RealClearPolitics

RCP Senate Scorecard

RCP Senate Averages

Dems Need Six For Control

RCP Avgs: Dems + 6

---------------------------------

TOSS UPS

MO: Talent (R) | Chart

MT: Burns (R) | Chart

VA: Allen (R) | Chart

MD: Open (D) | Chart

RI: Chafee (R) | Chart
LEANS DEMOCRAT

NJ: Menendez (D) | Chart
LEANS REPUBLICAN

AZ: Kyl (R) | Chart

TN: Open (R) | Chart
LIKELY DEMOCRAT

MN: Open (D) | Chart

MI: Stabenow (D) | Chart

OH: DeWine (R) | Chart

PA: Santorum (R) | Chart

WA: Cantwell (D) | Chart
LIKELY LIEBERMAN

CT: Lieberman (I) | Chart

RCP House Scorecard

RCP Generic Average

Dems Need 15 For Control

-------GOP HELD SEATS-------

LEANS DEMOCRAT (13)

TX-22: Open (DeLay)

AZ-8: Open (Kolbe)

FL-16: Open (Foley)

IN-8: Hostettler

PA-10: Sherwood

CO-7: Open (Beauprez)

OH-18: Open (Ney)

PA-7: Weldon

NY-24: Open (Boehlert)

IA-1: Open (Nussle)

NC-11: Taylor

NY-20: Sweeney

OH-15: Pryce
TOSS UPS (14)

NM-1: Wilson

IN-2: Chocola

IN-9: Sodrel

CT-4: Shays

PA-6: Gerlach

IL-6: Open (Hyde)

MN-6: Open (Kennedy)

FL-13: Open (Harris)

CT-5: Johnson

NH-2: Bass

AZ-5: Hayworth

CA-11: Pombo

OH-1: Chabot

OH-2: Schmidt

KY-3: Northup
LEANS REPUBLICAN (20)

FL-22: Shaw

NY-26: Reynolds

CT-2: Simmons

WA-8: Reichert

WI-8: Open (Green)

VA-2: Drake

NY-25: Walsh

CO-4: Musgrave

KY-4: Davis

PA-8: Fitzpatrick

AZ-1: Renzi

NV-2: Open (Gibbons)

NY-29: Kuhl

NY-19: Kelly

CA-4: Doolittle

PA-4: Hart

NV-3: Porter

MN-1: Gutknecht

ID-1: Sali
-------DEM HELD SEATS-------
TOSS UPS (2)

GA-12: Barrow

GA-8: Marshall
LEANS DEMOCRAT (4)

IL-8: Bean

VT-AL: Open (Sanders)

IA-3: Boswell

IN-7: Carson

RCP Governor Summary

RCP Governor Snapshot

TOSS UPS

MD: Ehrlich* vs O'Malley

MN: Pawlenty* vs Hatch

NV: Gibbons vs Titus

ID: Otter vs Brady
LEANS DEMOCRAT

IL: Topinka vs Blagojevich*

IA: Nussle vs Culver

MI: DeVos vs Granholm*

ME: Woodcock vs Baldacci*

OR: Saxton vs Kulongoski*

WI: Green vs Doyle*
LEANS REPUBLICAN

AK: Palin vs Knowles

FL: Crist vs Davis

RI: Carcieri* vs Fogarty
LIKELY DEMOCRAT

AR: Hutchinson vs Beebe

CO: Beauprez vs Ritter

MA: Healey vs Patrick

NY: Faso vs Spitzer

OH: Blackwell vs Strickland

PA: Swann vs Rendell*

TN: Bryson vs Bredesen*
LIKELY REPUBLICAN

CA: Arnold S.* vs Angelides

GA: Perdue* vs Taylor

TX: Perry* vs Bell

MORE GOVERNOR RACES

AL, CT, HI, KS, MO, NH, NM, OK, SC, SD, WY

Bush Job Approval at 39.0

Generic Ballot: Dems +11.5

Right Dir/Wrong Dir: -27.5

Congress Approval at 30.0

Final RCP Poll Average

Final Bush-Kerry Graph

Final Electoral Projection

Map of Results by County

Battleground State Avgs

Election 2006 Latest Polls

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Saturday, October 07
Race	Poll	Period	Sample	Results	Spread
Iowa Governor Race	Rasmussen	10/05 - 10/05	500 LV	Nussle (R) 45% , Culver (D) 44%	Nussle +1.0%
Generic Congressional Ballot	Newsweek	10/05 - 10/06	624 LV	GOP (R) 39% , Dems (D) 51%	Dems +12.0%
California Governor Race	Pub Op Str (R)	10/03 - 10/05	800 LV	Arnold S. (R) 46% , Angelides (D) 33%	Arnold S. +13.0%
Texas Governor Race	Opinion Analysts	09/28 - 10/02	603 LV	Perry (R) 33% , Bell (D) 14%	Perry +19.0%
Maryland Senate Race	VC Research (R)	09/27 - 09/28	602 LV	Steele (R) 39% , Cardin (D) 44%	Cardin +5.0%

Friday, October 06
Race	Poll	Period	Sample	Results	Spread
North Carolina - 8	OnPoint (D)	10/04 - 10/04	594 LV	Hayes (R) 47% , Kissell (D) 46%	Hayes +1.0%
Minnesota Senate Race	Rasmussen	10/04 - 10/04	500 LV	Kennedy (R) 40% , Klobuchar (D) 57%	Klobuchar +17.0%
Minnesota Governor Race	Rasmussen	10/04 - 10/04	500 LV	Pawlenty (R) 46% , Hatch (D) 50%	Hatch +4.0%
Florida - 13	Hamilton Beattie (D)	10/03 - 10/04	400 LV	Buchanan (R) 38% , Jennings (D) 50%	Jennings +12.0%
Massachusetts Governor Race	Suffolk	10/02 - 10/04	500 LV	Healey (R) 28% , Patrick (D) 49%	Patrick +21.0%
Generic Congressional Ballot	Democracy Corps (D)	10/01 - 10/03	1000 LV	GOP (R) 41% , Dems (D) 51%	Dems +10.0%
Maryland Senate Race	USA Today/Gallup	09/27 - 10/01	678 LV	Steele (R) 39% , Cardin (D) 54%	Cardin +15.0%
Missouri Senate Race	USA Today/Gallup	09/27 - 10/01	577 LV	Talent (R) 45% , McCaskill (D) 48%	McCaskill +3.0%
New Jersey Senate Race	USA Today/Gallup	09/27 - 10/01	542 LV	Kean (R) 43% , Menendez (D) 46%	Menendez +3.0%
Rhode Island Senate Race	USA Today/Gallup	09/27 - 10/01	699 LV	Chafee (R) 39% , Whitehouse (D) 50%	Whitehouse +11.0%
Rhode Island Governor Race	USA Today/Gallup	09/27 - 10/01	699 LV	Carcieri (R) 47% , Fogarty (D) 46%	Carcieri +1.0%
Tennessee Senate Race	USA Today/Gallup	09/27 - 10/01	598 LV	Corker (R) 45% , Ford (D) 50%	Ford +5.0%
Tennessee Governor Race	USA Today/Gallup	09/27 - 10/01	598 LV	Bryson (R) 26% , Bredesen (D) 66%	Bredesen +40.0%
Virginia Senate Race	USA Today/Gallup	09/27 - 10/01	597 LV	Allen (R) 48% , Webb (D) 45%	Allen +3.0%
Maryland Governor Race	USA Today/Gallup	09/27 - 10/01	678 LV	Ehrlich (R) 41% , O'Malley (D) 53%	O'Malley +12.0%
Arizona Governor Race	Behavior Res. Ctr	09/26 - 10/03	625 LV	Munsil (R) 24% , Napolitano (D) 58%	Napolitano +34.0%
Generic Congressional Ballot	Battleground	09/24 - 09/27	1000 LV	GOP (R) 41% , Dems (D) 49%	Dems +8.0%

Thursday, October 05
Race	Poll	Period	Sample	Results	Spread
Michigan Governor Race	Rasmussen	10/04 - 10/04	500 LV	DeVos (R) 44% , Granholm (D) 52%	Granholm +8.0%
Michigan Senate Race	Rasmussen	10/04 - 10/04	500 LV	Bouchard (R) 40% , Stabenow (D) 57%	Stabenow +17.0%
Ohio Governor Race	Rasmussen	10/03 - 10/03	500 LV	Blackwell (R) 40% , Strickland (D) 52%	Strickland +12.0%
Connecticut Governor Race	Rasmussen	10/03 - 10/03	550 LV	Rell (R) 58% , DeStefano (D) 33%	Rell +25.0%
Generic Congressional Ballot	Time	10/03 - 10/04	1002 A	GOP (R) 39% , Dems (D) 54%	Dems +15.0%
New York - 26	Greenberg Quinlan (D)	10/03 - 10/04	522 LV	Reynolds (R) 42% , Davis (D) 50%	Davis +8.0%
Michigan Senate Race	Detroit News	10/03 - 10/04	600 LV	Bouchard (R) 35% , Stabenow (D) 48%	Stabenow +13.0%
Michigan Governor Race	Detroit News	10/03 - 10/04	600 LV	DeVos (R) 40% , Granholm (D) 46%	Granholm +6.0%
Maryland Senate Race	Pub Op Str (R)	10/02 - 10/04	800 RV	Steele (R) 43% , Cardin (D) 47%	Cardin +4.0%
Generic Congressional Ballot	AP-Ipsos	10/02 - 10/04	741 LV	GOP (R) 41% , Dems (D) 51%	Dems +10.0%
New York - 26	SurveyUSA	10/02 - 10/04	482 LV	Reynolds (R) 45% , Davis (D) 50%	Davis +5.0%
Washington-2	SurveyUSA	10/02 - 10/04	483 LV	Roulstone (R) 35% , Larsen (D) 60%	Larsen +25.0%
Wisconsin Governor Race	Research 2000	10/02 - 10/04	600 LV	Green (R) 42% , Doyle (D) 48%	Doyle +6.0%
New Jersey Senate Race	Strategic Vision (R)	09/29 - 10/01	800 LV	Kean (R) 46% , Menendez (D) 41%	Kean +5.0%
New Jersey Senate Race	Fairleigh Dickinson	09/27 - 10/02	514 LV	Kean (R) 39% , Menendez (D) 46%	Menendez +7.0%
New York Senate Race	Quinnipiac	09/26 - 10/01	1263 LV	Spencer (R) 31% , Clinton (D) 66%	Clinton +35.0%
Arizona Senate Race	Behavior Res. Ctr	09/26 - 10/03	625 LV	Kyl (R) 45% , Pederson (D) 36%	Kyl +9.0%
Texas Governor Race	Dallas Mng. News	09/26 - 10/03	828 LV	Perry (R) 38% , Bell (D) 15%	Perry +23.0%
Tennessee Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	604 LV	Corker (R) 40% , Ford (D) 40%	Tie
Connecticut Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	601 LV	Lieberman (I) 53% , Lamont (D) 33%	Lieberman (I) +20.0%
Virginia Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	601 LV	Allen (R) 48% , Webb (D) 37%	Allen +11.0%
Maryland Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	600 LV	Steele (R) 37% , Cardin (D) 45%	Cardin +8.0%
Missouri Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	601 LV	Talent (R) 43% , McCaskill (D) 39%	Talent +4.0%
Montana Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	607 LV	Burns (R) 42% , Tester (D) 46%	Tester +4.0%
New Jersey Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	600 LV	Kean (R) 35% , Menendez (D) 46%	Menendez +11.0%
Ohio Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	601 LV	DeWine (R) 41% , Brown (D) 41%	Tie
Pennsylvania Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	602 LV	Santorum (R) 36% , Casey (D) 48%	Casey +12.0%
Rhode Island Senate Race	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	601 LV	Chafee (R) 41% , Whitehouse (D) 45%	Whitehouse +4.0%
Generic Congressional Ballot	Pew Research	09/21 - 10/04	1804 A	GOP (R) 38% , Dems (D) 51%	Dems +13.0%

Wednesday, October 04
Race	Poll	Period	Sample	Results	Spread
Connecticut Senate Race	Rasmussen	10/03 - 10/03	550 LV	Lieberman (I) 51% , Lamont (D) 40%	Lieberman (I) +11.0%
Missouri Senate Race	Rasmussen	10/03 - 10/03	500 LV	Talent (R) 46% , McCaskill (D) 47%	McCaskill +1.0%
Ohio Senate Race	Rasmussen	10/03 - 10/03	500 LV	DeWine (R) 43% , Brown (D) 50%	Brown +7.0%
Florida Senate Race	Rasmussen	10/02 - 10/02	500 LV	Harris (R) 37% , Nelson (D) 54%	Nelson +17.0%
Connecticut-5	American Viewpt. (R)	10/01 - 10/02	400 LV	Johnson (R) 52% , Murphy (D) 42%	Johnson +10.0%
New York Governor Race	Quinnipiac	09/26 - 10/01	1263 LV	Faso (R) 21% , Spitzer (D) 73%	Spitzer +52.0%
Arizona-8	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Graf (R) 37% , Giffords (D) 45%	Giffords +8.0%
Colorado - 7	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	O Donnell (R) 34% , Perlmutter (D) 45%	Perlmutter +11.0%
Connecticut-2	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Simmons (R) 44% , Courtney (D) 41%	Simmons +3.0%
Connecticut - 4	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Shays (R) 41% , Farrell (D) 46%	Farrell +5.0%
Illinois - 6	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Roskam (R) 38% , Duckworth (D) 43%	Duckworth +5.0%
Indiana - 2	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Chocola (R) 39% , Donnelly (D) 49%	Donnelly +10.0%
Indiana - 9	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Sodrel (R) 38% , Hill (D) 46%	Hill +8.0%
Iowa - 1	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Whalen (R) 47% , Braley (D) 34%	Whalen +13.0%
Kentucky - 4	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Davis (R) 42% , Lucas (D) 36%	Davis +6.0%
Minnesota - 6	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Bachmann (R) 46% , Wetterling (D) 43%	Bachmann +3.0%
New Mexico-1	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Wilson (R) 40% , Madrid (D) 50%	Madrid +10.0%
North Carolina - 11	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Taylor (R) 40% , Shuler (D) 51%	Shuler +11.0%
Ohio - 18	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Padgett (R) 36% , Space (D) 45%	Space +9.0%
Pennsylvania - 6	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Gerlach (R) 41% , Murphy (D) 43%	Murphy +2.0%
Virginia - 2	Reuters/Zogby	09/25 - 10/02	500 LV	Drake (R) 42% , Kellam (D) 46%	Kellam +4.0%
Connecticut-5	Westhill Consulting (D)	09/25 - 09/27	500 LV	Johnson (R) 42% , Murphy (D) 42%	Tie
Oregon Governor Race	Riley Research	09/20 - 09/29	471 LV	Saxton (R) 39% , Kulongoski (D) 37%	Saxton +2.0%

Tuesday, October 03
Race	Poll	Period	Sample	Results	Spread
Florida Governor Race	Rasmussen	10/02 - 10/02	500 LV	Crist (R) 55% , Davis (D) 40%	Crist +15.0%
Florida - 16	RT Strategies/CD	10/01 - 10/01	1003 LV	Foley/Negron (R) 46% , Mahoney (D) 49%	Mahoney +3.0%
Florida - 16	RT Strategies/CD	10/01 - 10/01	1001 LV	Foley/Negron (R) 43% , Mahoney (D) 50%	Mahoney +7.0%
Generic Congressional Ballot	NBC/WSJ	09/30 - 10/02	805 RV	GOP (R) 39% , Dems (D) 48%	Dems +9.0%
Generic Congressional Ballot	CNN	09/29 - 10/02	548 LV	GOP (R) 42% , Dems (D) 53%	Dems +11.0%
Montana - At Large	Mason-Dixon	09/26 - 09/28	625 RV	Rehberg (R) 53% , Lindeen (D) 33%	Rehberg +20.0%
Arkansas Governor Race	Opinion Research	09/26 - 09/30	500 LV	Hutchinson (R) 35% , Beebe (D) 53%	Beebe +18.0%
California Governor Race	San Jose State	09/26 - 09/30	585 LV	Arnold S. (R) 46% , Angelides (D) 33%	Arnold S. +13.0%
Tennessee Governor Race	Mason-Dixon	09/25 - 09/27	625 LV	Bryson (R) 22% , Bredesen (D) 63%	Bredesen +41.0%
Connecticut - 4	Univ. of Connecticut	09/25 - 10/01	753 LV	Shays (R) 46% , Farrell (D) 41%	Shays +5.0%
New Mexico Governor Race	Alb. Journal	09/25 - 09/28	664 LV	Dendahl (R) 28% , Richardson (D) 60%	Richardson +32.0%
New Mexico Senate Race	Alb. Journal	09/25 - 09/28	664 LV	McCullough (R) 19% , Bingaman (D) 65%	Bingaman +46.0%
Utah Senate Race	Deseret News	09/25 - 09/28	922 RV	Hatch (R) 62% , Ashdown (D) 25%	Hatch +37.0%
Pennsylvania - 10	Lycoming College	09/24 - 09/28	804 LV	Sherwood (R) 38% , Carney (D) 47%	Carney +9.0%
Tennessee Senate Race	Middle Tn. State U.	09/19 - 09/30	549 LV	Corker (R) 43% , Ford (D) 42%	Corker +1.0%
Tennessee Governor Race	Middle Tn. State U.	09/19 - 09/30	549 LV	Bryson (R) 21% , Bredesen (D) 59%	Bredesen +38.0%

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