Pennsylvania Senate - Sestak vs. Toomey
Pennsylvania Snapshot
RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: Governor | PA-3 | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10 | PA-11 | PA-12 | PA-13 | PA-15 | PA-17
----------PAST KEY RACES----------
2008: President |
PA-3 |
PA-10 |
PA-11
2006: Senate |
Governor |
PA-4 |
PA-6 |
PA-7 |
PA-8 |
PA-10
2004: President | Senate | PA-13
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Sestak (D) | Toomey (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 49.0 | 51.0 | Toomey +2.0 |
| RCP Average | 10/24 - 10/31 | -- | 45.0 | 49.5 | Toomey +4.5 |
| PPP (D) | 10/30 - 10/31 | 772 LV | 46 | 51 | Toomey +5 |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/28 - 10/31 | 474 LV | 44 | 48 | Toomey +4 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/25 - 10/30 | 1244 LV | 45 | 50 | Toomey +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/28 - 10/28 | 750 LV | 46 | 50 | Toomey +4 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 10/26 - 10/28 | 461 LV | 45 | 52 | Toomey +7 |
| Susquehanna | 10/24 - 10/27 | 800 LV | 44 | 46 | Toomey +2 |
|
|
 |  |
Race Analysis
10/30/10 -- Toomey's lead has stabilized a bit here. He's usually ahead, but within the error margin. He's favored, but not by a wide margin.
10/26/10 -- The polls are a bit all over the place here. Morning Call's tracking poll shows an eleven point swing from a week ago, while Reuters/Ipsos enters the fray with a poll showing a tie race. Without any crosstabs, it is difficult to get a sense of who has a better view of the race, but Toomey appears to have an overall lead.
10/20/10 -- Toomey's lead appears to have disappeared in the last few days of the campaign. Both PPP and Morning Call's tracking poll have Joe Sestak up a few points -- his first leads since May. Could Sestak's "waiting until we see the whites of their eyes" strategy work once again?
10/8/10 -- Toomey's lead seems to be holding up as we approach the closing days of the race, even as Sestak begins his ad barrage. If he wins it will be a real stunner, as he will be the most conservative Senator the state has elected in decades.
----------Race Preview---------
When Arlen Specter was born in 1930, Pennsylvania had 36 Congressional districts. All of them save for one – the 12th – elected Republicans. When Specter first entered public life it was a very different Pennsylvania: The western part of the state was heavily unionized and Democratic, the Philadelphia Republican machine had disappeared, and Republican strength was found in the Philly suburbs (including northeast Philly) and the mountainous interior of the state.
Today, the state is different once again. The Philly suburbs have moved toward the Democrats, while Pittsburgh has moved toward the Republicans. The Republican Party has changed as well; it is a more conservative entity, one that is much less welcoming toward liberal Republicans such as Specter. Specter left the Party in mid-2009 to avoid a primary challenge from Pat Toomey, only to lose the Democratic Primary to Congressman Joe Sestak.
The race between Toomey and Sestak is a study in contrasts. Both men represented areas in Congress that at least nominally favored the other party. Both are from the eastern portion of the state, leaving the west up for grabs. In a normal year, Sestak would probably win – Toomey’s economic conservatism isn’t a great match for this economically populist state. But in this year of tea parties, the more salient factor in the general election may be Sestak’s support of the Obama administration’s spending.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Sestak (D) | Toomey (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 49.0 | 51.0 | Toomey +2.0 |
| RCP Average | 10/24 - 10/31 | -- | 45.0 | 49.5 | Toomey +4.5 |
| PPP (D) | 10/30 - 10/31 | 772 LV | 46 | 51 | Toomey +5 |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/28 - 10/31 | 474 LV | 44 | 48 | Toomey +4 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/25 - 10/30 | 1244 LV | 45 | 50 | Toomey +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/28 - 10/28 | 750 LV | 46 | 50 | Toomey +4 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 10/26 - 10/28 | 461 LV | 45 | 52 | Toomey +7 |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/24 - 10/27 | 460 LV | 40 | 48 | Toomey +8 |
| Susquehanna | 10/24 - 10/27 | 800 LV | 44 | 46 | Toomey +2 |
| CNN/Time | 10/20 - 10/26 | 823 LV | 45 | 49 | Toomey +4 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/22 - 10/24 | 400 LV | 46 | 46 | Tie |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/21 - 10/24 | 437 LV | 42 | 47 | Toomey +5 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 10/18 - 10/24 | 489 LV | 36 | 43 | Toomey +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/21 - 10/21 | 750 LV | 44 | 48 | Toomey +4 |
| Morning Call Tracking | 10/16 - 10/19 | 403 LV | 44 | 41 | Sestak +3 |
| PPP (D) | 10/17 - 10/18 | 718 LV | 46 | 45 | Sestak +1 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/13 - 10/17 | 1046 LV | 46 | 48 | Toomey +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/12 - 10/12 | 750 LV | 39 | 49 | Toomey +10 |
| Morning Call | 9/28 - 10/4 | 577 LV | 39 | 46 | Toomey +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/29 - 9/29 | 750 LV | 40 | 49 | Toomey +9 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 9/26 - 9/28 | 468 LV | 42 | 51 | Toomey +9 |
| Suffolk University | 9/24 - 9/27 | 500 LV | 40 | 45 | Toomey +5 |
| Susquehanna | 9/23 - 9/26 | 800 LV | 42 | 45 | Toomey +3 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 9/20 - 9/26 | 436 LV | 29 | 38 | Toomey +9 |
| Morning Call | 9/18 - 9/23 | 445 LV | 39 | 46 | Toomey +7 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 9/21 - 9/21 | 1430 LV | 41 | 49 | Toomey +8 |
| CNN/Time | 9/17 - 9/21 | 741 LV | 44 | 49 | Toomey +5 |
| Quinnipiac | 9/15 - 9/19 | 684 LV | 43 | 50 | Toomey +7 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/18 - 9/18 | 1000 LV | 40 | 48 | Toomey +8 |
| Times Leader/Critical Insights | 9/14 - 9/16 | 600 LV | 36 | 40 | Toomey +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/13 - 9/13 | 750 LV | 41 | 49 | Toomey +8 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/11 - 9/11 | 1000 LV | 41 | 47 | Toomey +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/30 - 8/30 | 750 LV | 42 | 48 | Toomey +6 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 8/27 - 8/29 | 407 LV | 37 | 47 | Toomey +10 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 8/16 - 8/23 | 377 LV | 31 | 40 | Toomey +9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/16 - 8/16 | 750 LV | 40 | 48 | Toomey +8 |
| PPP (D) | 8/14 - 8/16 | 585 LV | 36 | 45 | Toomey +9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/28 - 7/28 | 750 LV | 39 | 45 | Toomey +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/14 - 7/14 | 750 LV | 38 | 45 | Toomey +7 |
| Quinnipiac | 7/6 - 7/11 | 1367 RV | 43 | 43 | Tie |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/29 - 6/29 | 500 LV | 39 | 45 | Toomey +6 |
| PPP (D) | 6/19 - 6/21 | 609 LV | 41 | 41 | Tie |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/2 - 6/2 | 500 LV | 38 | 45 | Toomey +7 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 5/24 - 5/26 | 600 LV | 43 | 40 | Sestak +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/19 - 5/19 | 500 LV | 46 | 42 | Sestak +4 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 5/10 - 5/12 | 600 LV | 40 | 45 | Toomey +5 |
| Quinnipiac | 5/4 - 5/10 | 1161 RV | 40 | 42 | Toomey +2 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 5/3 - 5/9 | 861 RV | 28 | 29 | Toomey +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/6 - 5/6 | 1000 LV | 40 | 42 | Toomey +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/12 - 4/12 | 1000 LV | 36 | 47 | Toomey +11 |
| Morning Call | 3/29 - 4/7 | 402 LV | 40 | 47 | Toomey +7 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/30 - 4/5 | 1412 RV | 34 | 42 | Toomey +8 |
| PPP (D) | 3/29 - 4/1 | 934 LV | 36 | 42 | Toomey +6 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 3/15 - 3/21 | 964 RV | 19 | 27 | Toomey +8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/15 - 3/15 | 1000 LV | 37 | 42 | Toomey +5 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 3/8 - 3/10 | 600 LV | 39 | 42 | Toomey +3 |
| Quinnipiac | 2/22 - 2/28 | 1452 RV | 36 | 39 | Toomey +3 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 2/15 - 2/21 | 954 RV | 22 | 25 | Toomey +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/8 - 2/8 | 1000 LV | 35 | 43 | Toomey +8 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 1/18 - 1/24 | 993 RV | 16 | 28 | Toomey +12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/18 - 1/18 | 1000 LV | 35 | 43 | Toomey +8 |
| Quinnipiac | 12/8 - 12/14 | 1381 RV | 35 | 40 | Toomey +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 12/8 - 12/8 | 1200 LV | 38 | 44 | Toomey +6 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 10/20 - 10/25 | 529 RV | 20 | 28 | Toomey +8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/13 - 10/13 | 1200 LV | 38 | 37 | Sestak +1 |
| Quinnipiac | 9/22 - 9/28 | 1100 RV | 35 | 38 | Toomey +3 |
| Franklin & Marshall | 8/25 - 8/31 | 562 RV | 22 | 26 | Toomey +4 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 8/10 - 8/12 | 600 LV | 42 | 41 | Sestak +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/11 - 8/11 | 1000 LV | 35 | 43 | Toomey +8 |
| Quinnipiac | 7/14 - 7/19 | 1173 RV | 35 | 39 | Toomey +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/16 - 6/16 | 500 LV | 41 | 35 | Sestak +6 |
| Quinnipiac | 5/20 - 5/26 | 1191 RV | 37 | 35 | Sestak +2 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 5/4 - 5/6 | 600 LV | 37 | 32 | Sestak +5 |