A resolution declaring that the Ottoman-era killing of Armenians was genocide appears likely to be approved by a congressional committee, a move that could alienate Turkey, a NATO ally important to U.S. interests in the Middle East and Afghanistan.
The House Foreign Affairs Committee was expected to endorse the resolution Thursday, sending it to the full House, where prospects for passage are uncertain. Even if the measure does not go beyond the committee, Turkey warns it could jeopardize U.S-Turkish cooperation and set back negotiations aimed at opening the border between Turkey and Armenia.
The United States relies on Turkey as a key supply route for U.S. troops in Iraq and its troops serve in the U.S.-led coalition forces in Afghanistan. The United States also is pressing Turkey, which holds a rotating seat in the U.N. Security Council, to support sanctions against Iran, Turkey's neighbor.
The Foreign Affairs Committee approved a similar measure in 2007, but it was not brought to the House floor for a vote after intensive pressure from the Bush administration. This time, the Obama administration has taken no public position.
Following the 2007 committee vote, Turkey promptly recalled its ambassador, and U.S. officials feared passage by the full House might prompt the Turks to cut off American access to a Turkish air base essential to operations in Iraq.
The committee vote could prompt Turkey to recall its ambassador again. Asked Thursday if his country would call home its envoy if the measure is approved, a Turkish official said all options were being considered. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu says the resolution could damage Turkish-U.S. ties and undermine reconciliation efforts with Armenia.
"If it passes, then the Obama administration should try to prevent it from being voted by Congress," Turkey's state-run Anatolia news agency quoted the Turkish foreign minister as saying.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she will wait to see the result of the committee vote before deciding whether to bring the resolution before the full House.
Armenian-American groups for decades have sought congressional affirmation of the killings as genocide. Historians estimate that up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed by Ottoman Turks around the time of World War I, an event widely viewed by scholars as the first genocide of the 20th century. Turkey denies that the deaths constituted genocide, saying the toll has been inflated and those killed were victims of civil war and unrest.
In April, Obama broke a campaign promise to brand the killings genocide in an annual White House statement on the day marking Armenian remembrance. Obama said that while he had not changed his views, he did not want to upset promising talks between Turkey and Armenia on improving relations and opening their border. Turkey sealed the border in 1993 to protest Armenia's war with neighboring Azerbaijan.
In October, Turkey and Armenia signed an agreement to normalize relations, but Turkey has yet to ratify it. As progress toward a breakthrough between the two countries appears stalled, it may be harder for the Obama administration to oppose the resolution or refrain from calling the killings genocide in this year's statement.