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ShareColorado Senate - Buck vs. Bennet
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Buck (R) | Bennet (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 46.8 | 47.7 | Bennet +0.9 |
| RCP Average | 10/26 - 10/31 | -- | 49.3 | 46.3 | Buck +3.0 | PPP (D) | 10/30 - 10/31 | 1059 LV | 49 | 48 | Buck +1 | FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/30 - 10/30 | 1000 LV | 50 | 46 | Buck +4 | McClatchy/Marist | 10/26 - 10/28 | 615 LV | 49 | 45 | Buck +4 |
See All Colorado Senate - Buck vs. Bennet Polling Data
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Race Analysis
10/30/10 -- Buck's numbers have improved in the latest polls, and he's now opening up a bit of a lead again. Turnout will be key.
10/20/10 -- It looks like PPP might have been the start of a countertrend. Reports that Buck refused to prosecute a rape case and a gaffe made during a debate seem to have been setbacks. Bennet is an incumbent at 45 percent, but he is an appointee, so the "incumbent rule" probably isn't 100 percent applicable to him.
10/7/10 -- Buck seems to have opened up a lead -- most pollsters now have him approaching 50 percent. It remains to be seen whether the PPP showing Bennet in the lead is an outlier or the beginning of a counter-trend.
----------Race Preview---------
Few states swing the partisan makeup of their Senate delegation as wildly as Colorado. In the 1960s, the state sent two Republicans to Congress. By 1975, it had two Democrats. The 1980s saw a split delegation, and in the 1990s, after Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell switched to the Republican Party, there were again two Republicans. But in 2004 the state replaced Campbell with Ken Salazar, and in 2008 Mark Udall replaced retiring Senator Wayne Allard with a 10 point win over former Congressman Bob Schaffer.
In 2010, President Obama appointed Salazar as his Secretary of the Interior. Governor Bill Ritter in turn shocked everyone by appointing Superintendent of Denver Public Schools Michael Bennet as Salazar's replacement. Bennet's voting record has placed him in the center of the Democratic caucus, and somewhat to Udall’s right. Like Blanche Lincoln, he earned a primary challenge from the left and managed to survive.
On the GOP side, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, who has made some unforced errors of his own, earned the GOP nod in a tight race over former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. Buck has fared about as well as Norton in polling against Bennet, who has never run a competitive statewide race, and suffers from a lack of charisma. Bennet's approval ratings are in the 30s, so he will probably hope that the divisive GOP governor's race brings down the entire statewide ticket.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Buck (R) | Bennet (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 46.8 | 47.7 | Bennet +0.9 |
| RCP Average | 10/26 - 10/31 | -- | 49.3 | 46.3 | Buck +3.0 |
| PPP (D) | 10/30 - 10/31 | 1059 LV | 49 | 48 | Buck +1 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/30 - 10/30 | 1000 LV | 50 | 46 | Buck +4 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 10/26 - 10/28 | 615 LV | 49 | 45 | Buck +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/25 - 10/25 | 750 LV | 48 | 44 | Buck +4 |
| CNN/Time | 10/20 - 10/26 | 829 LV | 47 | 46 | Buck +1 |
| PPP (D) | 10/21 - 10/23 | 818 LV | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Denver Post/SurveyUSA | 10/19 - 10/21 | 621 LV | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/15 - 10/17 | 405 LV | 48 | 45 | Buck +3 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/16 - 10/16 | 1000 LV | 46 | 45 | Buck +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/14 - 10/14 | 750 LV | 47 | 45 | Buck +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/3 - 10/3 | 750 LV | 50 | 45 | Buck +5 |
| PPP (D) | 9/30 - 10/2 | 834 LV | 45 | 46 | Bennet +1 |
| Denver Post/SurveyUSA | 9/28 - 9/30 | 647 LV | 48 | 43 | Buck +5 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 9/26 - 9/28 | 537 LV | 50 | 42 | Buck +8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/27 - 9/27 | 750 LV | 51 | 43 | Buck +8 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/25 - 9/25 | 1000 LV | 47 | 43 | Buck +4 |
| CNN/Time | 9/17 - 9/21 | 860 LV | 49 | 44 | Buck +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/14 - 9/14 | 750 LV | 49 | 45 | Buck +4 |
| POS/FM3 | 8/28 - 9/1 | 473 LV | 40 | 43 | Bennet +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/29 - 8/29 | 750 LV | 49 | 45 | Buck +4 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 8/20 - 8/22 | 453 LV | 49 | 40 | Buck +9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/11 - 8/11 | 750 LV | 46 | 41 | Buck +5 |
| PPP (D) | 8/7 - 8/8 | 1015 RV | 43 | 46 | Bennet +3 |
| Denver Post/SurveyUSA | 7/27 - 7/29 | 950 RV | 43 | 43 | Tie |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/26 - 7/26 | 500 LV | 48 | 42 | Buck +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/8 - 7/8 | 500 LV | 48 | 39 | Buck +9 |
| Denver Post/SurveyUSA | 6/15 - 6/17 | 1565 RV | 46 | 43 | Buck +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/7 - 6/7 | 500 LV | 46 | 41 | Buck +5 |
| PPP (D) | 5/14 - 5/16 | 1060 LV | 39 | 45 | Bennet +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/3 - 5/3 | 500 LV | 48 | 41 | Buck +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/5 - 4/5 | 500 LV | 44 | 40 | Buck +4 |
| PPP (D) | 3/5 - 3/8 | 580 LV | 40 | 46 | Bennet +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/2 - 3/2 | 500 LV | 44 | 38 | Buck +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/2 - 2/2 | 500 LV | 45 | 41 | Buck +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/13 - 1/13 | 500 LV | 43 | 38 | Buck +5 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 1/11 - 1/13 | 600 LV | 38 | 41 | Bennet +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 12/8 - 12/8 | 500 LV | 42 | 38 | Buck +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/9 - 9/9 | 500 LV | 37 | 43 | Bennet +6 |
| PPP (D) | 8/14 - 8/16 | 969 LV | 35 | 39 | Bennet +4 |
| PPP (D) | 4/17 - 4/19 | 1050 LV | 34 | 40 | Bennet +6 |
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