As regular readers of mine know, I am not usually one to make much of presidential debates. I have two major problems with analyzing them. First, it is quite easy to overestimate the importance of any given debate. The constructed context of the debate - the theme music, the stage design, the fact that the nominee is definitely standing on stage - inclines one to think that this event is more important than it actually is. Second, debate analysis too often is about personal taste, and therefore may be more of an indication of which candidate you like (and dislike) than who did well and who did not.

That being said, I think this debate is quite important for Fred Thompson. Republican elites everywhere will - I'll wager - be watching this debate. So will many rank-and-file Republican voters. And Thompson needs to impress them. He raised decent cash in Quarter 3. Now he needs to have a good debate performance.

The reason for this boils down to his "hook." Presidential campaigns have a bit in common with pop songs. Pop songs have hooks that try to attract listeners to tap their feet, sing along, and buy the single. Presidential campaigns have hooks, too. It is the basic pitch that will either attract or not attract the voters to vote for the candidate. Giuliani's hook is bringing his leadership of New York City to Washington. Romney's is bringing his business mindset and his ability to appeal to Democrats to Washington. McCain's is the demonstration in the last few years that his brand of "maverick Republicanism" has been the correct course of action. And so on.

Thompson's hook is different from those of the other three frontrunners. Thompson may be sufficiently qualified to be president - but he is not running on his qualifications. He's running on his principles and his personality. That is his hook. And it could very well play in the GOP primary. Conservative Republicans think that the GOP has fallen from favor because it has failed to govern conservatively. So, they are looking for a true conservative because they believe that, when the public hears conservative ideas in a clear and forthright manner, Republicans win. Thompson entered the race because he is the "only true conservative" frontrunner and because - so it is thought - he could communicate these principles clearly and convincingly to the public. Thompson's hook is thus that he believes and he can make others believe, too.

This is why the debate is more important to Thompson than the other major Republican candidates. His campaign hook is really the only one (among Republicans) that depends so much upon the capacity to communicate. He is running because he can talk to people - or so it is thought. Now he has to prove that he can. He has to convince Republicans that their initial, favorable impressions of him were accurate, that he can take the conservative message to the broader electorate.