Fred Thompson will announce his candidacy this week - but many pundits think that it is over before it started. Thompson missed his "moment" by holding out through the summer.

I could not disagree with this more. Without commenting on the likelihood of Thompson being the GOP nominee, I think it is wrong to argue that his chances to acquire the nomination have decreased because he has waited.

Thompson's problem is not the late announcement. It is, rather, the fact that his campaign has been poorly run. But this poor management may not be what you think. Changing staffers early, giving speeches that fall flat, fundraising that is a little weak - all of these are normal for a candidate who is just starting out, who up until recently never contemplated being president. Holding this against Thompson fails to take into account the learning curve that comes with these sorts of affairs. Instead, Thompson's problem has been that he has allowed the media to interpret all of these events as problems of his campaign, rather than as its natural and expected birth pangs. Thompson has failed to manage the expectations of the media. This is something that a candidate at any stage needs to do - and Thompson has not done it as well as he could have.

Fortunately for Thompson, this perception of mismanagement is not all that consequential. The media analyzes politics as though it suffers from amnesia. Last month's judgments often have no bearing on this month's judgments. This works to Thompson's benefit. He can get "back on track" with a few skilled debate performances and a good third quarter fundraising report: a strong fall implies no consequences for his summer "weakness." I think this is one reason why Thompson feels comfortable entering the race "late." The media is saying that he is late to get in, and that he will have to pay a price - but Thompson is (correctly) betting that it will not hold him to that come November, so long as he performs well.

Importantly, a strong performance in the fall was all that it ever was going to take. Unless you are trying to get into the top tier, you cannot help yourself in the summer. You can only hurt yourself. If you look strong in August, that's all well and good - but it won't buy you any strength in the fall. You'll have to look strong then, too. In point of fact, if you don't look stronger, people will wonder, "What happened to him?" Meanwhile, weakness in August can derail your candidacy altogether. So, why bother in August?

This is why I think Thompson's late entrance, far from being part of his problem, is actually the best part of his candidacy. Thompson is the only one of the major candidates who seems to have seen through the mirage of a summer campaign that the media has created. Not only that, he has put himself in a position where he can turn it to his advantage. A late entrance followed by a strong initial performance creates great buzz at just the right time.

I would not underestimate his candidacy - especially based on flimsy evidence like a "controlling" wife or "weak" Q2 fundraising numbers. If he performs strongly this fall, all will be forgotten and the promise that many once saw in his candidacy will suddenly reappear.

-Jay Cost