The Washington Times reports this morning that John McCain expects to to raise only $3.7 million in the third quarter. By any metric, this is a low number. What happened?

It is important to appreciate that this low fundraising number is not a sign of further troubles. It is, rather, a further sign of troubles we already knew about. McCain's campaign began to get into trouble in July - the first month of the third quarter. This was when we learned about his second quarter fundraising (and spending!), and all of those McCain staffers began to go. The result of this trouble was that McCain was removed from the top tier of Republican candidates.

This is surely what has affected the fundraising numbers the Times reported today. Being out of the top tier, generally being out of the news cycle altogether, assuredly had a strong effect on the Republican donor base's attitude toward McCain. They felt disinclined to "waste" their money on McCain because he seemed doomed to lose. Indeed, the $3.7 million figure seems close to what second tier candidates could raise from their group of core loyalists.

It was only with the debate earlier in the month, followed by his "No Surrender" tour, that he started to make a comeback. But by that point, the third quarter was almost over.

So - can McCain come back? As I indicated last week - a comeback will be hard. Unlike the rest of the candidates in the top tier, McCain needs the media to keep him viable this fall. He simply does not have the money to reach voters the way that Clinton, Giuliani, Obama, and Romney can. This news story will probably damage his standing with the press - as some pressies might see this as a sign of further troubles, rather than a further sign of troubles. Minimally, these numbers will remind people of how much trouble McCain had in the summer, which is bad for his quest to return to relevance.