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ShareIowa Senate - Grassley vs. Conlin
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Grassley (R) | Conlin (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 64.5 | 33.2 | Grassley +31.3 |
| Des Moines Register | 10/26 - 10/29 | 805 LV | 61 | 30 | Grassley +31 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/23 - 9/23 | 500 LV | 55 | 37 | Grassley +18 |
| Des Moines Register | 9/19 - 9/22 | 550 LV | 61 | 30 | Grassley +31 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/5 - 8/5 | 500 LV | 55 | 35 | Grassley +20 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/14 - 6/14 | 500 LV | 54 | 37 | Grassley +17 |
| KCCI/Research 2000 | 5/31 - 6/2 | 600 LV | 50 | 42 | Grassley +8 |
| PPP (D) | 5/25 - 5/27 | 1277 LV | 57 | 31 | Grassley +26 |
| KCCI/Research 2000 | 5/3 - 5/5 | 600 LV | 49 | 40 | Grassley +9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/29 - 4/29 | 500 LV | 53 | 40 | Grassley +13 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/17 - 3/17 | 500 LV | 55 | 36 | Grassley +19 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/18 - 2/18 | 500 LV | 53 | 36 | Grassley +17 |
| KCCI/Research 2000 | 2/15 - 2/17 | 600 LV | 56 | 35 | Grassley +21 |
Race Analysis
9/29/10 -- Polls are finally starting to show Grassley inching toward 60 percent, which really makes it next-to-impossible for Conlin to win. This state is becoming safe for the GOP.
----------Race Preview---------
Iowa was initially one of the most heavily Republican states in the country. From 1858 until 1924 the state had never elected a Democratic senator. Until 1990, it never re-elected one. The GOP’s grip on the state began to weaken in the 1960s, when the state’s dovish tendencies and history of support for social reform movements moved it toward the Democrats. By 1974, the state had only one Republican congressman: Charles Grassley.
Grassley defeated Senator John Culver (father of the current Governor) in the Reagan landslide of 1980. Grassley’s voting record has been generally conservative; he is roughly in the middle of the Senate’s Republican caucus. The 77-year-old toyed with retirement this cycle, but ultimately chose to run again.
Some Democrats had speculated that the Grassley might be vulnerable this cycle against former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin, but the polling hasn’t borne this out. The underlying dynamics of this cycle would have to change considerably for Conlin to win.
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