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ShareLouisiana Senate - Vitter vs. Melancon
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Vitter (R) | Melancon (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 56.6 | 37.7 | Vitter +18.9 |
| RCP Average | 8/21 - 10/24 | -- | 51.8 | 36.8 | Vitter +15.0 | Magellan Strategies (R) | 10/24 - 10/24 | 1347 LV | 52 | 35 | Vitter +17 | WWL-TV/Clarus Research | 10/21 - 10/24 | 700 LV | 50 | 38 | Vitter +12 | Rasmussen Reports | 8/30 - 8/30 | 500 LV | 54 | 33 | Vitter +21 | PPP (D) | 8/21 - 8/22 | 403 LV | 51 | 41 | Vitter +10 |
See All Louisiana Senate - Vitter vs. Melancon Polling Data
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Race Analysis
10/7/10 -- Melancon is playing the prostitution card, but Vitter's lead is growing, and he's increasingly above 50 percent in the polls. So far nothing has changed to indicate that Melancon is gaining any traction. And if the prostitution card doesn't do it, what will?
----------Race Preview---------
Like many southern states, Louisiana was long dominated by Democrats – from 1900 through 1964 there wasn’t a single Republican member of the statehouse, to say nothing of federal office. But like most southern states, this masked a competitive system – the state was split between the Catholic south and Protestant north, and between the populist Long and conservative anti-Long factions.
As the Democratic stranglehold on the South began collapsing, the state began electing Republicans, first to Congress, then as governor. But the state resisted sending a Republican to the Senate. There were near misses: John Breaux won in 1986 by six points, while Mary Landrieu’s 1996 margin of victory was only 5,000 votes. Republicans finally broke through in 2004 when Breaux retired and David Vitter won a majority of the votes in the open primary, avoiding a general election.
But Vitter got himself into trouble when his name showed up in the DC Madam’s address book. He drew a solid Democratic opponent in Congressman Charlie Melancon, and a credible primary opponent in former state Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor. Vitter handily survived his primary, and the bad Democratic year has helped keep his general election numbers above 50 percent.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Vitter (R) | Melancon (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 56.6 | 37.7 | Vitter +18.9 |
| RCP Average | 8/21 - 10/24 | -- | 51.8 | 36.8 | Vitter +15.0 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 10/24 - 10/24 | 1347 LV | 52 | 35 | Vitter +17 |
| WWL-TV/Clarus Research | 10/21 - 10/24 | 700 LV | 50 | 38 | Vitter +12 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 10/10 - 10/10 | 1107 LV | 51 | 35 | Vitter +16 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 9/19 - 9/19 | 1232 LV | 52 | 34 | Vitter +18 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/30 - 8/30 | 500 LV | 54 | 33 | Vitter +21 |
| PPP (D) | 8/21 - 8/22 | 403 LV | 51 | 41 | Vitter +10 |
| WWL-TV/Clarus Research | 8/15 - 8/16 | 600 RV | 48 | 36 | Vitter +12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/24 - 6/24 | 500 LV | 53 | 35 | Vitter +18 |
| PPP (D) | 6/12 - 6/13 | 492 LV | 46 | 37 | Vitter +9 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 6/10 - 6/13 | 1030 LV | 51 | 31 | Vitter +20 |
| SMOR/Grigsby (R) | 4/19 - 4/23 | 600 RV | 49 | 31 | Vitter +18 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/7 - 4/7 | 500 LV | 52 | 36 | Vitter +16 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/10 - 2/10 | 500 LV | 57 | 33 | Vitter +24 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/14 - 1/14 | 500 LV | 53 | 35 | Vitter +18 |
| SMOR/Grigsby (R) | 10/12 - 10/15 | 600 LV | 48 | 36 | Vitter +12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/5 - 10/5 | 500 LV | 46 | 36 | Vitter +10 |
| PPP (D) | 7/17 - 7/19 | 727 LV | 44 | 32 | Vitter +12 |
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