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North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Candidates

Kay Hagan

Kay Hagan (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Thom Tillis

Thom Tillis (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

North Carolina Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races:
NC-2 | NC-7

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012Pres | Gov | NC-7 | NC-8 | NC-11
2010: Senate | NC-2 | NC-4 | NC-7 | NC-8 | NC-11 | NC-13
2008: President | Senate | Governor | NC-8
2006: NC-11
2004: President | Senate | Governor | NC-11

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEHagan (D)Tillis (R)Spread
Final Results------47.349.0Tillis +1.7
RCP Average10/19 - 11/3----45.244.0Hagan +1.2
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/31333 LV2.74846Hagan +2
YouGov*10/25 - 10/311727 LV3.04441Hagan +3
Civitas (R)10/29 - 10/30600 LV4.04543Hagan +2
Harper (R)10/28 - 10/30511 LV4.34548Tillis +3
FOX News*10/28 - 10/30909 LV3.04342Hagan +1
CNN/Opinion Research*10/27 - 10/30559 LV4.04846Hagan +2
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/29982 LV3.04746Hagan +1
Elon University10/21 - 10/25687 LV3.74541Hagan +4
High Point/SurveyUSA*10/21 - 10/25802 LV3.54444Tie
NBC News/Marist*10/19 - 10/23756 LV3.64343Tie

All North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan
45.2Hagan (D)+1.2
44.0Tillis (R)
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Both parties are claiming early voting was good for them, which is consistent with the overall take on the race: it is close.

10/28/14 -- Hagan's lead continues to trickle away. But with only a week to go until Election Day, she may well be able to run out the clock.

10/17/14 -- Tillis has clearly narrowed the gap here, now that the Republican ad blitz is underway. We’ll have to wait for more polling to determine whether he has the lead or not.

9/23/14 -- The Democratic ad blitz has clearly taken its toll on Tillis, although Hagan has seen only a modest improvement in her numbers and remains stuck at around 45 percent. Still, Tillis has some major image repair to do if he wants to win this race.

9/8/14 -- This race has been remarkably stable. The only real wild card is Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh, who has polled well and peeled off more ballots from Tillis than from Hagan. Third parties tend to fade down the stretch (except when they don’t), so we'd expect things to tilt back Tillis' way. But we really have no way of knowing for sure.

----------Race Preview----------

Throughout its history, North Carolina has always had a substantial Republican presence in the northwest mountain area. The Democratic Party was split between progressives and conservatives, and as the national Democratic Party moved leftward, it created an opportunity for Republicans to fuse the more conservative Democrats with the Republican rump and create a majority.

Defense Impacts: An incumbent Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee seeks to defend her seat in a state with a large military population.

More on this race at RealClearDefense

Jesse Helms was the first Republican to succeed in bringing those conservatives into the GOP while, at the same time, northerners flocking to the Research Triangle Park brought an even more pronounced Republican bent to the state. For a while it looked like North Carolina would become a solidly red state.

But this didn’t happen, as moderate governors like Jim Hunt and Mike Easley kept some of the conservative Democrats in the fold, while suburbanites around RTP drifted toward the Democratic Party. In 2002, Elizabeth Dole successfully held Helms’ seat against Democrat Erskine Bowles. Dole was fairly quiet in the Senate, and drew what was thought to be a fairly mediocre opponent in state Sen. Kay Hagan. Dole led Hagan handily for much of 2008, often breaking 50 percent in the polls. But Hagan pulled close after the Democratic convention, and then broke the race open after the financial collapse. She led the Democratic ticket in the state, running ahead of both Barack Obama and gubernatorial candidate Bev Perdue.

Hagan herself has had a reasonably uneventful term. She faces two basic challenges. First, she has mostly backed the national Democratic agenda, and second, she can’t rely upon the surge in African-American turnout that accompanied Obama’s run for office and helped to propel her across the finish line. Democrats attempted to manipulate the Republican primary to increase the chances the GOP would elect a candidate who would implode, but voters nominated House Speaker Thom Tillis. He is the face of an unpopular legislature, but neither Obama nor Hagan is particularly popular in the state either. Polls show a tight race, but Hagan is below 45 percent, and is in deep trouble.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEHagan (D)Tillis (R)Spread
Final Results------47.349.0Tillis +1.7
RCP Average10/19 - 11/3----45.244.0Hagan +1.2
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/31333 LV2.74846Hagan +2
YouGov*10/25 - 10/311727 LV3.04441Hagan +3
Civitas (R)10/29 - 10/30600 LV4.04543Hagan +2
Harper (R)10/28 - 10/30511 LV4.34548Tillis +3
FOX News*10/28 - 10/30909 LV3.04342Hagan +1
CNN/Opinion Research*10/27 - 10/30559 LV4.04846Hagan +2
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/29982 LV3.04746Hagan +1
Elon University10/21 - 10/25687 LV3.74541Hagan +4
High Point/SurveyUSA*10/21 - 10/25802 LV3.54444Tie
NBC News/Marist*10/19 - 10/23756 LV3.64343Tie
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*10/16 - 10/231910 LV4.04441Hagan +3
SurveyUSA*10/16 - 10/20568 LV4.24643Hagan +3
PPP (D)10/16 - 10/18780 LV3.54744Hagan +3
Civitas (R)10/15 - 10/18600 RV4.04444Tie
SurveyUSA10/9 - 10/12554 LV4.24546Tillis +1
High Point*9/30 - 10/9584 LV4.14040Tie
Rasmussen Reports10/6 - 10/7970 LV3.04846Hagan +2
USA Today/Suffolk*10/4 - 10/7500 LV4.44745Hagan +2
NBC News/Marist*9/27 - 10/1665 LV3.84440Hagan +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*9/20 - 10/12002 LV3.04645Hagan +1
Civitas (R)9/25 - 9/28600 RV4.05043Hagan +7
CNN/Opinion Research*9/22 - 9/25595 LV4.04643Hagan +3
High Point*9/13 - 9/18410 LV5.04240Hagan +2
FOX News*9/14 - 9/16605 LV4.04136Hagan +5
PPP (D)9/11 - 9/141266 LV2.84642Hagan +4
SurveyUSA/Civitas (R)9/9 - 9/10490 LV4.54746Hagan +1
Rasmussen Reports9/8 - 9/101000 LV4.04539Hagan +6
American Insights (R)9/5 - 9/10459 LV4.65040Hagan +10
Elon University9/5 - 9/9629 LV3.94541Hagan +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*8/18 - 9/22059 LV3.04243Tillis +1
USA Today/Suffolk*8/16 - 8/19500 LV4.44543Hagan +2
PPP (D)8/14 - 8/17865 LV3.44342Hagan +1
Rasmussen Reports8/5 - 8/6750 LV4.04045Tillis +5
Civitas (R)7/28 - 7/29600 RV4.04647Tillis +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV3.54748Tillis +1
PPP (D)7/17 - 7/201062 RV3.04239Hagan +3
Civitas (R)6/18 - 6/22600 RV4.04846Hagan +2
PPP (D)6/12 - 6/151076 RV3.04238Hagan +4
Magellan Strategies (R)6/5 - 6/8700 LV3.74746Hagan +1
Civitas (R)5/20 - 5/22600 RV4.04348Tillis +5
PPP (D)5/9 - 5/11877 RV3.34141Tie
Rasmussen Reports5/7 - 5/8750 LV4.04445Tillis +1
Magellan Strategies (R)4/14 - 4/15804 LV3.54343Tie
NY Times/Kaiser4/8 - 4/15900 RV4.04240Hagan +2
PPP (D)4/3 - 4/6740 RV3.64341Hagan +2
SurveyUSA3/27 - 3/311489 LV2.64546Tillis +1
PPP (D)3/6 - 3/9884 RV3.34543Hagan +2
CEA/Hickman Analytics (D)2/17 - 2/20400 LV4.94541Hagan +4
American Insights (R)2/11 - 2/15611 RV4.03835Hagan +3
PPP (D)2/6 - 2/9708 RV3.74042Tillis +2
Rasmussen Reports1/22 - 1/23500 LV4.54047Tillis +7
PPP (D)1/9 - 1/121384 RV2.64243Tillis +1
PPP (D)12/5 - 12/81281 RV2.74442Hagan +2
PPP (D)11/8 - 11/11701 RV3.74442Hagan +2
PPP (D)9/6 - 9/9600 RV4.05136Hagan +15
PPP (D)8/8 - 8/11600 RV4.04739Hagan +8
PPP (D)7/12 - 7/14600 RV4.04938Hagan +11
PPP (D)6/12 - 6/14500 RV4.44540Hagan +5
PPP (D)5/17 - 5/20500 RV4.44841Hagan +7
PPP (D)4/11 - 4/14601 RV4.04939Hagan +10
PPP (D)3/7 - 3/10611 RV4.05036Hagan +14
PPP (D)2/7 - 2/10600 RV4.04638Hagan +8
PPP (D)1/10 - 1/13608 RV4.04737Hagan +10
PPP (D)12/6 - 12/9578 RV4.14838Hagan +10