RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Kentucky Senate

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Candidates

Rand Paul (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Jack Conway (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Kentucky Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races: KY-3 | KY-6

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Paul (R)	Conway (D)	Spread
Final Results	--	--	55.8	44.2	Paul +11.6
RCP Average	10/24 - 10/30	--	51.8	40.8	Paul +11.0
PPP (D)	10/28 - 10/30	1021 LV	55	40	Paul +15
Rasmussen Reports	10/27 - 10/27	750 LV	53	41	Paul +12
CN\|2/Braun Research	10/25 - 10/27	800 LV	47	39	Paul +8
SurveyUSA	10/24 - 10/27	637 LV	52	43	Paul +9

See All Kentucky Senate - Paul vs. Conway Polling Data

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Race Analysis

10/26/10 -- It looks like "aqua Buddha" might have backfired, much like Elizabeth Dole's "Godless" ad in 2008 and George Allen's comments on Jim Webb's racy scenes in his books in 2006. Of course in both cases the candidates saw the writing on the wall and attempted a Hail Mary; it may be the same story here.

10/20/10 -- The polls show a definite tightening here. It is unclear whether Conway's "Aqua Buddha" ad is a bridge too far, or whether it will convince Kentuckians that Paul is a bridge too far. We'll see on election night. It's worth noting that most of this tightening comes from Paul's numbers falling, rather than Conway's numbers improving.

9/30/10 -- Some recent polls have shown a closer race here, including a SurveyUSA poll that shows Paul with just a two-point lead. By contrast, the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows an 11-point Paul lead. What all the polls agree on is that there are still enough undecideds out there for Conway to pull off the win. If the remainder of the undecideds are people who have doubts about Paul, the upset isn't out of the question.

----------Race Preview---------

Kentucky politics can largely be explained by the state’s congressional districts. The 1st and 2nd Districts are (roughly) the Jackson Purchase and Pennyrile areas of the state, which vote like the Deep South. The 3rd and 6th Districts represent urban Louisville and greater Lexington, while the 4th District is the Republican Cincinnati and Louisville suburbs. The 5th District is an amalgam of two older districts, one of which was old mountain Republican territory, and one of which was heavily unionized and Democratic coal mining country. The name of the game for Republicans is to run well in the 4th and 5th and hold their ground in the 1st and 2nd, while Democrats try to add to their bases in Louisville, Lexington, and the coal mining areas of the 5th.

After witnessing Senator Jim Bunning’s near-defeat at the hands of then-obscure state Senator Dan Mongiardo in 2004 and Governor Ernie Fletcher’s disastrous re-election campaign in 2007, Republicans succeeded in convincing Bunning not to seek re-election. Both sides had competitive primaries. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Mongiardo lost to Attorney General Jack Conway. On the Republican side, Secretary of State Trey Grayson was badly beaten by libertarian upstart Rand Paul.

Paul has made a series of missteps, including an ambiguous commitment to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. But Conway had to tack leftward to win his primary, and supported the Democrats’ health care bill and has supported cap-and-trade legislation in the past – dangerous positions in a state where the President sports a 40 percent approval rating. This could be a situation where the state’s typical alignment is reversed, and Paul runs weaker in the suburban 4th district, while Conway runs behind in the coal regions of the state and in the Pennyrile.

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Paul (R)	Conway (D)	Spread
Final Results	--	--	55.8	44.2	Paul +11.6
RCP Average	10/24 - 10/30	--	51.8	40.8	Paul +11.0
PPP (D)	10/28 - 10/30	1021 LV	55	40	Paul +15
Rasmussen Reports	10/27 - 10/27	750 LV	53	41	Paul +12
CN\|2/Braun Research	10/25 - 10/27	800 LV	47	39	Paul +8
SurveyUSA	10/24 - 10/27	637 LV	52	43	Paul +9
CNN/Time	10/20 - 10/26	785 LV	50	43	Paul +7
PPP (D)	10/21 - 10/24	900 LV	53	40	Paul +13
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen	10/23 - 10/23	1000 LV	50	43	Paul +7
Mason-Dixon	10/18 - 10/19	625 LV	48	43	Paul +5
Rasmussen Reports	10/18 - 10/18	500 LV	47	42	Paul +5
CN\|2/Braun Research	10/4 - 10/6	826 LV	43	40	Paul +3
Rasmussen Reports	9/29 - 9/29	500 LV	49	38	Paul +11
SurveyUSA	9/21 - 9/23	611 LV	49	47	Paul +2
Daily Kos/PPP (D)	9/11 - 9/12	959 LV	49	42	Paul +7
Rasmussen Reports	9/7 - 9/7	500 LV	54	39	Paul +15
CNN/Time	9/2 - 9/7	869 RV	46	46	Tie
SurveyUSA	8/30 - 9/1	561 LV	55	40	Paul +15
CN\|2/Braun Research	8/30 - 9/1	802 LV	42	37	Paul +5
Rasmussen Reports	8/17 - 8/17	500 LV	51	41	Paul +10
CN\|2/Braun Research	8/16 - 8/18	801 LV	41	42	Conway +1
Reuters/Ipsos	8/13 - 8/15	435 LV	45	40	Paul +5
CN\|2/Braun Research	8/2 - 8/4	802 LV	41	31	Paul +10
SurveyUSA	7/27 - 7/29	568 LV	51	43	Paul +8
CN\|2/Braun Research	7/19 - 7/21	803 LV	41	38	Paul +3
Rasmussen Reports	7/20 - 7/20	750 LV	49	41	Paul +8
PPP (D)	6/28 - 6/30	625 RV	43	43	Tie
Rasmussen Reports	6/28 - 6/28	500 LV	49	42	Paul +7
Rasmussen Reports	6/1 - 6/1	500 LV	49	41	Paul +8
SurveyUSA	5/25 - 5/27	569 LV	51	45	Paul +6
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**	5/24 - 5/26	600 LV	44	41	Paul +3
Rasmussen Reports	5/19 - 5/19	500 LV	59	34	Paul +25
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**	5/10 - 5/12	600 LV	42	39	Paul +3
PPP (D)	5/1 - 5/2	946 RV	41	40	Paul +1
Rasmussen Reports	4/28 - 4/28	500 LV	47	38	Paul +9
Rasmussen Reports	3/31 - 3/31	500 LV	50	36	Paul +14
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**	3/15 - 3/17	600 LV	45	39	Paul +6
Rasmussen Reports	3/2 - 3/2	500 LV	49	34	Paul +15
Rasmussen Reports	2/2 - 2/2	500 LV	47	39	Paul +8
Rasmussen Reports	1/6 - 1/6	500 LV	46	38	Paul +8
PPP (D)	12/18 - 12/21	1199 RV	42	36	Paul +6
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**	8/31 - 9/2	600 LV	37	41	Conway +4