About this Blog
About The Author
Email Me

RealClearPolitics HorseRaceBlog

By Jay Cost

« On the Biden Pick | HorseRaceBlog Home Page | Is That Robert Davi? »

Thoughts on the First Night

The networks did not start their coverage until 10, so their viewers only saw a media package on the Kennedy speech. Michelle Obama did not get started until around 10:40. She was done before 11. A few more thoughts from the journalists, then on to local news. After that, people saw McCain on Jay Leno.

So, my guess is that the electoral effects of tonight will be minimal. If you can be convinced by just 20 minutes of campaigning by a candidate's wife, you were probably persuaded a while ago.

Did it add to the larger campaign narrative Obama's operation wants to build? Maybe, but probably not much. I do think it was a "win" for Obama's campaign because Michelle looked great, she seemed warm and personable, their kids were adorable, and she gave a fine speech. Her brother was even appropriately nervous. That was charming. The first response from the network people all seemed positive. So, for whatever it's worth, that's a win.

Let's put aside the electoral implications - as the evening was worthwhile even if it swayed few voters. Barack Obama is an interesting candidate to watch. He has many political strengths, but they are often mixed in with his weaknesses.

Many of his strengths are not acquired skills, but rather just part of who he is. Take his speaking ability. Obama has done good work by refining his talent, but it's still mostly a gift from the Man upstairs. Ditto his family. On the night of her big debut, his wife was intelligent and likable and poised and clearly in love with her husband. His children were cute and sweet and just the perfect touch of impish.

But Obama has weaknesses, which were on display tonight as well. He had only a handful of lines, but he mixed up one he should have landed. He said he was in St. Louis when he was really in Kansas City. This kind of mistake is never a good thing. McCain said something nice about the Pittsburgh Steelers a few weeks ago, but it was a line he had initially said about the Green Bay Packers. The local paper reported the contradiction. My hunch is that it annoyed people here just a tiny bit. Obama did something similar tonight on network TV with Missouri's two largest cities. Fortunately for him, Sasha was there to bail him out!

It was a small fumble, but a fumble nonetheless. And it wasn't atypical. While Obama has many gifts, he doesn't have the best campaign discipline. The modern, mass media campaign is a grind. Excelling at it takes practice and commitment. You must remember minute details to be recalled on a moment's notice; you must be interesting and yet on message at the same time; you must smile on cue, and so on. Doing all that is an acquired skill, a discipline. Obama seems to be having a bit of a tough time with it.

That's not a deal-breaker by any stretch. Kerry had trouble with the discipline, and he lost by just 2 points. Gore couldn't quite get the rhythm right, yet he still won the popular vote. Bush is a master of the discipline, but the public doesn't listen to him anymore. The discipline is an asset, but it's not the most important one.