2002, we wouldn't be in this predicament," Obama said of Iraq. Meanwhile, Edwards took a shot at Clinton for saying she would continue combat missions in Iraq, which Clinton parried before Edwards had even finished his answer.

On the left side of the stage -- geographically, not necessarily ideologically -- Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd struggled to distinguish themselves. Biden at times seemed exasperated, urging Russert to include him in the debate.

Meanwhile, where's Obama? After early answers on Iraq, the Illinois Senator, who was reportedly feeling ill before the debate, rarely offered his opinion and hasn't interjected.

Finally, on a night when Clinton is the main target, it seems very appropriate that she is flanked by Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel. It also seems appropriate that, for some reason, there is a boxing ring in the press filing room.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 08:40 PM | Email Author | Permalink

HANOVER -- As Democrats gather at Dartmouth College for the third of six DNC-sponsored debates, a dominant story line of the campaign so far is coming to a close. Like the unwelcome coming of fall, many decried the early start of the primary season. For candidates trailing in money or in polls, the refrain was similar: It's still early. There's plenty of time left to catch up.

With just over three months and just one fundraising quarter left before ballots are cast, tonight's debate marks the beginning of game time. If second-tier candidates don't break out within a very short period of time, they will find themselves little more than footnotes in history.

For two top candidates, the risk of being left behind is also becoming clear in a way it hasn't before. Senator Hillary Clinton, a recent University of New Hampshire/CNN/WMUR poll shows, is solidifying her lead, and now enjoys the support of more than twice as many Democrats as her nearest rival, Senator Barack Obama. Obama and former Senator John Edwards, searching for holes in Clinton's armor, will use tonight to launch more vollies her way.

If they fail, and if Clinton maintains an ever-widening aura of inevitability, Obama and Edwards will find themselves with one fewer chance. Those chances are dwindling fast. And while fans of both will point out, rightly, that 55% of respondents said they were still trying to decide on a candidate, Clinton's lead will be hard to overcome. Even if many are still unwilling to commit, they are leaning toward the New York Senator. Attacks launched tonight will be aimed at dislodging those tentative masses.

The second tier will not allow the debate to become a focus on the trio of front-runners. Each will fire their own salvos, attempt to distinguish themselves in some way and do whatever they can to make it into tomorrow's stories.

Clinton, the undisputed leader of the pack, has much riding on the debate, but if her previous appearances are indicative, she can further stand above the pack. Obama likely has more at stake tonight, as many pundits are beginning to question whether he is anything more than the second-place finisher. But whoever wins tonight, in the eyes of the media and the viewing public, will have scored a point in a contest with increasingly few opportunities to do so.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 08:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Read Tom's post for the details.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven told the AP today he would be a candidate for a third term as governor. Hoeven, a perpetual target for Republicans in Washington looking to recruit Senate candidates, won re-election easily in 2004. If re-elected, Hoeven would be the first governor to be elected to three four-year terms.

State Sen. Tim Mathern (D), writes the AP, is the only Democrat publicly thinking about a race.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher, facing dismal poll numbers showing him down 15 points or more, doesn't need any more bad news. He certainly doesn't need Kentucky Office of Insurance Executive Director Julie McPeak looking for another job because, according to emails, she thinks his re-election prospects are "bleak." And if those emails ever showed up in the Lexington Herald-Leader, it would really rub salt in the wound.

Too late.

Fletcher, likely to lose his seat to former Lieutenant Gov. Steve Beshear (D), just can't catch a break.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:40 PM | Email Author | Permalink

BOSTON -- Former Gov. Mitt Romney is not popular in his adopted state. Polls toward the end of the 2006 gubernatorial campaign, when Romney decided against a second term, showed the public narrowly disapproving of the incumbent, and after months of bashing the state to Republican primary voters around the country, Bay Staters think even worse of him. "He should be impeached," one close friend and Massachusetts native told me, apparently unaware of the requirement that Romney still be in office.

While the former governor is shy about discussing Massachusetts in the primary, if he makes it to the general the message is going to change in a heartbeat, to a much friendlier bipartisan message. Yet there are still things Romney can brag about in Massachusetts, and still things his opponents can hit him on. Yesterday was a perfect example, and proves why the Boston media is one of the toughest crowds in the country.

A recent FBI report showing an increase in violent crime for the past two years spurred the Boston Herald to investigate just how much crime changed while Romney was governor. The results: Not good for Mitt. Murder was up 7.5%, outpacing the national 1.8% increase.

But anyone listening to WBUR, Boston's National Public Radio station, yesterday would have been hard pressed to miss news that new data out of the U.S. Department of Education showed Massachusetts kids scored higher than any other state on three out of four National Assessment of Educational Progress exams, and tied for first on number four. The state also won top honors the last time the test was administered, in 2005, when Romney was in office.

So, does Romney brag about his success in educating Bay State children? Does he defend himself from charges that crime spiked under his watch? Or does he just artfully change the subject and pray no one remembers he's from liberal, lefty Massachusetts?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Happy debate day. As the Democratic candidates wind their way to Hanover, New Hampshire, and as Republicans (minus the four front-runners) prepare to make their way to Baltimore for tomorrow's turn at the microphone, here's what Washington is watching:

-- The House last night passed the compromise State Children's Health Insurance Program by a wide 265-159 margin. While Speaker Nancy Pelosi immediately sent out a release praising its passage, the margin was short of a veto-proof majority, meaning Democrats have to do something to get President Bush to back away from his veto threat. In the Senate, a veto-proof majority exists.

-- Both the House and Senate are in session today, continuing the long road to appropriations passage, as the end of Fiscal Year 2007 draws to a close on Tuesday.

-- Democrats keep the pressure on Republicans on Iraq, as the Senate Appropriations Committee gets a shot at Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte and outgoing Joint Chiefs Chairman Peter Pace, as they testify in support of President Bush's FY08 supplemental request for war funding. Committee members include war opponents Robert Byrd, Patrick Leahy, Tom Harkin, Dianne Feinstein and Jack Reed, all of whom will take their shots.

-- Off the Hill, General Motors and the United Auto Workers reached a deal to end their two-day strike, shifting $51 billion into a union trust fund for retirees' health care. The brief walkout, the first nationwide strike against GM in thirty years, brought statements of support from every Democratic campaign, but as Ben Smith points out, it's lucky for Dems the action only lasted two days. Presidential candidates would not have been able to walk picket lines in Detroit, thanks to the four legitimate early primary states who made candidates sign a pledge saying they wouldn't campaign in Michigan or Florida. Still, with GM plants in 30 states, candidates would have had plenty of opportunities to picket their hearts out.

-- In other union news, former Sen. John Edwards still can't convince the Service Employees to back him. At a board meeting in Chicago on Monday, SEIU again declined to endorse their favorite son, or any preferred offspring, for that matter. A majority of board members favored Edwards, though together they do not represent 60% of the union's members. The union backed former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in 2004 and stuck by the governor through the end of his campaign.

-- The exodus has begun: With four months to go before the first votes are cast, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden is sending virtually his entire campaign staff to Iowa, reports The Fix. Yet another candidate, that means, is banking on a great showing in Iowa; Biden just becomes the first to visibly confirm it. He joins John Edwards, Bill Richardson (to some extent), Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo and Mike Huckabee (notwithstanding Huckabee's trip to New Hampshire later this week) in betting it all on Iowa. The Hawkeye State, unlike many other early states who find their status threatened, is only getting stronger.

-- Speaking of Richardson, in an incredible play to the Netroots, the governor is now running an ad featuring three prominent lefty bloggers (see the ad here). "The media is silent," the ad begins, scratching behind the proverbial ears of every Netroots activist watching television. The ad dropped yesterday, and begins running in some New Hampshire markets today, after columnist David Brooks asserted that bloggers can tell you "almost nothing" about the future of the Democratic Party. The article has probably flooded Brooks' inbox, while bloggers from around the Netroots scream bloody murder.

-- Back to the ads for a minute: USA Today reports that running ads in the primary, already a big business so early in the season, is only going to get moving faster. It's likely, the paper reports, that campaigns will spend more than $100 million on television during the primary. That's a spicy meatball.

-- Keep an eye on this one: The Washington Post picks up on the idea that outgoing Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns is abandoning his post just as the farm bill comes before Congress. Johanns foe Hal Daub, a former Omaha Mayor and member of Congress, already criticized the Secretary for not sticking it out (2nd release down), as has the Nebraska Democratic Party. If the argument sticks, Johanns' Republican primary opponents, and his Democratic general election opponent, if he gets that far, will hammer away as much as possible.

-- Good Move Or Bad Move Of The Day: Offered an interview with President Bush, National Public Radio said thanks, but no thanks. The White House had urged NPR to let top political analyst Juan WIlliams, who is African American, interview Bush on the 50th anniversary of the Little Rock 9 school desegregation. NPR was upset that the White House had tried to pick their own interviewer, while Williams told Howie Kurtz he was "stunned by the decision to turn their backs on [Bush] and to turn their backs on me." The interview will air instead on Fox News. Good move? Bad move? At least it was a gutsy move.

-- Today On The Trail: Barack Obama holds one of the few pre-debate events when two Peterborough residents throw him a house party this morning. Rudy Giuliani sits down with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani today in New York, followed by two events in New Jersey, while Mitt Romney is still in California holding "Ask Mitt Anything" forums in Long Beach. Also today, the third annual Clinton Global Initiative opens in New York, hosted by former President Bill Clinton.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:10 AM | Email Author | Permalink

MANCHESTER -- A poll out today, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center for CNN and WMUR-TV, shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton solidifying her lead on the eve of the latest Democratic debate, to be held tomorrow at Dartmouth College in Hanover.

Perhaps as important as her lead in the primary, the results show that Clinton's biggest weakness -- her perceived inability to win a general -- is not a concern among Democratic primary voters, a majority of whom name her as most likely to beat the GOP nominee. Given that Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards are all virtually equally seen in a favorable light, primary voters look as if they are going with the electable candidate, in Clinton, over Obama and Edwards, both of whom are seen as more likeable.

The poll, taken September 17-24, surveyed 307 respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary. The margin of error is +/- 5.5%.

Democrats
Clinton 43 (+7 from 7/07 poll)
Obama 20 (-7)
Edwards 12 (+3)
Richardson 6 (-5)
Biden 3 (-1)
Kuchinich 3 (nc)
Dodd 1 (+1)
Gravel 0 (nc)

Democrats (w/Gore)
Clinton 41 (+8)
Obama 19 (-6)
Edwards 11 (+3)
Gore 7 (-1)
Richardson 6 (-4)
Biden 3 (nc)
Kucinich 3 (nc)
Dodd 1 (+1)
Gravel 0 (nc)

Which Candidate Is Most Likeable?
Obama 39
Edwards 27
Clinton 15
Richardson 6

Which Candidate Has Best Chance Of Beating GOP Nominee?
Clinton 54
Obama 13
Edwards 8
Gore 8

Which Candidate Has Right Experience To Be President?
Clinton 47
Gore 14
Edwards 8
Obama 8

Which Candidate Is Most Likely To Bring Needed Change?
Clinton 36
Obama 24
Edwards 8
Gore 7

Fav/Unfav
Obama 78/11
Clinton 77/15
Edwards 76/10
Gore 73/19
Richardson 53/14
Biden 45/20
Dodd 40/23
Kucinich 31/27
Gravel 7/23

Posted by Reid Wilson at 04:05 PM | Email Author | Permalink

MANCHESTER -- As the Northeast undergoes an early fall heat wave, Democrats prepare to descend on the Granite State for tomorrow's MSNBC-sponsored debate from Dartmouth. Voters here, having endured close to a year of campaigning already, are stoically entrenched, preparing for the onslaught the next three months will bring.

Customers at the Red Arrow Diner, just down the street from Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's district office and Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta's re-election headquarters, are so accustomed to out-of-town reporters dropping in for a sandwich that the waiters make them sign a guest book. Apparently, however, Politics Nation is not well-enough known (yet) to merit a notice.

When stopping into the Red Arrow, if a customer values their health, they won't call the young lady who serves them "ma'am." Politics Nation learned that lesson the hard way, when she threatened to deck us for the slur. Our apologies.

More updates from New Hampshire as events warrant.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

As Blake notes today, with the fundraising quarter ending this weekend, campaigns are getting heavily involved in the expectations game. Money numbers make for excellent news copy, and the mainstream media has its own questions for which they will seek answers. Among them:

-- How big will the drop-off be? One campaign spokesman said recently that the third quarter is an historically bad time to raise money. It's the summer, everyone's on vacation. But when $100 million was raised, by Democrats alone, during the first six months, we should still see some pretty big numbers. Low-hanging fruit is gone, the big donors have maxed out, and even bundlers not named Hsu are running out of friends to call.

-- Who wins the Democratic expectations game? Clinton's camp expects to hit between $17-20 million, while putting Obama's numbers at a probably unreachable $30 million. If Obama outraises Clinton for a second quarter in a row (third, if you don't count the $10 million Clinton transfered over from her Senate account), will more people begin to buy the idea of a long campaign that stretches into late February or even March?

-- Can either John McCain or Mike Huckabee impress enough to get on a few more radar screens? (See the NYT for top-notch analysis) McCain's disappointing -- to say the least -- second quarter cash-on-hand number has to come way up, while Huckabee's strong showing at the straw poll in Ames means expectations are on him to top the seven-figure mark for the quarter, something he hasn't done yet.

-- Whither Fred Thompson? Missing fundraising expectations in his first month of campaigning hurt, and worked to tamp down the myth of Thompson as knight in shining armor. Does he have to come in third, behind Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, to stay relevant? Or should we all start buying the Thompson to withdraw contract at RCP's Fantasy '08? Thompson does have a big upside, though. He's scheduled five fundraisers in Tennessee, and while, as mentioned above, other candidates have exhausted their low-hanging fruit, Thompson's still got plenty ripe for the picking. While other candidates have down quarters, Thompson's could be decidedly impressive, especially by comparison.

-- How much lighter will Mitt Romney's wallet be? The former Massachusetts governor gave his campaign about $9 million in the first half of the year, including $6 million in the second quarter to pay for early advertisements. Will he continue to dip into his personal reserves to give himself a big leg up, or is he waiting for the fourth quarter, when he can do so more efficiently to react to a rapidly-changing situation?

-- Who's got the final leg up? Cash on hand, as AP's Jim Kuhnhenn writes, is the number to watch. The campaigns have just three months to go before the first nominating contests, and while several have run their first ads (Kuhnhenn reports the Democratic Iowa numbers: Obama, $2.7 million so far; Clinton, $1 million; Richardson, $2 million), everyone starts the cash dump pretty soon. Media buyers, beware: Your phones will be ringing off the hook.

-- Who is thinking strategically about responses? Some campaigns are going to have to go very negative to cut down their rivals. If campaigns have the money to hold back, might McCain save an ad defending his immigration record? What about Romney fighting off the very word "Massachusetts"? Thompson not remembering Terri Schiavo? Perhaps the biggest challenge is Giuliani's: He's got to deal with GOP voters' anger when they hear about his record on gays, abortions and guns (especially now that the NRA is considering getting involved in the GOP primary). Of course, this question isn't answered by 3rd quarter FEC numbers alone, but outlines will begin to form.

Candidates are laying low lately, making the mad dash for cash in the final days before the quarter ends. How they answer the questions above may well determine who's still raising money in the first quarter of 2008, and who's simply trying to get rid of debt.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Off to the Granite State this morning, so here are last night's morning thoughts:

-- The Senate tomorrow takes up the Defense Department authorization again. Senator Joe Biden, who now has more endorsements from Iowa state legislators than any other Democrat aside from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, finally gets a vote on his amendment to partition Iraq, albeit in a non-binding vote.

-- In the House, Congressman Adam Smith has a busy day. The Washington State Democrat is managing three bills on the House floor, including resolutions expressing support for Latin American countries who have already dealt with three major hurricanes this year, condemning the UN Human Rights Council for unfairly criticizing Israel, and his signature issue, the Global Poverty Act. The House also deals with the compromise between the two chambers on the State Children's Health Insurance Program; President Bush has yet to back off his veto threat.

-- Former Senator Fred Thompson, after forgetting who Terri Schaivo is and after James Dobson told friends he wouldn't support Thompson, is having trouble wooing Southern Conservatives. Still, it helps when Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission President Richard Land is on Thompson's side. "I've received phone calls and emails from Southern Baptists about Senator Thompson," Land wrote. "They are all furious at Doctor Dobson," according to CBN's David Brody.

-- Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney exploited Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinijad's visit to New York as much as possible, with new radio ads in Iowa and South Carolina pointing out that Romney refused security for former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami when he visited Harvard during Romney's tenure as governor. "Now another Iranian President is visiting America," the ad says. "Coming to New York, and Governor Mitt Romney is leading the opposition." Not a bad way to get press even as every other candidate is criticizing the visit.

-- Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani is trying to get in on the action.

-- On the Democratic side, Senator Hillary Clinton yesterday announced the endorsement of Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, an automatic front-runner for Vice President. Trying to keep up, and doing a better than average job, Illinois Senator Barack Obama announced support from former Iowa Democratic Party chairman Gordon Fischer. Bayh sent representatives to work for state legislative candidates in 2006, though with FIscher's connection to state party activists, he may be an equal, if not more valuable, endorsement.

-- Local Video Game Angle Of The Day: "Halo 3" comes out at midnight tonight, and Seattle-centric Microsoft says it expects to make about $200 million ... in the next 24 hours. If you're a Northwest native, you might recognize a certain mountain featured in the game. It's Mount Rainier, according to Seattle Times columnist Brier Dudley. Yes, he says, it's supposed to be Kilimanjaro, but the resemblance is more than coincidence.

-- Today On The Trail: Senator Clinton and ex-Senator John Edwards are in Iowa at a "Change to Win" rally, while Sen. Barack Obama attends a low-dollar fundraiser in Portland, Maine. Bill Richardson is still in New York, fundraising. On the GOP side, Senator John McCain fundraises in Houston, while Mitt Romney continues his California tour in Bakersfield. Meanwhile, Bolivian President Evo Morales joins Jon Stewart on The Daily Show.

-- Next update coming from Manchester, so check back with Politics Nation for breaking news from New Hampshire and the latest leading up to Wednesday's Democratic Presidential debate.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 06:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

To critics, President Bush's address to the nation on September 13th made little news other than the expected request for more time in Iraq. To supporters, the address was an important affirmation of a strategy that is working.

But in at least one sense, the speech was groundbreaking. FishbowlDC points out the speech was the first presidential address broadcast in high definition. Turns out the feed had a bit of a problem, though, and it was only because HDNews subscribed to NBC's pool feed and plugged directly into the pool drop at the White House that the event was recorded for posterity.

A cool "did you know," maybe, but we doubt the fact the speech was in high-def will end up as a chapter in Mr. Bush's autobiography.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink