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RealClearPolitics Electoral College
Clinton vs. McCain: No Toss Up States | Obama vs. McCain: Electoral Count
(270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win)
John McCain 168
69 Solid 
99 Leaning
Hillary Clinton 229
91 Solid 
138 Leaning
Toss Up 141
141 Toss Up
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| 1996 - 2004 Final Results | 2008 RealClear Averages | |||||
| State | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | McCain (R) | Clinton (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | Clinton +5.7 | Bush +0.1 | Bush +5.0 | 43.0 | 46.0 | Clinton +3.0 |
| Iowa | Clinton +10.4 | Gore +0.3 | Bush +0.7 | 45.0 | 42.3 | McCain +2.7 |
| Wisconsin | Clinton +10.3 | Gore +0.2 | Kerry +0.4 | 46.7 | 43.3 | McCain +3.4 |
| Michigan | Clinton +13.2 | Gore +5.2 | Kerry +3.4 | 44.7 | 41.7 | McCain +3.0 |
| Missouri | Clinton +6.3 | Bush +3.3 | Bush +7.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| New Hampshire | Clinton +9.9 | Bush +1.3 | Kerry +1.3 | 44.3 | 43.7 | McCain +0.6 |
| New Mexico | Clinton +7.2 | Gore +0.1 | Bush +0.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| Nevada | Clinton +1.0 | Bush +3.5 | Bush +2.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Washington | Clinton +12.5 | Gore +5.5 | Kerry +8.2 | 41.0 | 45.3 | Clinton +4.3 |
| Oregon | Clinton +8.1 | Gore +0.5 | Kerry +4.2 | 43.3 | 47.7 | Clinton +4.4 |
| Colorado | Dole +1.4 | Bush +8.4 | Bush +4.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| Kentucky | Clinton +0.9 | Bush +15.1 | Bush +19.9 | 47.7 | 46.0 | McCain +1.7 |
| North Carolina | Dole +4.7 | Bush +12.8 | Bush +12.4 | 41.7 | 41.0 | McCain +0.7 |
| Ohio | Clinton +6.4 | Bush +3.5 | Bush +2.1 | 42.0 | 50.3 | Clinton +8.3 |
| Pennsylvania | Clinton +9.2 | Gore +4.2 | Kerry +2.5 | 38.0 | 49.7 | Clinton +11.7 |
| Minnesota | Clinton +16.1 | Gore +2.4 | Kerry +3.5 | 41.3 | 49.7 | Clinton +8.4 |
| New Jersey | Clinton +17.8 | Gore +15.8 | Kerry +6.7 | 42.0 | 47.3 | Clinton +5.3 |
| Connecticut | Clinton +18.1 | Gore +17.5 | Kerry +10.3 | 41.3 | 47.7 | Clinton +6.4 |
| Indiana | Dole +5.5 | Bush +15.7 | Bush +20.7 | 49.0 | 42.8 | McCain +6.2 |
| Virginia | Dole +1.9 | Bush +8.1 | Bush +8.2 | 49.7 | 39.3 | McCain +10.4 |
| Tennessee | Clinton +2.4 | Bush +3.9 | Bush +14.3 | 49.7 | 42.3 | McCain +7.4 |
| California | Clinton +12.9 | Gore +11.8 | Kerry +9.9 | 37.5 | 50.3 | Clinton +12.8 |
| Texas | Dole +5.0 | Bush +21.3 | Bush +22.9 | 51.0 | 39.0 | McCain +12.0 |
| Arkansas | Clinton +16.9 | Bush +5.4 | Bush +9.7 | 38.3 | 51.7 | Clinton +13.4 |
| Montana | Dole +2.9 | Bush +25.0 | Bush +20.5 | 52.7 | 36.3 | McCain +16.4 |
| Georgia | Dole +1.2 | Bush +11.7 | Bush +16.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Mississippi | Dole +5.1 | Bush +16.9 | Bush +19.6 | 51.3 | 38.7 | McCain +12.6 |
| Louisiana | Clinton +12.1 | Bush +7.7 | Bush +14.5 | 49.0 | 41.0 | McCain +8.0 |
| New York | Clinton +28.9 | Gore +25.0 | Kerry +18.3 | 36.0 | 53.5 | Clinton +17.5 |
| Maine | Clinton +20.9 | Gore +5.1 | Kerry +9.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| West Virginia | Clinton +14.7 | Bush +6.3 | Bush +12.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| Alabama | Dole +6.6 | Bush +14.9 | Bush +25.7 | 56.3 | 34.7 | McCain +21.6 |