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Florida 16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Key State Races: Governor | Senate | FL-13 | FL-22 (October 3) Foley’s abrupt resignation has moved this from a safe Republican hold to a top 5 Democratic pickup opportunity. Because of the timing of Foley’s resignation Republicans are unable to switch his name on the ballot or provide a write-in candidate, so Republicans wishing to vote for the GOP nominee Joe Negron will have to actually vote for the disgraced Mark Foley in November. (More below...)
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| An RTStrategies/CD survey taken after the Foley resignation showing the Democrat Mahoney only ahead 50% – 43% and 49% – 46% suggests the GOP still may have a shot at holding this seat. We suspect future polls will not be so kind to the GOP in this race. Joe Negron is a good fill-in for Foley and had this not happened five weeks in front of the election he certainly would have been favored to hold the seat over Mahoney. However, given the timing of the news and the fact that Kerry received 46% of the vote in 2004 and Gore 47% in 2000 Mahoney’s chances look pretty good. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||