Updated 11:00 PM 3/15

The last post on this subject was getting a little unwieldy, so I've moved over to this page and removed some votes that I think the leadership will hold. For details on the methodology, see the last post.

Current Categories (As of 11:00 PM 3/15)
     Democrats Who Voted Nay in November
          Very Hard to Persuade: 28
          Hard to Persuade: 4
          Persuadable: 5
     Democrats Who Voted Yea in November
          Suggested Might Now Vote Nay (Possible Stupak Democrats Noted with *): 20

The leadership can afford 37 defections and still pass the bill, assuming that all Republicans vote no.

Very hard to persuade

1. John Adler (NJ-3) communication)
2. Jason Altmire (PA-4) (communication)
3. John Barrow (GA-12) (communication)
4. Dan Boren (OK-2) (communication)
5. Rick Boucher (VA-9) (communication)
6. Allen Boyd (FL-2) (communication)
7. Bobby Bright (AL-2) (communication)
8. Ben Chandler (KY-6) (communication)
9. Travis Childers (MS-1) (McCain won 62%)
10. Artur Davis (AL-7) (communication)
11. Lincoln Davis (TN-4) (McCain won 64%)
12. Chet Edwards (TX-17) (communication)
13. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL) (communication)
14. Tim Holden (PA-17) (communication)
15. Larry Kissell (NC-8) (communication)
16. Frank Kratovil (MD-1) (communication)
17. Dennis Kucinich (OH-10) (communication)
18. Jim Marshall (GA-8) (communication)
19. Mike McIntyre (NC-7) (communication)
20. Mike McMahon (NY-13) (communication)
21. Charlie Melancon (LA-3) (communication)
22. Walt Minnick (ID-1) (communication)
23. Collin Peterson (MN-7) (communication)
24. Mike Ross (AR-4) (communication)
25. Heath Shuler (NC-11) (communication)
26. Ike Skelton (MO-4) (communication)
27. John Tanner (TN-8) (communication)
28. Gene Taylor (MS-4) (communication)

The only potentially controversial person in this group is Altmire. Others have him undecided or even firm yes. I've been watching Jason Altmire very closely. I'm comfortable with this categorization.

Hard to persuade

1. Betsy Markey (CO-4) (Cook rates toss-up)
2. Jim Matheson (UT-2) (McCain won 58%)
3. Glenn Nye (VA-2) (Cook rates toss-up)
4. Harry Teague (NM-2) (Cook rates toss-up)

The Hill puts Teague and Matheson in the negative column, though I have not seen much from these members. The Weekly Standard has a post suggesting that Nye will be a hard get.

Persuadable

1. Brian Baird (WA-3)
2. John Boccieri (OH-16)
3. Bart Gordon (TN-6)
4. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
5. Scott Murphy (NY-20)

Note that Boccieri skipped Obama's rally in Ohio on Monday.

Democrats who voted yes who might now change their minds (* indicates potential Stupak defector)

1. Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
2. Marion Berry (AR-1)*
3. Shelley Berkley (NV-1)
4. Tim Bishop (NY-1)
5. Dennis Cardoza (CA-18)
6. Chris Carney (PA-10)*
7. Jerry Costello (IL-12)*
8. Henry Cuellar (TX-27)* (he has since softened the stance he took with IBD)
9. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3)*
10. Joe Donnelly (IN-2)*
11. Steve Driehaus (OH-1)*
12. Brad Ellsworth (IN-8)*
13. Baron Hill (IN-9)
14. Steve Kagen (WI-9)
15. Dan Lipinski (IL-3)*
16. Dan Maffei (NY-25)
17. Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
18. Kurt Schrader (OR-5)
19. Bart Stupak (MI-1)*
20. Dina Titus (NV-3)

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