With the recent announcement that Lincoln Davis and John Tanner - both no votes in November - will remain no votes today, it is pretty clear now that the Stupak bloc is critical for passage. The Hill identifies 39 members who have indicated some form of opposition to the bill, and it includes Kathy Dahlkemper as an undecided vote (she's believed to be a Stupak Democrat) for a total of 40 votes. Meanwhile, the number of undecided non-Stupak Democrats is down to just three (by my count): Jim Cooper, Paul Kanjorski, and Loretta Sanchez.

What this means is very simple. If the Democrats win the Stupak bloc, they get passage. If they lose the Stupak bloc, they don't get passage.

MSNBC reported earlier that the leadership had made a deal with Stupak. Though this has been walked back, most reports I've seen suggest that a deal is just about at hand.

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-Jay Cost