Study Looks at How Long Newspapers Can Survive
Wiseguys in the industry have been telling publishers for years that if they are wondering where their readers are going to check the obituary pages of their newspapers.
It's that simple, really. Older generations grew up reading newspapers and depend on them for news and information, while younger generations are growing up on the Internet and depend on it to get their news and information.
Using that basic premise, one of the industry's wiser wiseguys, Alan D. Mutter, has put together an eye-opening peek at where newspapers can expect to be a few decades from now.
The view, depending on the lens through which you are viewing it, is predictably bleak.
Mutter opens his two-part series by typing simply, "Actuarially speaking, the population of print newspaper readers will drop by nearly a third within 15 years and probably less than half the size it is today by the time 2040 rolls around."
Mutter reasons, that "unless something unforeseeable happens to change the news-consumption habits of younger readers, it stands to reason that the total audience of newspaper readers will shrink as the older generation dies off."
That is close to being impossible to argue with, though Mutter's "unless something unforeseeable happens" caveat is a fairly significant one to his thought-provoking thesis.
Going back in time 15 years, was there anybody out there who really understood the tsunami-like impact the Internet would have on the newspaper industry? I know I didn't run into any.
And 30 years ago, pagination and its impact on newsrooms and not so much readers, was the next big thing everybody was grumbling about. The Internet wasn't even a glimmer in Al Gore's eye.
Who's to say what the next big news-provider will be in the coming years? Could something replace the Internet? Doubtful. Will things be different? Count on it.
Heck, maybe there will will be an epiphany among the younger generations, and they will turn away in revolt and anger from the garbage that piles up every day on the Internet, and return to the wholesomeness and comforts of newspapers. Then again maybe there's a better chance Santa Claus will come down your chimney to deliver you that paper each day.
The basic point is, it is impossible to predict the future.
It Might Even Be Worse
Frankly, I agree with many of the excellent comments that follow Mutter's first-day piece.
Many of these folks seem to think that he has painted a rather rosy scenario for newspapers. Most argue, correctly in my view, that readers are turning away from newspapers and going to the Internet at an accelerating pace. Following that line of thinking, the demise of newspapers will only quicken.
As a long-time newspaper guy, my fingers hurt just typing that.
So, with their newspapers crumbling all around them, why are publishers still bravely donning their hardhats and firing up their presses at all?
M-O-N-E-Y.
Isn't that always the answer?
At least the print industry has an established model for generating profit. If these publishers up and dumped print, Mutter points out, they would lose about 95 percent of their revenue.
Until, and if, some cyber-genius comes up with a viable way to wrap the news they are distributing on the 'net with wads of advertising dollars, many publishers will hold onto their dying print franchises and most likely take them to the cemetery with their readers.