Jim VandeHei's article today in the Politico underscored a point I made a few weeks ago about President Bush. In the wake of the immigration bill's defeat, I argued that this was the end of Bush's informal presidential powers. I wrote:

The failure for Bush on the immigration issue is, I think, fairly telling. He failed not because he lacked power [to set the agenda]. He was indeed able to induce Congress to take up an issue that he wanted it to take up. His failure was really due to an inability to induce legislators to alter current policy as he wants it altered. He no longer can put the "squeeze" on legislators and directly induce them to do what they would not otherwise do, at least when it comes to changing the status quo.

I also indicated that I thought that the immigration bill's failure would be Bush's last attempt to exercise this kind of power. He lost something of his presidency in that bill's demise.

However, this does not mean that he is a lame duck. His formal powers are - thanks to today's political circumstances - still vast.

If you look at Article II of the Constitution, you will see that the formal powers of the president are actually quite few in number. The president always has those powers - but what makes him the force in American politics that he can be is his set of informal powers. Richard Neustadt once summarized these as the ability that the president has to influence people to do what they would not otherwise do. It is clear to me that President Bush has not read Neustadt's classic treatise on presidential power - for he has not done any of the tasks Neustadt thinks the modern president must do to protect his informal powers. And so, they're all gone now.

But, the president still has his set of formal powers, thanks to Article II. These essentially amount to his capacity to protect the status quo as regards current public policy, his executive authority over the military, his authority to negotiate treaties, and appoint officers of the executive and judicial branches. In certain times, these powers imply very little influence. If, for instance, the nation is in a time of peace - the president's military authority means very little. If, for instance, the president wishes to change the status quo, his veto pen means very little.

This, then, is how lame ducks are produced. Lame ducks are presidents whose formal authorities give them very little influence in light of the political circumstances of the day.

Even though his informal powers are now essentially gone, Bush is not to be counted among these lame duck presidents. Reports VandeHei:

Yet there are very good reasons to believe the prevailing conventional wisdom on Iraq might turn out to be wrong once again.

The reasons are simple: the power of the presidency, the anguished feelings of many congressional Republicans and math. In short, Bush is in no mood to yield.

House and Senate Republicans still don't appear prepared to force him to. And a loyal group of GOP senators are prepared to back a Bush veto if Democrats ever succeed in limiting or ending the U.S. mission in Iraq.

"At the end of the day, all of this hand-wringing needs to be understood (in the context) of how Congress works: There will always be 33 of us, as long as there is not a complete meltdown, to support a military strategy that is aggressive and is not based on needs of the next election," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

This is why Bush is not to be trifled with - even if nobody outside the White House is taking his calls regarding domestic policy initiatives. As commander in chief, Bush has the power to use whatever tactics he wishes to use in Iraq. Democrats can pass legislation to change those tactics. However, they require his signature, which of course will not be forthcoming. They can then try to override his veto - but it should be clear from VandeHei's piece why legislative vetoes are so hard to override. On any controversial position, the minority-plus-the-president is usually large enough to block the majority. Bush will probably have 33% of at least one chamber on his side from now until the end of his term.

This is why I stop short of calling Bush a lame duck. The political circumstances of the day mean that his formal powers are very influential. The nation is at war, so Bush as commander in chief has final say over how that war is conducted. Meanwhile, he supports the status quo on the war while a majority in the legislature opposes it. His veto pen is what is keeping the status quo in place - it will continue to. The powers of Article II mean a great deal in today's politics - which is why Bush is still a powerful president.

-Jay Cost